Some thoughts about Cionel Perez

[Frobby]

Cionel Perez had the biggest gap between his ERA (1.40) and his xERA (3.62) of any of our pitchers.  His very low ERA wasn’t really matched by his WHIP (1.16), his K/9 (8.6) or his K/BB (2.6).   

Still, I’m cautiously optimistic that he’ll have another good season in 2023.   One thing I noticed is that he got tougher as the year went along.  In April through June he allowed 24 hits and 11 walks in 23.2 IP (1.48 WHIP); in July through October it was 20 hits and 10 walks in 34 IP (0.88 WHIP).   His K rate was about the same in both halves, but his control was better in the second half (2.6 BB/9 compared to 4.2 in the first half).  

So, I’m not expecting a 1.40 ERA again, but I think an ERA below 3.00 is pretty likely.   I feel like Hyde always had a good feel for when to bring in Perez and when to pull him.  

 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Frobby

[btdart20]

Didn’t he add a sinker as the season went along?  And the GB%!

[Sports Guy]

The biggest thing he did in 2022 is throw a lot more strikes.

In the past, his str% was below 60%. This year it was 64%.  If he keeps that up and keeps missing bats, he should be fine.  
 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

I definitely think he is at high risk of regression. Maybe he repeats his outstanding 2022 but his track record suggests we should have a Plan B in case he doesn't. 

[InsideCoroner]

What impressed me with Perez, along with throwing more strikes, was keeping the ball in the park. He only gave up two homers over 57 innings, and held batters to a .568 OPS — which means he basically turned every opposing hitter into Tyler Nevin. Even against righties he kept them to a .587 OPS, so it’s not like he was primarily a lefty specialist.

[Sports Guy]

55 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I definitely think he is at high risk of regression. Maybe he repeats his outstanding 2022 but his track record suggests we should have a Plan B in case he doesn't. 

This is a statement that could be said about so many players on the team, which is why it’s such a headscratcher to me that so many people are content with basically the same pitching staff and offense.  Most want to add a starter and maybe a bat but not much more than that.

Not a big margin for error imo.

[Jim'sKid26]

If we compare his 25 IP in Cin with 2022 in Baltimore a few things stick out.

First of all his BABIP went up to .284 from .264, while his FIP went from 6.30 to 2.80. So he pitched better and the fielding behind him did not have much impact on his numbers.

Secondly, his LOB% went from 58.8% to 84.4%. So he doing what you want a late innings reliever to do and doing it much better in Baltimore.

His hard hit% dropped from 34.8% to 26.8% so he's keeping the ball off the barrel while throwing more strikes (as has been pointed out in another post).

Finally, his average FB velocity increased by almost 1 mph to 97.1 mph. For a little guy he throws the ball very hard.

Those are all good things. He's also very inexpensive. There is a lot to like here.

[nvpacchi]

Is it possible to post pictures here? I can't see any options within the interface.

Messing around with pitching bot, I found a very illuminating graph showing Perez's stuff improving as the year went along - perhaps suggesting that his true talent could be somewhere in the middle of lsat year's xERA and ERA.

Would love to share it here if possible.

 

If you wanna see it online, search for Cionel Perez in the tab on the left:

http://pitchingapp.pitchingbot.com/

and then scroll down to "Overall Grades" close to the bottom of the page.  Lots of elite stuff grades per game compared to earlier in the year.  Still some duds in the second half by stuff, but he was probably being buoyed by a bit of luck earlier on, and then became more dominant as the season went along.

A 5% bump in K%-BB% from first half to second half would also suggest that the stuff got better as the season went along

Edited October 26, 2022 by nvpacchi

[Aristotelian]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is a statement that could be said about so many players on the team, which is why it’s such a headscratcher to me that so many people are content with basically the same pitching staff and offense.  Most want to add a starter and maybe a bat but not much more than that.

Not a big margin for error imo.

