Why Didn't the O's Trade Santander?

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Even it is the good 3/4 of the year and the other 1/4 stunk?

Seems like the definition of MVP

I agree.  16-24 before he arrived; 37-27 since then.  It’s not all his doing, but he’s been a huge factor.   

Just playing it out, 37-27 is .578 baseball.  If we did that the rest of the way, that would be an 86 or 87 win team.  Right now I’d bet the under, but betting against Adley is dangerous.  
 

[RVAOsFan]

I think Elias was working on trading an OF yesterday but I am starting to think it wasn't Santander.  My guess is he tried to move Mullins or Hays in an attempt to get a starting pitcher with some control but it fell through.  This is the only sense I can make of bringing in Phillips.

[oriole]

Prior to yesterday, I was excited to see what Santander could bring in via trade. After seeing the type of players Elias was getting back from other trades, I’m happy to see he stayed. We’d have gotten a pitcher who is old for their league but still can’t get guys out and another with a peg leg. 
 

Obviously, I’m being sarcastic/dramatic but the point stands. Elias either wasn’t being offered anyone of actual value or Elias thinks himself a wizard. I’m glad that the rest of the team stayed put. 
 

Anyways, regarding OP, my guess is 1.

[TheWall]

4 minutes ago, oriole said:

Prior to yesterday, I was excited to see what Santander could bring in via trade. After seeing the type of players Elias was getting back from other trades, I’m happy to see he stayed. We’d have gotten a pitcher who is old for their league but still can’t get guys out and another with a peg leg. 
 

Obviously, I’m being sarcastic/dramatic but the point stands. Elias either wasn’t being offered anyone of actual value or Elias thinks himself a wizard. I’m glad that the rest of the team stayed put. 
 

Anyways, regarding OP, my guess is 1.

You don't think trading 2 months of a slumping DH for our 3rd and 4th best pitching prospects is good business? 

Edited August 3, 2022 by TheWall

[interloper]

This probably isn't actually true, but it feels a bit like Elias threw Hyde a bone and held off on selling Santander since he can still trade him this offseason. Likewise with Lyles, he's the only guy holding the rotation together. 

Now, again, this probably isn't actually how it went down. But it's odd, and even for me a bit annoying, that we didn't trade Santander to make room for Stowers and others. Perhaps that was a bridge too far for how well the team has been playing. Both Mancini and Lopez are guys the team could more or less afford to lose without missing a beat. 

 

[BirdinBama]

#1, it's that simple.

[oriole]

43 minutes ago, TheWall said:

You don't think trading 2 months of a slumping DH for our 3rd and 4th best pitching prospects is good business? 

I get that the optics are good but I don’t like either players chances of making it. McDermott isn’t going to stop walking hitters the higher he progresses and Johnson will be clogging up the 40 man (during the off-season and post-TJ IL time) and using up all his options while rehabbing and working his way up from high A ball. By the time he has a couple seasons experience in AA and AAA, he will be out of options during what we all are hoping to be a competitive season. If Elias didn’t grab a couple of highly flawed but interesting prospects then he’d have ended up with a couple 18 year old lottery tickets so I recognize that, on paper, it looks like a nice haul for Mancini. But this team is overachieving and close to a playoff appearance and a couple key players were traded for the “future” when honestly, none of the 6 pitchers that were traded for are likely to make any real contributions to future teams. 
 

To keep my rambling on topic for the post…Santander probably would’ve netted a similar return to Lopez so I’m happy Elias made the choice to keep him. 

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, Sydnor said:

I think it’s probably 1 and 2, but I am also not convinced that he should be traded instead of Hays or perhaps Mountcastle. I posted different stats in a different post and don’t want to rehash them all here, but Santander leads the team in wRC+. He has better offensive numbers across the board than Hays in terms of xBA, xSLG, BB%, etc. They both have been worth -6 OAA. Santander has a better approach. He has 1 year less of control and is 7 months older. Both have had their share of injuries. Santander fits the current dimensions of Camden Yards better as a switch hitter. If you want to move an outfielder (or Mountcastle because I’m confident Santander can play first and he has experience there in the minors with Cleveland), why not wait until the off-season when more teams may be in the market. See who brings you the best return relative to expected production. Keeping Santander might make the most sense because his bat is likely to be among the best on the team. 

I agree that it's a combo of 1 and 2.  Santander has been pretty consistent for us this year.

It also seems that Santander has 'bought into' the team hitting philosophy.  In general, management likes employees who buy into the business plan.  That combined with the longer team control horizon probably raised the rate of return.

[NashLumber]

The return wasn't there, I'm guessing. Also, potential trading partners may also be looking at '23 and may have a clearer picture of what they may want to part with in the offseason to get such a piece for their '23 run. 

[vab]

Elias just didn't get what he wanted and wasn't in a position where he had to do something. Same thing happened with Mancini at last year's trade deadline. I thought somebody would go hard after Santander once some of the top guys were gone but I guess not hard enough. 

[sportsfan8703]

99% chance that Santander gets traded this offseason. It would be selling high and we have other OFs beating down the door. 

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

99% chance that Santander gets traded this offseason. It would be selling high and we have other OFs beating down the door. 

Could we get a Lopez or Mancini type package for him?  More?  Less?

[DrungoHazewood]

18 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Could we get a Lopez or Mancini type package for him?  More?  Less?

Two years under team control at decent arb prices.  Is about as good as Mancini, arguably a bit better.  So should net a higher return.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 8/3/2022 at 9:32 AM, RVAOsFan said:

I think Elias was working on trading an OF yesterday but I am starting to think it wasn't Santander.  My guess is he tried to move Mullins or Hays in an attempt to get a starting pitcher with some control but it fell through.  This is the only sense I can make of bringing in Phillips.

I think Hays or Mullins will be traded this offseason, because they can bring a much better return than Santander.  Santander is probably a slightly better hitter than Hays or Mullins although not as good defensively.  I'm thinking Mullins is going to be the one traded and that's why Phillips was picked up. 

[RZNJ]

On 8/3/2022 at 10:43 AM, oriole said:

I get that the optics are good but I don’t like either players chances of making it. McDermott isn’t going to stop walking hitters the higher he progresses and Johnson will be clogging up the 40 man (during the off-season and post-TJ IL time) and using up all his options while rehabbing and working his way up from high A ball. By the time he has a couple seasons experience in AA and AAA, he will be out of options during what we all are hoping to be a competitive season. If Elias didn’t grab a couple of highly flawed but interesting prospects then he’d have ended up with a couple 18 year old lottery tickets so I recognize that, on paper, it looks like a nice haul for Mancini. But this team is overachieving and close to a playoff appearance and a couple key players were traded for the “future” when honestly, none of the 6 pitchers that were traded for are likely to make any real contributions to future teams. 
 

To keep my rambling on topic for the post…Santander probably would’ve netted a similar return to Lopez so I’m happy Elias made the choice to keep him. 

If they converted McDermott to a reliever, he'd probably be here next year sometime.   That looked like closer stuff to me.   You're probably right about him as a starter but that's always the hope.

Odds are always against the prospects so I'm not going to argue for Johnson, Povich, and McDermott but there is strength in numbers.   I like the odds that we get something good from this group.

Edited August 11, 2022 by RZNJ