"If he could hit, we couldn't afford him."

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The fact that the O's have other SS that can take over if Mateo does poorly could allow the O's to begin the year with him at SS.  Then if they have to move Gunnar or Ortiz to SS during the season they can do that.

Sure, they could do that and my guess is that they will because I would be surprised if he has much trade value.

[DrungoHazewood]

Isn't it weird that the Padres had Mateo for a little over a calendar year and they played him at shortstop for one inning? Literally one inning. Yes, they have Tatis, but Tatis is hurt or suspended or something quite a lot. He missed 32 games last year.  They had the guy who may well win the 2022 AL Gold Glove at short and they were playing him in the outfield and third base.

Also, in 2019 he spent the whole year with the A's AAA affiliate in Las Vegas and had an .834 OPS with 29 doubles, 14 triples, 19 homers, 24 steals. And never got called up at all.  Yes, Vegas in the PCL is a great place to hit and Marcus Semien was putting up MVP-ish numbers.  But still. Not even a call up.

Just interesting that two different teams had one of the best fielding shortstops in the world and said "yea... no, we're not putting you there at all."

[Chelsea_Phil]

That’s criminal 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Chelsea_Phil

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Isn't it weird that the Padres had Mateo for a little over a calendar year and they played him at shortstop for one inning? Literally one inning. Yes, they have Tatis, but Tatis is hurt or suspended or something quite a lot. He missed 32 games last year.  They had the guy who may well win the 2022 AL Gold Glove at short and they were playing him in the outfield and third base.

Also, in 2019 he spent the whole year with the A's AAA affiliate in Las Vegas and had an .834 OPS with 29 doubles, 14 triples, 19 homers, 24 steals. And never got called up at all.  Yes, Vegas in the PCL is a great place to hit and Marcus Semien was putting up MVP-ish numbers.  But still. Not even a call up.

Just interesting that two different teams had one of the best fielding shortstops in the world and said "yea... no, we're not putting you there at all."

It’s interesting, I didn’t see any scouting reports on Mateo that pegged him as a truly outstanding defender.   Mostly you see 50/55 FV grades on his glove, 60 on his arm.
Fangraphs 2014

Minor League Ball 2015

BP 2016

Prospects Live 2021

And, I wasn’t wowed when I saw him last year.   But he’s really shown outstanding ability and tools, and has played consistently well in the field.

A lot of the scouting reports actually liked his bat better than his glove.

 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s interesting, I didn’t see any scouting reports on Mateo that pegged him as a truly outstanding defender.   Mostly you see 50/55 FV grades on his glove, 60 on his arm.
Fangraphs 2014

Minor League Ball 2015

BP 2016

Prospects Live 2021

And, I wasn’t wowed when I saw him last year.   But he’s really shown outstanding ability and tools, and has played consistently well in the field.

A lot of the scouting reports actually liked his bat better than his glove.

 

And all of this is why I don’t think you can assume he will be an elite defender next year.

Sure, guys develop and they do it on different schedules and yes, the Orioles may just know how to develop defense better than other teams.

But still, when a player has a history of X, they tend to revert back to that.

As I said, I think it’s fair to think he gives you above average defense next year. I do think it’s wrong to ASSUME elite level defense.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And all of this is why I don’t think you can assume he will be an elite defender next year.

Sure, guys develop and they do it on different schedules and yes, the Orioles may just know how to develop defense better than other teams.

But still, when a player has a history of X, they tend to revert back to that.

As I said, I think it’s fair to think he gives you above average defense next year. I do think it’s wrong to ASSUME elite level defense.

There should not be a defensive drop off between ages 27 and 28.   Now he could be hurt.  His offense is the question mark for next year IMO.  Not his defense.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And all of this is why I don’t think you can assume he will be an elite defender next year.

Sure, guys develop and they do it on different schedules and yes, the Orioles may just know how to develop defense better than other teams.

But still, when a player has a history of X, they tend to revert back to that.

As I said, I think it’s fair to think he gives you above average defense next year. I do think it’s wrong to ASSUME elite level defense.

Well, I don’t think his range, arm or ability to time plays are going to change materially from this year to next.  In other words, I expect the fundamentals of his defense to be about the same.  What I think can change from this year to next year are:

1.  Mistakes.   He could make more, he could make less.   
2.  Random fluctuations in how defensive plays get measured.  They try to make these stats as objective as they can, but it seems there are always some borderline plays that can be judged one way or another.   In other words, I think if Mateo made the exact same plays in 2023 as in 2022, his metrics wouldn’t necessarily be exactly the same.   Among other things, I think some of these stats are measured relative to the other players in the league, so if one player’s performance is the same as the year before, whereas the performance of other players at that position is a little up or down, it will affect that player’s OAA, DRS, etc.  Also I think the surrounding players make a difference.  If you have a 3B with great range, maybe the SS gets fewer chances than if the 3B has poor range.   If the 2B is poor at turning the DP, maybe the shortstop’s conversion rate on DP’s goes down through no fault of his own.   

