Who are your picks for a 2023 breakout?

[Frobby]

I’m interested in early thoughts on who might be a 2023 breakout candidate.  Here’s my definition of “breakout”:  (1) someone not currently in the top 30 who by this time next year will be a candidate for top 20, or (2) somebody in the top 30 who leapfrogs at least five players currently ranked ahead of him. 

It’s a little hard to do this exercise without knowing where the 2022 draft guys like Beavers and Fabian are ranked, but whatever.   

I will start this off by proposing 2021 fifth round pick Carlos Tavera.   Tavera had an injury-shortened 2022 in which he posted a 4.40 ERA in 57.1 IP, 1.34 WHIP, 12.7 K/9, 5.3 BB/9.   He was often spectacular, but also had several craptastic outings.  Even before he was hurt, the O’s didn’t push his innings much.  He only went 5+ in four of sixteen outings, and threw 3 or less eight times. 

I’m not really sure what Tavera’s injury was that ended his season on July 31, but I didn’t hear any reports of anything that would carry over into 2023.   I think if he can just cut the walks by a bit, his stuff is dominant enough for him to be a breakout guy in 2023, if healthy.  


 

[RZNJ]

I'm going with Anderson Delosantos.  3B  on the FCL Orioles.   He put up good numbers at 17 in the DSL.   His numbers last year in the FCL were not great but he had 23 walks against 23 strikeouts and showed decent pop.   His defensive numbers look pretty good at 3B.   I suspect he's going to be the starting 3B at Delmarva next year.   Possible breakout although he was talked about after his 17 year old season in the DSL.

For pitcher I'm taking a complete shot on Isaac Solano who is listed at 6'6 195 and put up a 6.90 ERA in the FCL.  He turns 21 tomorrow.   He had one outing where he went 3 IP, 0 hits, 0 walks, and 6 strikeouts.   I have no idea what kind of stuff he has.

[CharmCityHokie]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m interested in early thoughts on who might be a 2023 breakout candidate.  Here’s my definition of “breakout”:  (1) someone not currently in the top 30 who by this time next year will be a candidate for top 20, or (2) somebody in the top 30 who leapfrogs at least five players currently ranked ahead of him. 

It’s a little hard to do this exercise without knowing where the 2022 draft guys like Beavers and Fabian are ranked, but whatever.   

I will start this off by proposing 2021 fifth round pick Carlos Tavera.   Tavera had an injury-shortened 2022 in which he posted a 4.40 ERA in 57.1 IP, 1.34 WHIP, 12.7 K/9, 5.3 BB/9.   He was often spectacular, but also had several craptastic outings.  Even before he was hurt, the O’s didn’t push his innings much.  He only went 5+ in four of sixteen outings, and threw 3 or less eight times. 

I’m not really sure what Tavera’s injury was that ended his season on July 31, but I didn’t hear any reports of anything that would carry over into 2023.   I think if he can just cut the walks by a bit, his stuff is dominant enough for him to be a breakout guy in 2023, if healthy.  


 

Speaking of mystery season-ending pitcher injuries, did they ever say what took out Brandon Young?

For my breakout, I think I'll go with Jean Pinto. He had a decent season, but I think now with two seasons of making double-digit starts under his belt he can really grow. Also, his slider can be downright nasty when he has it on.

If I were to pick someone already on the prospect list who could make a big jump, I think I'd go with John Rhodes. He seems incredibly athletic but also frequently injured. He kinda reminds me a bit of Austin Hays where he's almost going too hard all the time and it's getting him hurt. I think with a healthy season he could really jump up the list and surprise some people. Also I hope they introduce him over the loudspeaker as being from his hometown, "Now batting, hailing from Soddy Daisy, Tennessee...John Rhodesss"

And one more, this past season was already a bit of a breakout for Darrell Hernaiz, but I think with his age 21 season coming up, he might be able to put up serious numbers. I also think he may be one of the middle infielders that will be put up as a trade option.

Edited October 22, 2022 by CharmCityHokie

[Jim'sKid26]

The two I would like to see breakout are Kjerstad and Mayo. Could those two battle for the most HRs in MiLB? Would be very nice. 

I'd love to see Drew Rom take the next step. The same with Cade Povich.

My breakout choice, however, is Carter Baumler. He's back from TJ surgery. He'll have a full off season to train. His stuff is very good. And he's just a dude. 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

The two I would like to see breakout are Kjerstad and Mayo. Could those two battle for the most HRs in MiLB? Would be very nice. 

I'd love to see Drew Rom take the next step. The same with Cade Povich.

My breakout choice, however, is Carter Baumler. He's back from TJ surgery. He'll have a full off season to train. His stuff is very good. And he's just a dude. 

 

We never did hear details on why Baumler was shut down, but I think I heard shoulder soreness.  Worrisome.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

We never did hear details on why Baumler was shut down, but I think I heard shoulder soreness.  Worrisome.

At one point they expected him back in August so it didn't appear to be structural damage at the time.

[emmett16]

Carter Young.  I think we lucked into some talent that was undervalued because of injury.  I like his glove and bat in the short amount of time he played this year.  I think he could be a sleeper impact prospect.  

[Aristotelian]

What Top 30 list are we using?

[owknows]

Creed Willems

[RZNJ]

6 hours ago, owknows said:

Creed Willems

Good pick.   He struggled quite a bit but he starts next year at 19 and you can see some potential there.   It would be nice if he spends the off-season dedicating himself to getting into the best possible shape.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

What Top 30 list are we using?

Any one you want.  For now, Tony’s power rankings, while not really final, are about the most up to date rankings around.  I don’t know any site that’s done a year end update.   

[Aristotelian]

I'll go with Ignacio Feliz. Has some control issues but 13 K/9 is impressive.

[Fiver6565]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Good pick.   He struggled quite a bit but he starts next year at 19 and you can see some potential there.   It would be nice if he spends the off-season dedicating himself to getting into the best possible shape.

Either that or learning to hit like Alejandro Kirk. 

[ShoelesJoe]

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m interested in early thoughts on who might be a 2023 breakout candidate.  Here’s my definition of “breakout”:  (1) someone not currently in the top 30 who by this time next year will be a candidate for top 20, or (2) somebody in the top 30 who leapfrogs at least five players currently ranked ahead of him. 
 

I don't know if he fits the stated criteria, but my pick for a breakout is Seth Johnson. Grabbed by Tampa two picks ahead of Gunnar Henderson in the second round of the 2019 draft. Luke, our uber draft guru at the time, was really high on him. He put up a 2.81 ERA in 39 minor league games, 172 K's vs 47 walks in 137 innings.  Given Luke's enthusiasm and Tampa's history with drafting pitchers I have to think there's some serious talent there. Now, Johnson had TJS in August (which is why we were able to get him as part of the Mancini trade), so he probably won't be back to throwing till the middle of 2023. He'll be 24 years old, but if he comes back healthy I have to think Elias will have him on the fast track through our minors. 

Edited October 23, 2022 by ShoelesJoe

[waroriole]

I’m surprised nobody has said Reed Trimble. Number 65 pick in 2021 draft, missed most of this year, but recovered in time to get some ABs in Delmarva.