Would you sign Trea Turner…for CF?

[Sports Guy]

51 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You seem to assume the market undervalues the infielders and overvalues Santander/Mullins. I'm not convinced of either. I would operate on the assumption the market fairly values the players and look for opportunities where the market has needs and we have assets, and vice versa. 

And fair market value is prospects with no history of being good vs 2 AS level players with multiple years of control on the right side of 30.

 

[Sports Guy]

40 minutes ago, interloper said:

If you agree that there's no way he would sign here to play CF AND that it's a bad sign even if he plays SS, why make the thread? You're just wasting everyone's time. You made a thread simply to disagree with anyone who thinks it's a good idea. That's not a "discussion", it's a trap. To pass it off as something genuine is par for the course with your daily charade on this website. 

Because it’s an idea I have seen people mention and I was curious about the boards thoughts on it.

You see, this is a discussion board and on a discussion board, ideas are discussed and thrown out and just because I don’t agree with it, doesn’t mean there isn’t value in the discussion.  
 

Why you feel the need to complain about it is beyond me but seeing as it’s you doing it, I can’t say im surprised by the trolling and over the top ignorance.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First off, let me say that I think the beauty of this offseason is that the team can go in many directions and I don’t think there are many “wrong” paths, as long as they greatly improve the talent on the team.

As for replacements…Abreu would kind of be the Santander replacement, as I don’t see him playing in the OF a ton moving forward.  Yoshida could also fill that role.  There are also likely names we don’t know about yet that will become available.

Despite the injury history, I also like Michael Brantley.

As for CF, again assuming other guys don’t become available that are unknowns right now, I don’t mind the approach of “Mateo’ing” CF.  In other words, defense and speed combo guys that may not hit a ton but the overall value is good.  Think of a platoon with McKenna and Brett Philips (both high OAA guys last year). Or bring Keirmeier here.  Something like that.  If you feel Cowser can handle CF, that’s fine too.

I would definitely move Hays to a 4th OFer role. I don’t trust him to stay healthy and don’t want to go into next year relying on him to be a 500+ at bat guy.  Plus he doesn’t do great vs righties.

As for the pitchers you mentioned…I’m out on Rodon unless he gets fewer years than I think.  I think he’s an excellent pitcher but the health is a problem and I wouldn’t pay a 5/125-150 deal for a pitcher with his health history.(I don’t know that I would pay it for any pitcher but that certainly takes him out for me)

Verlander I would be intrigued by on a 2 year deal.  Prefer 1 with an option but I don’t think I would outbid other teams for him, at least if he gets what I think he will.

Bassitt is a tough one for me.  I sort of buy into him but I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t pay what it would take to get him. 
 

I really  don’t like free agency.  Never really have.  I wouldn’t ignore it and I certainly would sign some guys but I think the value is in the trade market and I value that value.

 

I appreciate the thoughtful response to your approach to the offseason.

I have some points of departure, especially the McKenna/Phillips approach. Honestly, if the O's did something like that I might go back into hibernation as a fan. 2018 (really 17 as well) - 2021 was too rough for the O's to do that to us. They owe us as fans some good will by showing that they are invested in giving us the best product/team that they can and legitimately trying to build a roster that is good enough to compete for a pennant. McKenna/Phillips and/or Kiermaier would be a serious step backwards and in the wrong direction if we are actually trying to be serious about winning.

Brantley while a good player is a substantial injury risk. I would rather the club just spend what it takes on quality because when it comes to good players it cost what it cost. If we were ever going to spend on good players for the top of the roster as you said, it indeed is now when we are literally not paying anyone anything.

If that means paying Verlander more or Bassitt then so be it! The org has been pocketing the profits for 4 years. We deserve better as a fanbase!

Oh and I agree on Rodon, the injury risk for a longer term contract I don't believe are going to be worth the reward.

Lastly, I have heard several O's fans mention Lopez as a good trade target. What do you think? 