So in short, I expect Mateo’s defensive skills and performance to be about the same next year as this year.   That doesn’t mean that the defensive stats will assess him the same way.  
 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

There should not be a defensive drop off between ages 27 and 28.   Now he could be hurt.  His offense is the question mark for next year IMO.  Not his defense.

Well, I guarantee you that there is a long list of players in MLB history that have seen a drop off in defense between those ages.

And how are defining a drop off? The difference between elite to very good is big but not always discernible to the eye.  But that drop off is enough to where he just isn’t all that valuable.

Elite is where he must be to provide value. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I don’t think his range, arm or ability to time plays are going to change materially from this year to next.  In other words, I expect the fundamentals of his defense to be about the same.  What I think can change from this year to next year are:

1.  Mistakes.   He could make more, he could make less.   
2.  Random fluctuations in how defensive plays get measured.  They try to make these stats as objective as they can, but it seems there are always some borderline plays that can be judged one way or another.   In other words, I think if Mateo made the exact same plays in 2023 as in 2022, his metrics wouldn’t necessarily be exactly the same.   Among other things, I think some of these stats are measured relative to the other players in the league, so if one player’s performance is the same as the year before, whereas the performance of other players at that position is a little up or down, it will affect that player’s OAA, DRS, etc.  Also I think the surrounding players make a difference.  If you have a 3B with great range, maybe the SS gets fewer chances than if the 3B has poor range.   If the 2B is poor at turning the DP, maybe the shortstop’s conversion rate on DP’s goes down through no fault of his own.   

So in short, I expect Mateo’s defensive skills and performance to be about the same next year as this year.   That doesn’t mean that the defensive stats will assess him the same way.  
 

Well, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a subtle drop off in range but overall, I agree with you.

 

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I don’t think his range, arm or ability to time plays are going to change materially from this year to next.  In other words, I expect the fundamentals of his defense to be about the same.  What I think can change from this year to next year are:

1.  Mistakes.   He could make more, he could make less.   
2.  Random fluctuations in how defensive plays get measured.  They try to make these stats as objective as they can, but it seems there are always some borderline plays that can be judged one way or another.   In other words, I think if Mateo made the exact same plays in 2023 as in 2022, his metrics wouldn’t necessarily be exactly the same.   Among other things, I think some of these stats are measured relative to the other players in the league, so if one player’s performance is the same as the year before, whereas the performance of other players at that position is a little up or down, it will affect that player’s OAA, DRS, etc.  Also I think the surrounding players make a difference.  If you have a 3B with great range, maybe the SS gets fewer chances than if the 3B has poor range.   If the 2B is poor at turning the DP, maybe the shortstop’s conversion rate on DP’s goes down through no fault of his own.   

So in short, I expect Mateo’s defensive skills and performance to be about the same next year as this year.   That doesn’t mean that the defensive stats will assess him the same way.  
 

The lack of the shift should make his range more valuable.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a subtle drop off in range but overall, I agree with you.

 

Yes, a subtle drop in range is possible.  

Another thing to consider is health, by which I mean the kind of injuries that impair a player but don’t prevent him from playing.  Mateo seemed to avoid any significant injuries this year.  I remember that JJ Hardy played hurt a lot in 2015, and his defensive numbers suffered considerably.   Then in 2016 he was pretty healthy and his numbers returned pretty close to his old levels.  Then in 2017 you could plainly see that age had caught up to him and he simply didn’t have the same ability to make plays that he used to have.  Of course, by then he was 34.  If Mateo has minor injuries in 2023 that obviously could affect his performance defensively.  But that’s true of any player.  
 

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The lack of the shift should make his range more valuable.

IMO, this is the likely outcome.  And a primary driver in why he'll be the OD starting shortstop.

I think the Orioles will try to find undervalued assets that will have their value increased by the lack of shift.  Think rangy middle infielders, and left handed hitters hurt the most by the shift.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The lack of the shift should make his range more valuable.

I think this remains to be seen.   In any event I think the effect will be small.  

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think this remains to be seen.   In any event I think the effect will be small.  

I expect the lack of a shift to help left-handed hitters.  But  the SS can still be just to the left of 2nd base.  The difference will be the 2nd baseman has to start on the dirt.

[Ceciltrav]

This is a huge winter for Mateo.  he should have confidence enough to put in the work to get better for next year.  The Orioles gave him a chance.  He took it.   Now put in the work Mr. Mateo.