Orioles Players who could be Rule 5 Candidates

[CharmCityHokie]

Edit and Disclaimer: The Following is not a list of players I think the Orioles should add to their 40-man roster, rather a list of players who I don't think who will be added who could potentially be of interest to other rebuilding teams based on past Rule 5 patterns. I'm not advocating for any of the following players to take an Orioles 40 man roster spot. Those who will be added, or should be, have been discussed in other threads. 

 

It's nearly my favorite time of year, Rule 5 season! There have been other threads about the likely additions to the Orioles 40-man roster and I don't want to rehash those, but wanted to look a little deeper to see if there are bubble guys that teams like the Pirates or Athletics or Nationals might take a wild chance on in Spring Training. As a caveat regarding the following list, some of these guys are technically minor league free agents, but for the overall exercise I'm assuming they all love the Orioles too much not to resign a new minor league contract. There are also a whole host of players who are Rule 5 eligible but I do not think any team would waste a 40-man spot on that I did not include. Maybe I'll do a AAA Rule 5 follow up. 

Pitchers:

Easton Lucas -  The player we received from the Marlins in exchange for Jonathan Villar's arbitration raise, he spent the entire season in Bowie's bullpen. He is very similar to the above-listed Bishop in terms of numbers. He's a lefty, has a strong K rate, walks too many guys and despite being a starter earlier in his career has moved to a fulltime relief role. To his credit, he's one of the few pitchers in the Arizona Fall League putting up decent numbers (in a tiny sample size, of course).

Jake Prizina - Sticking with LHP relievers, Prizina got plucked in the 31st round of the '19 draft (I miss 40 round drafts). He pitched 58 innings, all in relief, putting up decent K numbers, relatively low BB numbers and a good WHIP, splitting his season between A+/AA. I doubt he'll catch many teams' eye, but figured he was worth a mention.

Alex Wells - Our old friend from Down Under, I'm pretty sure he's eligible for free agency but if he were to resign a minor league contract with the Orioles he would be Rule 5 eligible and it wouldn't surprise me to see another team take a shot.

Brenan Hanifee - The RHP has been in the organization since being a 4th rounder in 2016, but this past season was the first time since 2019 that he's pitched due to injuries. His season went okay, he made it AA, making 13 starts (only 43 IP) with the highest K rate of his professional career (8.2K/9) and strong WHIP (1.15). I had strong hopes for him earlier in his career given his GO/AO rates (was hoping for a pre-injured Brad Bergesen kinda pitcher), but those high rates of groundballs have seemed to level out. He's got a good pitcher's frame and had some early promise, I wouldn't be too shocked if a team took a longshot on him.

Garrett Stallings - I'm including Stallings (who came over for Jose Iglesias; one of what seems like 50 former Angels draftees in our ranks, ) and I'm not including Kevin Smith who is also eligible (traded for Miguel Castro) because I saw Stallings pitch in person one time and maybe that was the only good game he had but he was on fire, he looked like a Major League pitcher. But if you look at his ERA, it's awful. He ate innings, put up good K/BB numbers but had a problem with HRs and contact allowed. He was basically 2021 Matt Harvey, just at Bowie. But his name comes to mind because I remember being impressed with the game he pitched, maybe some random scout saw only that game too and was like, yea, he's worth a shot (I doubt it).

Adam Stauffer - The towering righty (6' 7"...which is still 5 inches shorter then the recently drafted LHP Jared Beck) is my pick, along with Hanifee as the most likely on this list of unlikely picks. Drafted out of high school in the 19th round of the '17 draft, he's put up strong numbers as he has slowly worked his way to AA where he was a bulk reliever/swing starter. Strong ERA, contact numbers, and K rate are all pluses, but the BB numbers have climbed. 

Cole Uvila - The last of the pitchers on this list (mostly because he's a minor league FA and is likely to become a journeyman), he's always put up strong K rates, too high of BB rates and seems to always end up with a middling WHIP. He didn't allow a homerun in 44 IP this AAA season however, so I'll add that to the plus column

 

Hitters:

Maverick Handley -  This is one of the main players on this list that border on the better belonging in the "Should he be protected on the 40-man" discussions. I think he should, but give the early developments of additional catchers to the roster, it initially seems that the organization isn't super interested in Maverick (I mean, it makes sense though right, how could you possible risk losing Bemboom...). Handley had his best offensive season once he reached AA this year, putting up double digit homeruns and a strong OBP. He's reportedly a strong defensive catcher and from clips I've seen, has a great arm. I think he should be protected, I just don't know if he will be.