Personally, my thoughts are that he is not that much better than what we currently have, which is a bunch of "5 and dive guys". We are going to need more length out of our starters next year if we don't want to wear Bautista out down the stretch like this year. He had nothing left toward the end of the season because we were asking him to get 5 out saves. Can you imagine if we would have actually made it to the postseason this year? I'm not sure what we could have gotten out of him or for that matter any of our back end guys not named Perez due to overuse. And I'm not sure that it would be wise to count on Perez repeating 2022 in 2023.

[Moose Milligan]

I would, just to see SG's reaction.  Could be fun.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I appreciate the thoughtful response to your approach to the offseason.

I have some points of departure, especially the McKenna/Phillips approach. Honestly, if the O's did something like that I might go back into hibernation as a fan. 2018 (really 17 as well) - 2021 was too rough for the O's to do that to us. They owe us as fans some good will by showing that they are invested in giving us the best product/team that they can and legitimately trying to build a roster that is good enough to compete for a pennant. McKenna/Phillips and/or Kiermaier would be a serious step backwards and in the wrong direction if we are actually trying to be serious about winning.

Brantley while a good player is a substantial injury risk. I would rather the club just spend what it takes on quality because when it comes to good players it cost what it cost. If we were ever going to spend on good players for the top of the roster as you said, it indeed is now when we are literally not paying anyone anything.

If that means paying Verlander more or Bassitt then so be it! The org has been pocketing the profits for 4 years. We deserve better as a fanbase!

Oh and I agree on Rodon, the injury risk for a longer term contract I don't believe are going to be worth the reward.

Lastly, I have heard several O's fans mention Lopez as a good trade target. What do you think? 

Personally, my thoughts are that he is not that much better than what we currently have, which is a bunch of "5 and dive guys". We are going to need more length out of our starters next year if we don't want to wear Bautista out down the stretch like this year. He had nothing left toward the end of the season because we were asking him to get 5 out saves. Can you imagine if we would have actually made it to the postseason this year? I'm not sure what we could have gotten out of him or for that matter any of our back end guys not named Perez due to overuse. And I'm not sure that it would be wise to count on Perez repeating 2022 in 2023.

Well, I think you have to realize that you aren’t going to have AS at every position and you are going to have guys that maybe aren’t good at something..hitting, fielding, etc…every contender has multiple guys like that.

If you are getting elite level defense at a key position and you can get a 650-700 OPS out of a platoon, I’m good with that.

I mean, I want to replace Mateo because I think we have equivalent or better cheaper, younger options but the reality is that despite that crappy OPS, he still was a 3ish WAR guy.  That has tremendous value.  If we can have a similar situation to that in CF, I don’t see what’s wrong with that…PROVIDED that you are upgrading elsewhere.  See that’s the key.  If you lose 1-2 WAR in one spot but you gain multiple WAR as a result(ie, you deal Mullins for improved pitching) and you upgrade elsewhere, you are a better team for it.  I don’t want them to trade Mullins, downgrade CF and ignore other areas.  It doesn’t matter how you score or prevent runs.  All that matters is that you do it.

I like Lopez.  I have been on him for a year. I don’t think he cures our pitching issues but I think he’s better than what we have and he’s on the list of potential targets.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I would, just to see SG's reaction.  Could be fun.

Well, if they did it, at least it means they are spending.  Turner has been a 6+ WAR guy the last 2 years.  I just don’t buy that he will be that going forward.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, if they did it, at least it means they are spending.  Turner has been a 6+ WAR guy the last 2 years.  I just don’t buy that he will be that going forward.

I don't either.  Even if the speed declines some, he's still probably faster than most.  But given the amount of middle infielder types we have in the system, I wouldn't risk it.  And I don't know about CF either.  Again, the speed declines, but to what degree?  Seems like an unnecessary risk.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I don't either.  Even if the speed declines some, he's still probably faster than most.  But given the amount of middle infielder types we have in the system, I wouldn't risk it.  And I don't know about CF either.  Again, the speed declines, but to what degree?  Seems like an unnecessary risk.  

But his slides at home plate are super cool!

Im just amazed at how many people want to hand over so much money to him (and other SS options).

