Voth/Harvey

[Frobby]

Had to enjoy the fact that ex-Oriole Hunter Harvey got the loss yesterday, and ex-National Austin Voth got the win today.   

[dystopia]

Nationals have got to be concerned looking at how Voth completely turned it around after leaving. They need a house cleaning. 

[CharmCityHokie]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Had to enjoy the fact that ex-Oriole Hunter Harvey got the loss yesterday, and ex-National Austin Voth got the win today.   

Baseball is such a weird game. I was thinking about if I would trade Voth for Harvey straight up after the season, as a hypothetical. They are on the same Arb/FA schedule (though Voth is 2 1/2 years older with 5-times the MLB innings) and their career bWARs are basically the same for the sake of this hypothetical. So do you believe Harvey has found the answer to his health issues or just dodged a bullet for most of this year...or that Voth has found something new and is a successful bulk pitcher or is he just getting lucky in a small sample and will turn back into a pumpkin. 

Late disclaimer...I may be the only person in the world that finds this hypothetical interesting and I extend my advance apologies for typing it out to those who are giving it even a momentary pause of consideration. 

[LA2]

7 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

Baseball is such a weird game. I was thinking about if I would trade Voth for Harvey straight up after the season, as a hypothetical. They are on the same Arb/FA schedule (though Voth is 2 1/2 years older with 5-times the MLB innings) and their career bWARs are basically the same for the sake of this hypothetical. So do you believe Harvey has found the answer to his health issues or just dodged a bullet for most of this year...or that Voth has found something new and is a successful bulk pitcher or is he just getting lucky in a small sample and will turn back into a pumpkin. 

Late disclaimer...I may be the only person in the world that finds this hypothetical interesting and I extend my advance apologies for typing it out to those who are giving it even a momentary pause of consideration. 

Nothing to apologize for! A very legit speculation.

[Ohfan67]

8 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

Baseball is such a weird game. I was thinking about if I would trade Voth for Harvey straight up after the season, as a hypothetical. They are on the same Arb/FA schedule (though Voth is 2 1/2 years older with 5-times the MLB innings) and their career bWARs are basically the same for the sake of this hypothetical. So do you believe Harvey has found the answer to his health issues or just dodged a bullet for most of this year...or that Voth has found something new and is a successful bulk pitcher or is he just getting lucky in a small sample and will turn back into a pumpkin. 

Harvey missed all of May and June with an injury. 

[Moose Milligan]

9 hours ago, dystopia said:

Nationals have got to be concerned looking at how Voth completely turned it around after leaving. They need a house cleaning. 

Pretty sure it was posted on here a few weeks ago that Voth was impressed with the Orioles analytics department and figuring out the best method of attack for his pitching.  IIRC, he said that the Nationals didn't have anything like it.  

This goes back to my overriding thought about how many of these guys just need a change of scenery, need the right coach, need the right analytics department in order to go from a fringey Major Leaguer to a good (or even great) one.  These guys aren't that far apart from each other in terms of reflexes, hand eye coordination, etc.  What it really boils down to at this level IMO, is the fine tuning.  Look at a guy like McKenna, it's not hard to picture that guy being a good every day player if he lands in a situation where the right coach or analytics department can help him become better than he is.  

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

Baseball is such a weird game. I was thinking about if I would trade Voth for Harvey straight up after the season, as a hypothetical. They are on the same Arb/FA schedule (though Voth is 2 1/2 years older with 5-times the MLB innings) and their career bWARs are basically the same for the sake of this hypothetical. So do you believe Harvey has found the answer to his health issues or just dodged a bullet for most of this year...or that Voth has found something new and is a successful bulk pitcher or is he just getting lucky in a small sample and will turn back into a pumpkin. 

Late disclaimer...I may be the only person in the world that finds this hypothetical interesting and I extend my advance apologies for typing it out to those who are giving it even a momentary pause of consideration. 

Harvey is not worth the injury aggravation. Voth is at very least a solid long reliever/#5 SP. Harvey is and will always be headed to his next DL stint,

[DrungoHazewood]

24 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Pretty sure it was posted on here a few weeks ago that Voth was impressed with the Orioles analytics department and figuring out the best method of attack for his pitching.  IIRC, he said that the Nationals didn't have anything like it.  

This goes back to my overriding thought about how many of these guys just need a change of scenery, need the right coach, need the right analytics department in order to go from a fringey Major Leaguer to a good (or even great) one.  These guys aren't that far apart from each other in terms of reflexes, hand eye coordination, etc.  What it really boils down to at this level IMO, is the fine tuning.  Look at a guy like McKenna, it's not hard to picture that guy being a good every day player if he lands in a situation where the right coach or analytics department can help him become better than he is.  

Imagine typing that post in 1988.  The first question would be "what the heck is an analytics department?" Wonder how many players could have been solid MLBers but nobody had the data or the tools to figure out what they needed? Or on the other hand, how many stars wouldn't been much if analytics had been there and figured out a strategy to attack their weaknesses that they had no way to counter?

If you could take Elias' guys and data to 1989 the O's would win 120.

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Imagine typing that post in 1988.  The first question would be "what the heck is an analytics department?" Wonder how many players could have been solid MLBers but nobody had the data or the tools to figure out what they needed? Or on the other hand, how many stars wouldn't been much if analytics had been there and figured out a strategy to attack their weaknesses that they had no way to counter?

If you could take Elias' guys and data to 1989 the O's would win 120.

Well there'd be nowhere to post it in 1988 for starters.  But yeah, totally.  