Cody Roberts - Our 11th round pick in 2018, Roberts has been figuring out how to hit as he works the ladders as the fill-in catcher moving between AA and AAA. He had his best offensive season while getting his most professional ABs and had a strong CS% behind the plate. His defensive reputation is as an average catcher, but if the Orioles pluck one more guy off the waiver wire the entire league is going to need catching, so there's an off chance he could get picked. 

Brett Cumberland - Brett has had an atrocious last few seasons in AAA. He's not really a catcher but he still gets behind the plate, his trademark power has seemed to disappear as injuries mounted, and his one saving grace is his strong OBP, which is mostly due to the amount of times he gets hit by a pitch, 113 times in his minor league career (see previous note about mounting injuries). He had prospect status once, which is probably the only reason I'm including him.

Greg Cullen - One of two oft-injured IFs we received so that Tommy Milone could throw all of 9 innings in Atlanta. (remember when Tommy Milone was an Oriole? Frobby remembers...). Cullen is kind of like an always hurt Terrin Vavra. He is really good at getting on base (nearly a .400 career OBP), has little power, and is limited to 2B/Corner outfield. Not exactly the pick of the litter in the R5, but if a team needs a 2B, I could see them taking a chance. 

Adam Hall - 2nd Rounder in 2017 draft out of a Canadian high school, the speedster got just a taste of AAA before the season ended. He has played primarily CF recently, but came up as a SS and has 2B experience. He's fast and can get on base, but has little to no power. He reminds me a bit LJ Hoes in terms of overall game play.

DJ Stewart - I'm only including DJ because if he were to re-sign with the Orioles on a minor league deal, he would be eligible for the Rule 5. I assume his agent sees the forest through the trees and knows it's time to move on with the outfield the Orioles currently have. He may re-sign, and I bet a team might take a chance on him (remember when the Orioles re-signed Chris Gomez to a minor league deal and the Phillies took him in the R5?)

Edited November 3, 2022 by CharmCityHokie

[mlrhode]

26 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

It's nearly my favorite time of year, Rule 5 season! There have been other threads about the likely additions to the Orioles 40-man roster and I don't want to rehash those, but wanted to look a little deeper to see if there are bubble guys that teams like the Pirates or Athletics or Nationals might take a wild chance on in Spring Training. As a caveat regarding the following list, some of these guys are technically minor league free agents, but for the overall exercise I'm assuming they all love the Orioles too much not to resign a new minor league contract. There are also a whole host of players who are Rule 5 eligible but I do not think any team would waste a 40-man spot on that I did not include. Maybe I'll do a AAA Rule 5 follow up. 

Pitchers:

Cameron Bishop - Been moving up the ranks since he was drafted in the 26th Round in 2017. Finally made it to AAA this season after pitching completely out of the bullpen for the first time in his professional career. Put up strong K rates, but also had a lot of BB's. He spent some time on the IL and only got 27 IP in, but he's a lefty with decent career peripherals so there is always a chance a team could be interested

Easton Lucas -  The player we received from the Marlins in exchange for Jonathan Villar's arbitration raise, he spent the entire season in Bowie's bullpen. He is very similar to the above-listed Bishop in terms of numbers. He's a lefty, has a strong K rate, walks too many guys and despite being a starter earlier in his career has moved to a fulltime relief role. To his credit, he's one of the few pitchers in the Arizona Fall League putting up decent numbers (in a tiny sample size, of course).

Jake Prizina - Sticking with LHP relievers, Prizina got plucked in the 31st round of the '19 draft (I miss 40 round drafts). He pitched 58 innings, all in relief, putting up decent K numbers, relatively low BB numbers and a good WHIP, splitting his season between A+/AA. I doubt he'll catch many teams' eye, but figured he was worth a mention.

Alex Wells - Our old friend from Down Under, I'm pretty sure he's eligible for free agency but if he were to resign a minor league contract with the Orioles he would be Rule 5 eligible and it wouldn't surprise me to see another team take a shot.

Brenan Hanifee - The RHP has been in the organization since being a 4th rounder in 2016, but this past season was the first time since 2019 that he's pitched due to injuries. His season went okay, he made it AA, making 13 starts (only 43 IP) with the highest K rate of his professional career (8.2K/9) and strong WHIP (1.15). I had strong hopes for him earlier in his career given his GO/AO rates (was hoping for a pre-injured Brad Bergesen kinda pitcher), but those high rates of groundballs have seemed to level out. He's got a good pitcher's frame and had some early promise, I wouldn't be too shocked if a team took a longshot on him.

