Are these Walltimore homer numbers correct?

[deward]

33 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

"So the Reds offered you 3 years at $14M per, but the O's offered 3 at $13.5 and you were like hell yea, I'm going to the place where you can't bunt a ball over the LC wall."

"Are the O's still a laughingstock?"

"No"

"Is Angelos still making a big fuss over everyone's physicals in public?"

"No"

"Are the Reds really bad?"

"Yes"

"Ok, Baltimore works"

[deward]

We'll see, maybe I'll be surprised. I just think it's funny that a team that hasn't made a serious effort to sign a star pitcher in 30 years is suddenly saying, "hey, NOW free agent pitchers will come here!" It certainly isn't like Elias has been throwing offers out left and right and getting them turned down. That would have required spending money in the first place.

[SteveA]

9 hours ago, LA2 said:

Yes, astonishing actually: a 29% decrease in pulled homers by Oriole RHBs vs. a 72% decrease in the opponents'! 

Let's not forget that our team has become more left-handed this year with Adley, Odor joining the lineup.  I bet we have fewer total ABs by RH hitters this year than last.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, SteveA said:

Let's not forget that our team has become more left-handed this year with Adley, Odor joining the lineup.  I bet we have fewer total ABs by RH hitters this year than last.

Last year 70.2% of our at bats were by RHB.   This year it’s 64.1%.   

Last year we faced RHP 65.4% of the time.  This year it’s 71.4%.   

So, are we having a higher percentage of plate appearances as LHB because of changes in our personnel, or changes in the personnel we are facing?

 

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, deward said:

"Are the O's still a laughingstock?"

"No"

"Is Angelos still making a big fuss over everyone's physicals in public?"

"No"

"Are the Reds really bad?"

"Yes"

"Ok, Baltimore works"

"In the end what you're saying is your numbers don't matter to you at all if you get good money and the team is okay?  At all. 

Sure.  I could have a 6.50 ERA just so long as we win.

So if you had the choice between two fairly equal situations but one is a pitcher's park, the other a bandbox, you'd flip a coin.

Uhh, yea.

You're lying.

Yep."

Edited September 7, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[deward]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

"In the end what you're saying is your numbers don't matter to you at all if you get good money and the team is okay?  At all. 

Sure.  I could have a 6.50 ERA just so long as we win.

So if you had the choice between two fairly equal situations but one is a pitcher's park, the other a bandbox, you'd flip a coin.

Uhh, yea.

You're lying.

Yep."

"What I'm saying is that when I make my decisions, I'll consider the contract, the current quality of the franchise, the geographic location, my family's preference, the quality of the school system, and the local tax situation. If all of those somehow turn out to be exactly equal, maybe then I'll consider how much I care about whether my home ERA is going to be a half run higher."

I'm sure pitchers will enjoy pitching in a park where you barely have to worry about a LHH hitting an opposite field HR, and I'm sure whoever signs here will politely say nice things about the stadium. I just think the park will be well down the list of determining factors when someone is making a multi-year, multi-million dollar decision for themselves and their family (as it should be). People think it's going to serve as this key tie-breaker in otherwise equal situations, but I think the odds of all the other factors being so equal that it comes down the park are pretty low. But, we'll see, maybe someone will surprise me. 

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, deward said:

"What I'm saying is that when I make my decisions, I'll consider the contract, the current quality of the franchise, the geographic location, my family's preference, the quality of the school system, and the local tax situation. If all of those somehow turn out to be exactly equal, maybe then I'll consider how much I care about whether my home ERA is going to be a half run higher."

I'm sure pitchers will enjoy pitching in a park where you barely have to worry about a LHH hitting an opposite field HR, and I'm sure whoever signs here will politely say nice things about the stadium. I just think the park will be well down the list of determining factors when someone is making a multi-year, multi-million dollar decision for themselves and their family (as it should be). People think it's going to serve as this key tie-breaker in otherwise equal situations, but I think the odds of all the other factors being so equal that it comes down the park are pretty low. But, we'll see, maybe someone will surprise me. 

In other words, you find the wall to be aesthetically unappealing.

[Sports Guy]

Btw, how is it possible we have gone through the season and no OFer has run into the wall and gotten seriously hurt?

I thought injuries were going to happen all over the place?

[deward]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In other words, you find the wall to be aesthetically unappealing.

I think it's ugly as sin. And you think the only problem with it is they didn't move the rest of the wall back. What does that have to do with this topic?

[deward]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, how is it possible we have gone through the season and no OFer has run into the wall and gotten seriously hurt?

I thought injuries were going to happen all over the place?