I don't know about "so many"... I can't think of anyone on the offense that dramatically outperformed their track record. The bullpen was definitely a surprise, but Perez was in my mind the biggest outlier (2.8 WAR is pretty insane). Tate (1.3 WAR), Voth (1.8 WAR), and Akin (0.8 WAR) also probably overperformed but not nearly as much. Arguably Bautista (2.6 WAR), but looking at his stuff that feels more repeatable to me.

I would say no individual really stands out as a regression risk more so than Perez, but it is unlikely that we will get that consistent overperforming with no underperformers mixed in. If so, I agree with your larger point, it would be worth it to pursue upgrades.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, nvpacchi said:

Is it possible to post pictures here? I can't see any options within the interface.

Messing around with pitching bot, I found a very illuminating graph showing Perez's stuff improving as the year went along - perhaps suggesting that his true talent could be somewhere in the middle of lsat year's xERA and ERA.

Would love to share it here if possible.

 

If you wanna see it online, search for Cionel Perez in the tab on the left:

http://pitchingapp.pitchingbot.com/

and then scroll down to "Overall Grades" close to the bottom of the page.  Lots of elite stuff grades per game compared to earlier in the year.  Still some duds in the second half by stuff, but he was probably being buoyed by a bit of luck earlier on, and then became more dominant as the season went along.

A 5% bump in K%-BB% from first half to second half would also suggest that the stuff got better as the season went along

Neat website.  Thanks for sharing.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

Is it possible to post pictures here? I can't see any options within the interface.

Messing around with pitching bot, I found a very illuminating graph showing Perez's stuff improving as the year went along - perhaps suggesting that his true talent could be somewhere in the middle of lsat year's xERA and ERA.

Would love to share it here if possible.

 

If you wanna see it online, search for Cionel Perez in the tab on the left:

http://pitchingapp.pitchingbot.com/

and then scroll down to "Overall Grades" close to the bottom of the page.  Lots of elite stuff grades per game compared to earlier in the year.  Still some duds in the second half by stuff, but he was probably being buoyed by a bit of luck earlier on, and then became more dominant as the season went along.

A 5% bump in K%-BB% from first half to second half would also suggest that the stuff got better as the season went along

Cool site, never seen that before.

[InsideCoroner]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This is a statement that could be said about so many players on the team, which is why it’s such a headscratcher to me that so many people are content with basically the same pitching staff and offense.  Most want to add a starter and maybe a bat but not much more than that.

Not a big margin for error imo.

I think the majority of people here want to see the team sign / trade for a couple starters, maybe a reliever, and a couple serious bats. 

I was fine with the team not trading prospects to “go for it” this past year, just because I didn’t think this was ‘the’ team. We had no ace(s), we had trouble scoring runs. But this offseason? I definitely want to see them spend money and maybe trade a couple guys. Now is the time. If it doesn’t happen in the next four months, after years and years of waiting (and losing, and suffering), it will seriously put my lifelong fandom of the club in jeopardy. I have been extremely patient and trusted the process, but my patience is mostly done. Let’s go. 

[orioles22]

Having depth is never a bad idea, but I don't subscribe to the idea that Perez is due for a decline. I think you could outsmart yourself and trade someone like Perez when you can sell high and then he turns out to be just as good next year and the guy you replace him with isn't nearly as good.

[PHRESH]

54 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

Having depth is never a bad idea, but I don't subscribe to the idea that Perez is due for a decline. I think you could outsmart yourself and trade someone like Perez when you can sell high and then he turns out to be just as good next year and the guy you replace him with isn't nearly as good.

But what if I could offer you cash considerations? 

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, orioles22 said:

Having depth is never a bad idea, but I don't subscribe to the idea that Perez is due for a decline. I think you could outsmart yourself and trade someone like Perez when you can sell high and then he turns out to be just as good next year and the guy you replace him with isn't nearly as good.

Depends on what you mean by decline.  It's pretty likely that Perez' ERA will be a run or more higher next year just his results catching up with his expected results.  Rivera is arguably the best modern reliever ever and he had two seasons with an ERA around Perez' 1.41.  Perez could pitch just as well next year and have a 2.50.