Garrett Stallings - I'm including Stallings (who came over for Jose Iglesias; one of what seems like 50 former Angels draftees in our ranks, ) and I'm not including Kevin Smith who is also eligible (traded for Miguel Castro) because I saw Stallings pitch in person one time and maybe that was the only good game he had but he was on fire, he looked like a Major League pitcher. But if you look at his ERA, it's awful. He ate innings, put up good K/BB numbers but had a problem with HRs and contact allowed. He was basically 2021 Matt Harvey, just at Bowie. But his name comes to mind because I remember being impressed with the game he pitched, maybe some random scout saw only that game too and was like, yea, he's worth a shot (I doubt it).

Adam Stauffer - The towering righty (6' 7"...which is still 5 inches shorter then the recently drafted LHP Jared Beck) is my pick, along with Hanifee as the most likely on this list of unlikely picks. Drafted out of high school in the 19th round of the '17 draft, he's put up strong numbers as he has slowly worked his way to AA where he was a bulk reliever/swing starter. Strong ERA, contact numbers, and K rate are all pluses, but the BB numbers have climbed. 

Cole Uvila - The last of the pitchers on this list (mostly because he's a minor league FA and is likely to become a journeyman), he's always put up strong K rates, too high of BB rates and seems to always end up with a middling WHIP. He didn't allow a homerun in 44 IP this AAA season however, so I'll add that to the plus column

 

Hitters:

Maverick Handley -  This is one of the main players on this list that border on the better belonging in the "Should he be protected on the 40-man" discussions. I think he should, but give the early developments of additional catchers to the roster, it initially seems that the organization isn't super interested in Maverick (I mean, it makes sense though right, how could you possible risk losing Bemboom...). Handley had his best offensive season once he reached AA this year, putting up double digit homeruns and a strong OBP. He's reportedly a strong defensive catcher and from clips I've seen, has a great arm. I think he should be protected, I just don't know if he will be.

Cody Roberts - Our 11th round pick in 2018, Roberts has been figuring out how to hit as he works the ladders as the fill-in catcher moving between AA and AAA. He had his best offensive season while getting his most professional ABs and had a strong CS% behind the plate. His defensive reputation is as an average catcher, but if the Orioles pluck one more guy off the waiver wire the entire league is going to need catching, so there's an off chance he could get picked. 

Brett Cumberland - Brett has had an atrocious last few seasons in AAA. He's not really a catcher but he still gets behind the plate, his trademark power has seemed to disappear as injuries mounted, and his one saving grace is his strong OBP, which is mostly due to the amount of times he gets hit by a pitch, 113 times in his minor league career (see previous note about mounting injuries). He had prospect status once, which is probably the only reason I'm including him.

Greg Cullen - One of two oft-injured IFs we received so that Tommy Milone could throw all of 9 innings in Atlanta. (remember when Tommy Milone was an Oriole? Frobby remembers...). Cullen is kind of like an always hurt Terrin Vavra. He is really good at getting on base (nearly a .400 career OBP), has little power, and is limited to 2B/Corner outfield. Not exactly the pick of the litter in the R5, but if a team needs a 2B, I could see them taking a chance. 

Adam Hall - 2nd Rounder in 2017 draft out of a Canadian high school, the speedster got just a taste of AAA before the season ended. He has played primarily CF recently, but came up as a SS and has 2B experience. He's fast and can get on base, but has little to no power. He reminds me a bit LJ Hoes in terms of overall game play.

DJ Stewart - I'm only including DJ because if he were to re-sign with the Orioles on a minor league deal, he would be eligible for the Rule 5. I assume his agent sees the forest through the trees and knows it's time to move on with the outfield the Orioles currently have. He may re-sign, and I bet a team might take a chance on him (remember when the Orioles re-signed Chris Gomez to a minor league deal and the Phillies took him in the R5?)

I think Bishop retired in July.

[CharmCityHokie]

8 minutes ago, mlrhode said:

I think Bishop retired in July.

I believe you are correct, I clearly did not do enough research before typing all this out. I removed him from the list. I'm sure it won't be the last thing I got wrong!

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, mlrhode said:

I think Bishop retired in July.

[Aristotelian]

I would think Rom and Denoyer should be on the list. In fact, I think they would be locks to be selected.

[Tony-OH]

Maverick Handley is the only player on your list that should even be considered for the 40-man. Since the Orioles are cornering the market on backup catchers already, they may not see the need though.

 

[CharmCityHokie]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I would think Rom and Denoyer should be on the list. In fact, I think they would be locks to be selected.

Oh yea, without a doubt, I don't think I made the point of this list very clear. I think there are a certain group already discussed in other threads (including Rom and Denoyer) that will be locks to be included, I was looking at other guys who aren't going to be added to the Orioles 40 man that might have some semblance of interest to another team. I should have made that more clear. 

