If he's non-tendered, do the O's take a flyer on Cody Bellinger?

[ShoelesJoe]

I’d chase him for a cheap Nelson Cruz-ish kind of deal. Unfortunately some other team will probably take a chance and pay him more than we will. 

[SouthRider]

Hard pass.  This team is supposed to be contending next season.  No room for flyers.  

[Just Regular]

Even with the RHP Musgrove starting tonight, Bellinger out of the starting lineup a second straight game in favor of Klay Thompson's brother.

 

[Jim'sKid26]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Even with the RHP Musgrove starting tonight, Bellinger out of the starting lineup a second straight game in favor of Klay Thompson's brother.

 

This speaks volumes. He might be done. His fall from grace is one of the most precipitous in recent memory.

[Orioles0615]

On 10/14/2022 at 12:57 PM, Frobby said:

What the heck happened to this guy?  Stud at 23, washed up at 26?  Holy Rougned Odor!

I could see taking a shot at him if the O’s think they know what’s wrong with him and think they can fix it.   I wouldn’t just want them to take a random shot if they have no idea what the problem is.   

I mean Bellinger won an MVP I think there is something in there someplace. 

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, Orioles0615 said:

I mean Bellinger won an MVP I think there is something in there someplace. 

Not if the ramifications of his injury and surgery wrecked him.

[BRobinsonfan]

Hard pass as well... it's incredible how quickly his career went into a tailspin... but there's no indication in the numbers that he will be able to change that trajectory.   He's a better fielding Chris Davis at this point and we don't need that.   

[OriolesMagic83]

A Dodger fan on MLBtraderumors actually suggested the Dodgers should pay him $18 million in 2023 with a $25 million option.  He didn't want to be embarassed if Bellinger bounced back.  It's good to be a fan of a team that can waste money.  I'm predicting the Dodgers nontender him and offer him a much lower salary, maybe $5 million.  At this point, he's just a 4th OF, imo.

[sportsfan8703]

I’m sure a lot of players will be magically “fixed” with the shift being banned. 

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m sure a lot of players will be magically “fixed” with the shift being banned. 

There is actually very little data to support this position.

“Nothing really changed,” Kevin Randel, manager of the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate at Pensacola, said last fall. “I didn’t see any advantages or disadvantages to it at all. In the end it all kind of evened out … You steal some outs and you give up some cheap hits. I think it was pretty much all the same.”

One consideration to take into account is that shifts are less common in the minors than they are in the majors, so banning the shift could have a greater effect in the majors than it did in the minors.

Still, it is notable that the other rules changes MLB implemented—namely the pitch clock and larger bases—made measurable differences during testing in the minor leagues. Banning the shift, so far, has not.

Banning Shifts Had Almost No Effect On Batted Ball Outcomes in the Minors (baseballamerica.com)

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

There is actually very little data to support this position.

“Nothing really changed,” Kevin Randel, manager of the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate at Pensacola, said last fall. “I didn’t see any advantages or disadvantages to it at all. In the end it all kind of evened out … You steal some outs and you give up some cheap hits. I think it was pretty much all the same.”

One consideration to take into account is that shifts are less common in the minors than they are in the majors, so banning the shift could have a greater effect in the majors than it did in the minors.

Still, it is notable that the other rules changes MLB implemented—namely the pitch clock and larger bases—made measurable differences during testing in the minor leagues. Banning the shift, so far, has not.

Banning Shifts Had Almost No Effect On Batted Ball Outcomes in the Minors (baseballamerica.com)

I think the effects of banning the shift at the major league level will be more significant than in the minors.   Major league teams do it more often, and they have more data to tell them when and how to do it.   They don’t employ shifts as often as they do because their data tells them it has no real impact, nor do I think MLB is banning shifts without believing it will be pretty impactful.   

Whether any of that helps Bellinger is another story.  I don’t think shifts are his big problem.  
 

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think the effects of banning the shift at the major league level will be more significant than in the minors.   Major league teams do it more often, and they have more data to tell them when and how to do it.   They don’t employ shifts as often as they do because their data tells them it has no real impact, nor do I think MLB is banning shifts without believing it will be pretty impactful.   

Whether any of that helps Bellinger is another story.  I don’t think shifts are his big problem.  
 

I am fascinated to see if this is true. I don't think it will have much effect. Only time will tell. However, I think you might be giving MLB leadership a bit too much credit (in the bolded part). 

[yark14]

I don't see any harm in taking a flyer on Bellinger if he is cheap and doesn't get in the way of us making big deals on better players.  Give him some ABs in spring training and cut him if he doesn't show any indication of  being "fixed".

[Frobby]

47 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I am fascinated to see if this is true. I don't think it will have much effect. Only time will tell. However, I think you might be giving MLB leadership a bit too much credit (in the bolded part). 

Let’s define what we mean by “much effect.”    Let’s say batting averages rise by .005.   Is that a lot, or a little?   How about if it’s .010?  Of course, whatever the difference is between this year’s average BA and next year’s, we’re not going to know how much of that related to the change in the shift rule, since BA changes every year for a whole variety of reasons.   

[Jim'sKid26]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s define what we mean by “much effect.”    Let’s say batting averages rise by .005.   Is that a lot, or a little?   How about if it’s .010?  Of course, whatever the difference is between this year’s average BA and next year’s, we’re not going to know how much of that related to the change in the shift rule, since BA changes every year for a whole variety of reasons.   

Beyond the obvious issue of the effect not really being measurable in it's purest sense. I personally think the shift ban is mostly propaganda and fits in the "don't just stand there....do something," category.