Are these Walltimore homer numbers correct?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Yes.  By hitting them to CF and RF.   Half joking.   Yes, when he gets a hold of one it's still going out as opposed to Hays who pretty much needs to pull it down the line.

Hays does have the 12th longest HR in the majors this year, a 464 foot blast that reached the second deck in the LF stages at OPACY.  But I’d agree Mountcastle generally hits for greater distance.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hays does have the 12th longest HR in the majors this year, a 464 foot blast that reached the second deck in the LF stages at OPACY.  But I’d agree Mountcastle generally hits for greater distance.  

Yes, I saw that and mentioned it.   I was surprised.   His longest last year was 421 so that's a pretty big difference.

[rm5678]

1 hour ago, dtk9119 said:

Not sure about the accuracy but anecdotally I do not remember NEARLY as many opponent HRs as in past years. Hard to compare to 18, 19, 21 bc the pitching was so bad but the numbers certainly "seem" about right. 

Yes, I remember Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres hitting many home runs to left field that would no longer go out of the ballpark.

[eddie83]

58 minutes ago, deward said:

I think the idea that changing the park has suddenly made O's pitchers mentally tougher is way overblown. Plenty of pitchers have had success at OPCY under the old dimensions. Didn't seem to be an issue for Mussina, Miguel Gonzalez, Chris Tillman, Wei-Yen Chen, et al. The issue in recent years has been throwing pitchers who didn't belong in the big leagues out there against AL East lineups. I don't think Dean Kremer showed up on Opening Day this year, took a look at the new wall, and went "oh, I should try throwing more strikes...maybe that will work"

It’s always about the talent but clearly they were hoping for run prevention at home. 
 

If they thought it wasn’t a benefit they don’t move it. 

[Just Regular]

One of the things I've heard about EV and maxEV type stats that try to measure impact, and I don't know if Savant has it handy, is that something like 90th percentile measures are "better" than 100th for predictive models.    I gather it tries to eliminate outliers when once in a blue moon Austin Hays or Gary Sanchez hits a ball 470 feet, except that it only happens twice a season, not twice a week.   

I haven't heard it fully explained (and not sure percentile even quite the right word), but today Savant for example has Hays with 355 Batted Balls and maxEV of 109.0, and think the gist of it is for forecasting looking at his 35th or 36th fastest batted ball is a better proxy for how powerful a ball impactor he is.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Just Regular

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

25 minutes ago, rm5678 said:

Yes, I remember Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres hitting many home runs to left field that would no longer go out of the ballpark.

Meanwhile when Judge gazes at the new left field wall:

[byrdz]

Elias has clearly stated that the wall move was to attract free agency pitching. Now that they have the evidence that the wall change has helped the Orioles pitchers let's see what they do in the offseason.

 

[deward]

Just now, byrdz said:

Elias has clearly stated that the wall move was to attract free agency pitching. Now that they have the evidence that the wall change has helped the Orioles pitchers let's see what they do in the offseason.

 

Paying market rates will attract free agent pitching. There was never going to be a discount for the wall. If Elias truly believes that, then I think he is mistaken.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, deward said:

Paying market rates will attract free agent pitching. There was never going to be a discount for the wall. If Elias truly believes that, then I think he is mistaken.

Just get them to talk to Jordan Lyles and his 2.94 home ERA with just four homers allowed in 70 innings.  If this had been last year's OPACY he'd have a 8.97 ERA at home with a homer every four batters.

Dan Straily is going to be therapy for years after giving up 22 homers in 47 innings in 2019, including 18 in 33 innings at OPACY.  I could just see a free agent pitcher going to Straily and he's shaking and sweating, grabs the guy by the lapels "Don't do it!!! Don't ever go there!  Run away!!!!! It's evil!  Evil I tell you!!!"

Now Lyles is like "Dude, I threw Judge a 86 mph change up, belt high, didn't even get to the track. Is this heaven?  No, it's Oriole Park."

[Jagwar]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Only 44 Right handed pulled homers this year?  That doesn’t seem right.

Different pitching staff might add something to the result too. 

Is there any way to know how many balls hit to LF (outs and hits) this year would have been HRs last year?

[deward]

11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Just get them to talk to Jordan Lyles and his 2.94 home ERA with just four homers allowed in 70 innings.  If this had been last year's OPACY he'd have a 8.97 ERA at home with a homer every four batters.

Dan Straily is going to be therapy for years after giving up 22 homers in 47 innings in 2019, including 18 in 33 innings at OPACY.  I could just see a free agent pitcher going to Straily and he's shaking and sweating, grabs the guy by the lapels "Don't do it!!! Don't ever go there!  Run away!!!!! It's evil!  Evil I tell you!!!"

Now Lyles is like "Dude, I threw Judge a 86 mph change up, belt high, didn't even get to the track. Is this heaven?  No, it's Oriole Park."

"Wow, that sounds awesome! So you turned down someone else's better offer to go there, right?"

"What? No, of course not."

[byrdz]

30 minutes ago, deward said:

Paying market rates will attract free agent pitching. There was never going to be a discount for the wall. If Elias truly believes that, then I think he is mistaken.

I didn't hear him say anything about a discount. Hope he's not thinking that's the case.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, deward said:

"Wow, that sounds awesome! So you turned down someone else's better offer to go there, right?"

"What? No, of course not."

"So the Reds offered you 3 years at $14M per, but the O's offered 3 at $13.5 and you were like hell yea, I'm going to the place where you can't bunt a ball over the LC wall."

[OriolesMagic83]

5 minutes ago, byrdz said:

I didn't hear him say anything about a discount. Hope he's not thinking that's the case.

Might be a discount for pitchers that are looking for a 1 year deal to perform really well and sign a long term deal based on that year.  Obvious that would only be a minor consideration.

[survivedc]

The other component of the wall of course is Oriole outfielders getting used to playing it. Has to count for something over the course of a season.