[CharmCityHokie]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Maverick Handley is the only player on your list that should even be considered for the 40-man. Since the Orioles are cornering the market on backup catchers already, they may not see the need though.

 

I absolutely agree with you Tony, I think I did a poor job of wording what I was trying to accomplish. I don't think any of the listed players should be taking up an Orioles 40-man spot (other than maybe Handley),  rather I was looking at players who I don't think will be added who could potentially be of interest to other rebuilding teams based on past Rule 5 patterns. I put an edit at the top of the post to make that more clear. Apologies for any confusion.

[Aristotelian]

36 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

Oh yea, without a doubt, I don't think I made the point of this list very clear. I think there are a certain group already discussed in other threads (including Rom and Denoyer) that will be locks to be included, I was looking at other guys who aren't going to be added to the Orioles 40 man that might have some semblance of interest to another team. I should have made that more clear. 

That makes sense. Neustrom might be another guy. He has shown some eye test MLB power but disappointed a bit last year.

Is Seth Johnson still R5 eligible even though he is injured?

[CharmCityHokie]

25 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That makes sense. Neustrom might be another guy. He has shown some eye test MLB power but disappointed a bit last year.

Is Seth Johnson still R5 eligible even though he is injured?

Neustrom is another good fringe possibility, though as you said he had a pretty down season overall.

Seth Johnson is R5 eligible and I assume will be added to the 40-man, I assume they wouldn't have traded for him unless they intended on protecting him but he's an interesting case given his timeline for recovery, age and relatively limited professional innings. 

[CHIP]

On 11/2/2022 at 1:47 PM, CharmCityHokie said:

Brett Cumberland - Brett has had an atrocious last few seasons in AAA. He's not really a catcher but he still gets behind the plate, his trademark power has seemed to disappear as injuries mounted, and his one saving grace is his strong OBP, which is mostly due to the amount of times he gets hit by a pitch, 113 times in his minor league career (see previous note about mounting injuries). He had prospect status once, which is probably the only reason I'm including him.

Tell me if I am wrong...  Doesn't make much sense for a club to pay $100K to take Cumberland via MLB Rule 5 when they could get him for 'free' if he just becomes a MiLB free agent then use that money to sign a MiLB contract? 

Cumberland was drafted in 2016.  From a Google search, "A player becomes eligible to sign with any organization as a minor league free agent when he has played six full minor-league seasons with the club that drafted him."  Brett didn't choose free Agency last year (after his 6th year) likely because it was the Orioles version of the Wild West going into Spring Training and he had a pretty crappy 2021 AAA season by his standards (excluding the HBP total).  So he may have thought he had a chance.  His agency, you would think, would be pretty active looking for a better opportunity for him elsewhere?  But if he is still with the O's going into Spring training that would mean it is still his "best chance".

[CharmCityHokie]

8 minutes ago, CHIP said:

Tell me if I am wrong...  Doesn't make much sense for a club to pay $100K to take Cumberland via MLB Rule 5 when they could get him for 'free' if he just becomes a MiLB free agent then use that money to sign a MiLB contract? 

Cumberland was drafted in 2016.  From a Google search, "A player becomes eligible to sign with any organization as a minor league free agent when he has played six full minor-league seasons with the club that drafted him."  Brett didn't choose free Agency last year (after his 6th year) likely because it was the Orioles version of the Wild West going into Spring Training and he had a pretty crappy 2021 AAA season by his standards (excluding the HBP total).  So he may have thought he had a chance.  His agency, you would think, would be pretty active looking for a better opportunity for him elsewhere?  But if he is still with the O's going into Spring training that would mean it is still his "best chance".

Indeed, I don't disagree, I tried to point out in my opening paragraph that several of the players on this list are eligible for MiLB FA, but some do re-sign and would still be eligible for the Rule5. I'm not saying any of these guys are strong R5 candidates, or will even be in the system next year, just reviewing who was technically eligible and had some trait a team might take a shine to and to give them an audition in spring training (based on past trend in R5 drafts). 

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I absolutely agree with you Tony, I think I did a poor job of wording what I was trying to accomplish. I don't think any of the listed players should be taking up an Orioles 40-man spot (other than maybe Handley),  rather I was looking at players who I don't think will be added who could potentially be of interest to other rebuilding teams based on past Rule 5 patterns. I put an edit at the top of the post to make that more clear. Apologies for any confusion.

Gotcha, no worries. You are looking deep into the system, I like that. Good job.

And I'll be honest, I haven't seen any threads on the Rule 5 already so it must be buried in another thread somewhere. We probably need one thread to discuss the Rule 5 eligible players and the 40-man.