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Tuesday, July 26: Orioles vs Rays


SteveA

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Just now, mrbig1 said:

Looks like we're going to win this game via the solo homerun.

The way McClanahan is beasting, these few paragraphs from Petriello in a Savant website story today seem relevant.

So you’re a contender, or at least you think you might be one. You’re looking ahead to the postseason and how your lineup might square up against the best pitching in the land. You’re wondering if you need a power bat, and the answer is: Yes, you do need a power bat. That’s because, despite the myth that power doesn’t play in October and small ball wins pennants, power plays extremely well in the playoffs. How could it not?

We explored this in great detail in 2020, but the short version is that because pitching gets better -- not only do the worst pitching teams go home, but the surviving teams use their best pitchers more aggressively -- offense goes down, and so the thing that’s guaranteed to score at least one run becomes even more important.

 

To put it in stark numbers, teams that outhomer their opponents have won 77% of the time in the regular season since 2020 ... and teams that have done that have won 90% of the time in the postseason. You might remember seeing last postseason that teams that hit more homers went 25-2; you definitely remember that Jorge Soler did not win World Series MVP for his sacrifice-bunting skills.

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