There really haven't been many balls hit into that corner where the bullpen wall juts out. People were expecting that corner to lead to a big uptick in triples too (not unreasonably), but that hasn't panned out yet either. Seeing it in action, I doubt any LF could cover enough ground to get to that corner while a ball is in the air, so the scenario of a guy hitting the corner at full speed because he was looking up seems pretty far-fetched.

[DrungoHazewood]

36 minutes ago, deward said:

I think it's ugly as sin. And you think the only problem with it is they didn't move the rest of the wall back. What does that have to do with this topic?

People tend to stake out positions then find rationalizations to back that up.  You don't like how the wall looks compared to how it used to look, so it would be unsurprising to use that as a jumping off point for other arguments about the wall not being necessary or having the impact others say it does.

Maybe that's unfair.

26 minutes ago, deward said:

There really haven't been many balls hit into that corner where the bullpen wall juts out. People were expecting that corner to lead to a big uptick in triples too (not unreasonably), but that hasn't panned out yet either. Seeing it in action, I doubt any LF could cover enough ground to get to that corner while a ball is in the air, so the scenario of a guy hitting the corner at full speed because he was looking up seems pretty far-fetched.

I think I projected that the wall would lead to just a few additional triples. In modern baseball triples are rare, and triples to left even more rare.  Last year there were 18 triples hit at OPACY in 6186 PAs, or 344 PA/Triple.  This year so far it's 15 in 5083, or 339 PA/Triple.  Tiny sample, rare event, so I wouldn't draw any sweeping conclusions.  But so far essentially no change in triple frequency.

[DrungoHazewood]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, how is it possible we have gone through the season and no OFer has run into the wall and gotten seriously hurt?

I thought injuries were going to happen all over the place?

People tend to overestimate the impact of outfield walls.  When OPACY was built it was commonly said that the RF wall was going to be kind of like the Green Monster, than balls would be flying off it all the time.  How often does a ball hit that wall?  Once every few games?  It seems to me that it's pretty uncommon for a ball to hit halfway up the wall, and the RF really has to be adept at playing the carom.  It was also said that the garage door area in right would lead to all kinds of triples as the ball gets caught up and bounces around there.  There probably aren't five triples a year that do that.

How many balls per game hit an outfield wall on the fly?  Or even a hard bounce? Two or three? Most of those hit on some unremarkable flat area. 

Or think about it this way, there's an extra-base hit once every 13 PAs. So the wall has no impact whatsoever in over 90% of plate appearances, and in much of that <10% that's left the ball either flies over it or bounces off some unremarkable area.

[deward]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

People tend to stake out positions then find rationalizations to back that up.  You don't like how the wall looks compared to how it used to look, so it would be unsurprising to use that as a jumping off point for other arguments about the wall not being necessary or having the impact others say it does.

Maybe that's unfair.

I don't enjoy looking at the wall and I don't enjoy how it plays. It's a personal bias, I fully admit, and I'm sure it causes me to be unwilling to give it any benefit of the doubt as to its impact on the fortunes of the team. You've been very clear that you think the wall is great for the game and you wish more teams would do the same, so you also have an obvious bias in favor of it. That being said, I assume we're both arguing in good faith, rather than just rationalizing. I don't think my positions are illogical.  Probably no reason to keep butting heads on it, we're just going to have to see how things play out.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

People tend to overestimate the impact of outfield walls.  When OPACY was built it was commonly said that the RF wall was going to be kind of like the Green Monster, than balls would be flying off it all the time.  How often does a ball hit that wall?  Once every few games?  It seems to me that it's pretty uncommon for a ball to hit halfway up the wall, and the RF really has to be adept at playing the carom.  It was also said that the garage door area in right would lead to all kinds of triples as the ball gets caught up and bounces around there.  There probably aren't five triples a year that do that.

How many balls per game hit an outfield wall on the fly?  Or even a hard bounce? Two or three? Most of those hit on some unremarkable flat area. 

I remember the hype when OPACY first opened about how many baseballs would bounce off the right field wall and who would be the first slugger to hit a home run off the warehouse. 

The field being below ground level makes hitting the warehouse during game action all but impossible. And I suck a geometry, but I also believes it's a factor on why we don't see that many baseballs bounce off the scoreboard for extra bas hits. 

[jabba72]

11 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I remember the hype when OPACY first opened about how many baseballs would bounce off the right field wall and who would be the first slugger to hit a home run off the warehouse. 

The field being below ground level makes hitting the warehouse during game action all but impossible. And I suck a geometry, but I also believes it's a factor on why we don't see that many baseballs bounce off the scoreboard for extra bas hits. 

But isnt the scoreboard also below ground level? I dont understand why it would be harder because its below ground level. It doesn't seem to impact balls clearing the RF wall.