Not only would the '89 team win 120, they'd probably never pull the trigger on Glenn Davis.  Matter of fact, I bet the Astros would have been laughed out of the room.  Randy Milligan (.900 OPS In 1990) would be rightfully entrenched at first base for the next 7-10 years.  Mickey Tettleton stays and I bet the 1990s would be a lot different for the Orioles, even if and only if BB rate was the only thing they would have been looking at, a proto-Beane take on undervalued assets.

[interloper]

A perfect example of why Harvey was DFAd. A whatever player like Voth was a far more useful pitcher for much longer in the season than a hyped up but mostly unavailable 1 inning guy like Harvey. 

Edited September 15, 2022 by interloper

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

Baseball is such a weird game. I was thinking about if I would trade Voth for Harvey straight up after the season, as a hypothetical. They are on the same Arb/FA schedule (though Voth is 2 1/2 years older with 5-times the MLB innings) and their career bWARs are basically the same for the sake of this hypothetical. So do you believe Harvey has found the answer to his health issues or just dodged a bullet for most of this year...or that Voth has found something new and is a successful bulk pitcher or is he just getting lucky in a small sample and will turn back into a pumpkin. 

Late disclaimer...I may be the only person in the world that finds this hypothetical interesting and I extend my advance apologies for typing it out to those who are giving it even a momentary pause of consideration. 

Honestly, I was thinking about that when I saw Harvey pitching for the Nats against the O's the other night. We basically traded Harvey for Voth. I then thought, would I have made that trade knowing what Voth would have done for out rotation for a bit? Yes, yes I would have made that trade and the fact that Harvey missed a significant time once again, tells me you never can quite count on him despite the good arm.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well there'd be nowhere to post it in 1988 for starters.  But yeah, totally.  

Not only would the '89 team win 120, they'd probably never pull the trigger on Glenn Davis.  Matter of fact, I bet the Astros would have been laughed out of the room.  Randy Milligan (.900 OPS In 1990) would be rightfully entrenched at first base for the next 7-10 years.  Mickey Tettleton stays and I bet the 1990s would be a lot different for the Orioles, even if and only if BB rate was the only thing they would have been looking at, a proto-Beane take on undervalued assets.

I hate to break it to you, but Milligan was a free agent at 31, at the end of the 1992 season.  Elias would have traded him for some prospects in the 1991-92 offseason, because it makes little sense to sign a first baseman with that combination of age and production to an extension, even if he walks 100 times a year.

Agreed that the Davis deal seems very un-Elias. Although would even he have anticipated Steve Finley going from an .070 ISO at 25 to 304 career homers? I guess if our time machine includes the knowledge that they'd juice the ball and the players and build like 19 homer-friendly parks from 1990-2005.

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Honestly, I was thinking about that when I saw Harvey pitching for the Nats against the O's the other night. We basically traded Harvey for Voth. I then thought, would I have made that trade knowing what Voth would have done for out rotation for a bit? Yes, yes I would have made that trade and the fact that Harvey missed a significant time once again, tells me you never can quite count on him despite the good arm.

Harvey might be the new Rudy Seanez.  Almost 20 years in the majors, but 566 innings, or about 33 a season.  Although I don't know if Harvey ever manages to stay healthy for an entire season; Seanez did a few times in his 30s.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Pretty sure it was posted on here a few weeks ago that Voth was impressed with the Orioles analytics department and figuring out the best method of attack for his pitching.  IIRC, he said that the Nationals didn't have anything like it.  

This goes back to my overriding thought about how many of these guys just need a change of scenery, need the right coach, need the right analytics department in order to go from a fringey Major Leaguer to a good (or even great) one.  These guys aren't that far apart from each other in terms of reflexes, hand eye coordination, etc.  What it really boils down to at this level IMO, is the fine tuning.  Look at a guy like McKenna, it's not hard to picture that guy being a good every day player if he lands in a situation where the right coach or analytics department can help him become better than he is.  

No coaching or analytics department can fix his slow bat. Last night's awful at bat with the bases loaded showed his limitations as a hitter. He ends up getting sawed off on an inner third 93 MPH fastball that he knew was coming because he really just can't get to it effectively.

Now, the rest of your point is spot on. The Orioles have shown the ability to get better performance out of guys, particularly pitchers due to their coaching and analytics department. Besides Voth, Perez, Baker, Krehbiel and even Watkins were all taken of the scrap heap and become valuable pitchers this year for the Orioles. 

I give the Elias/Sig, Holt and the analytics department for being able to make pitchers better if they can command their stuff.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I hate to break it to you, but Milligan was a free agent at 31, at the end of the 1992 season.  Elias would have traded him for some prospects in the 1991-92 offseason, because it makes little sense to sign a first baseman with that combination of age and production to an extension, even if he walks 100 times a year.

Agreed that the Davis deal seems very un-Elias. Although would even he have anticipated Steve Finley going from an .070 ISO at 25 to 304 career homers? I guess if our time machine includes the knowledge that they'd juice the ball and the players and build like 19 homer-friendly parks from 1990-2005.

Nah, if Elias hops out of the DeLorean in '89 and sees that the 27 year old Milligan has struck out 68 times and walked 88 times, he promptly signs him to an extension that takes him through his 33-34 seasons.  Even at an "old 32" in 94 with the Expos his on base percentage was over .100 points higher than his batting average.  Throw in some conditioning and whatever other secret sauce Elias brings with him, I think Milligan is still a wildly productive player into his early to mid 30s.  

Safe bet about the Davis deal and not knowing that Finley would become the player he became, but I was thinking it'd be un-Elias due to giving up Schilling and Harnisch.  I flip flop on who the most surprising player from that deal was between Schilling and Finley.  You could make a good case for both of them depending on the day but I'm assuming Finley had some "help."