WAA through 8/1/22

[Filmstudy]

Wins Above Average (WAA) and its companion WAA% are the number of wins a player adds to an otherwise .500 team and the winning percentage with that player and an otherwise .500 team, respectively.  

The 2022 Orioles with at least 200 PAs:

Odor: WAA -1.4, WAA% .485

Mountcastle: -0.2, .498

Santander: 0.3, .503

Mancini: 0.6, .507

Mateo: 0.9, .510

Hays: 1.1, .512

Mullins: 1.4, .514

Urias: 1.5, .520

Rutschman: 1.5, .526

A few observations:

1. There is no justification I can see to keep Odor in the lineup with the other options the organization has at 2nd base, starting with Vavra

2. Mountcastle is cheap and has flashed, but he needs to do more to play a lead role for a contender

3. Santander and Mancini are both barely above average players for their positions when defense is included.  That certainly has some value and you can do a lot worse if you assume a replacement-level player otherwise, but either would have to play significantly better to play a lead role on a contender.

4. Mateo's contributions, particularly of late, don't do anything to free up the logjam at SS in the organization.  Amazing he's doing so much with a 78 OPS+, but we should be used to it with Mark Belanger touting a 68 career OPS+ and .509 career WAA.  The problem for me with Mateo is his current level of play is not stable with his walk rate.  He could fall off the table as a hitter with his lack of selectivity or improve his selectivity and become significantly more valuable if he could bump his OPS+ into the 90-100 range.

4. Hays and Mullins have played well.  Either can contribute to a contender, and each will be salary/value considerations when they get to free agency or the previous trade deadlines.

5. I don't know what to make of Urias.  His OBP is way off this year, but he's still at 106 OPS+.  At 28, however, we probably need to expect decline, which seems unfair given he's had less than 600 ML PAs, but also happens to be his 3-year trend.  Despite the excellent WAA%, his role may be reduced in 2023 with Henderson, Westburg, and Vavra all pushing for time and others like Ortiz and Hernaiz in the pipeline.

6. Rutschman is not only the heart and soul of this team, but easily the team's best player in 2022.  The 2023 Orioles chance to contend from their starting offensive players will be built around him, Henderson, Mullins, and Hays.  Mateo, Mountcastle, Westburg, Vavra, and Stowers are also reasonable chances to provide .500+ play, but none is a sure thing.

 

Edited August 2, 2022 by Filmstudy

[MurphDogg]

This isn't Lake Wobegon where everyone has to be above average.

You aren't going to find much disagreement that Odor needs to be replaced and we all wish Mountcastle was doing a little bit better.

But the Astros have 1300 plate appearances from players with a negative WAA and they are on a 104 win pace. Meanwhile the Orioles have fewer than 1200 plate appearances with such players.

The Astros only have 4 players with a WAA over 0.6, while the Orioles have 5.

The bottom line is that the offense is good enough to compete, once Odor is replaced. Especially if his at bats are replaced by someone who ends up well above average like we hope Gunnar Henderson will end up.

 

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

This isn't Lake Wobegon where everyone has to be above average.

You aren't going to find much disagreement that Odor needs to be replaced and we all wish Mountcastle was doing a little bit better.

But the Astros have 1300 plate appearances from players with a negative WAA and they are on a 104 win pace. Meanwhile the Orioles have fewer than 1200 plate appearances with such players.

The Astros only have 4 players with a WAA over 0.6, while the Orioles have 5.

The bottom line is that the offense is good enough to compete, once Odor is replaced. Especially if his at bats are replaced by someone who ends up well above average like we hope Gunnar Henderson will end up.

 

I have a funny feeling that Hyde will want to hang onto Odor through the end of the season. 

[btdart20]

10 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

This isn't Lake Wobegon where everyone has to be above average.

You aren't going to find much disagreement that Odor needs to be replaced and we all wish Mountcastle was doing a little bit better.

But the Astros have 1300 plate appearances from players with a negative WAA and they are on a 104 win pace. Meanwhile the Orioles have fewer than 1200 plate appearances with such players.

The Astros only have 4 players with a WAA over 0.6, while the Orioles have 5.

The bottom line is that the offense is good enough to compete, once Odor is replaced. Especially if his at bats are replaced by someone who ends up well above average like we hope Gunnar Henderson will end up.

 

Agree with the idea that not every position has to be studs.  But we do need more studs in more roster spots.  The O’s don’t have the Astros rotation.  And it’s not in the pipeline either.  The Astros don’t face the NYY and TOR offense as much.  If we don’t have the pitching, then we have to have better position players.  We do have some bats on the cusp.

(FWIW I dream of the day where we’re legit contenders AND have the SP depth to trade away.  Keep stacking talent…)

[Filmstudy]

22 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

This isn't Lake Wobegon where everyone has to be above average.

You aren't going to find much disagreement that Odor needs to be replaced and we all wish Mountcastle was doing a little bit better.

But the Astros have 1300 plate appearances from players with a negative WAA and they are on a 104 win pace. Meanwhile the Orioles have fewer than 1200 plate appearances with such players.

The Astros only have 4 players with a WAA over 0.6, while the Orioles have 5.

The bottom line is that the offense is good enough to compete, once Odor is replaced. Especially if his at bats are replaced by someone who ends up well above average like we hope Gunnar Henderson will end up.

 

If you look at the O's WAA across the board they should be good enough to compete with 5.5 (pitching included) being the 4th highest total in the AL.  Sadly, a team that is projected to be 11 games over .500 and 2nd in the Wild Card race by WAA is only 1 over in actuality.