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't either.  Even if the speed declines some, he's still probably faster than most.  But given the amount of middle infielder types we have in the system, I wouldn't risk it.  And I don't know about CF either.  Again, the speed declines, but to what degree?  Seems like an unnecessary risk.  

Didn't Frobby post something about how Statcast sprint speed declines over time?

Had to do with Catchers if I remember correctly.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But his slides at home plate are super cool!

Im just amazed at how many people want to hand over so much money to him (and other SS options).

Well, conditioning and medicine is at an all time best now.  I'm not sure how that would play a part here.  Also Turner looks to have the body type to where he might be able to sustain that speed for longer than I'd expect.  Slight frame, not a lot of pounding on the joints, etc.

I'm playing devil's advocate here.  I wouldn't want to sign him to a huge contract.  Too much of a risk.

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Didn't Frobby post something about how Statcast sprint speed declines over time?

Had to do with Catchers if I remember correctly.

Hell if I know, why don't you ask Frobby?  Are you Phillip or something?

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well, conditioning and medicine is at an all time best now.  I'm not sure how that would play a part here.  Also Turner looks to have the body type to where he might be able to sustain that speed for longer than I'd expect.  Slight frame, not a lot of pounding on the joints, etc.

I'm playing devil's advocate here.  I wouldn't want to sign him to a huge contract.  Too much of a risk.

Hell if I know, why don't you ask Frobby?  Are you Phillip or something?

You asked the question.

I'm not curious as to the answer.

I'm kinda busy watching Suburban Lawn performances from 40 years ago.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[Bemorewins]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I think you have to realize that you aren’t going to have AS at every position and you are going to have guys that maybe aren’t good at something..hitting, fielding, etc…every contender has multiple guys like that.

If you are getting elite level defense at a key position and you can get a 650-700 OPS out of a platoon, I’m good with that.

I mean, I want to replace Mateo because I think we have equivalent or better cheaper, younger options but the reality is that despite that crappy OPS, he still was a 3ish WAR guy.  That has tremendous value.  If we can have a similar situation to that in CF, I don’t see what’s wrong with that…PROVIDED that you are upgrading elsewhere.  See that’s the key.  If you lose 1-2 WAR in one spot but you gain multiple WAR as a result(ie, you deal Mullins for improved pitching) and you upgrade elsewhere, you are a better team for it.  I don’t want them to trade Mullins, downgrade CF and ignore other areas.  It doesn’t matter how you score or prevent runs.  All that matters is that you do it.

I like Lopez.  I have been on him for a year. I don’t think he cures our pitching issues but I think he’s better than what we have and he’s on the list of potential targets.

I agree with the first part. I know we shouldn't expect all stars at every position, but we can't have as many positions as last year that are subpar in terms of offensive production. We don't have that kind of starting pitching to carry that type of offense.

The problem right now as I see it is that we have too many regular guys in the lineup that are not good offensive players (Hays, Odor [though I know he won't be back], Mateo). Shoot Mountcastle is barely adequate. That's nearly half the lineup. Adding another of those type players into our everyday lineup means that we will need to bring in star level or maybe even superstar level players to improve the offense given the supbar players we are already running out there everyday. 

In order to be a legitimate threat to be the best team at the end of the season, some part of our team has to reasonable good/consistent. We can have a bunch of mediocre starters that are 5 inning pitchers who are all slightly above league average. AND then combine that with an offense that is middle of the pack.

That will get us the results of last season, where we had to over rely on the bullpen which was the only upper echelon part of our team. That's a recipe for a team that will be mid to high level 80's in terms of season's end, struggling to make the final wildcard.

I personally would like to ADD to both our starting pitching and offensive lineup given the make up of the current roster and the financial resources we should have at our disposal. I believe doing so decreases the variance for next year's wins outcome and gives us a much greater chance to be in the postseason and perform well once there.

Again, (this question is not just for you) but if we are NOT going to seriously spend NOW (meaning this offseason) when projected payroll is so low, then when?

I just don't think it's reasonable for the O's to ask the fans to continue to be loyal when they are not making the effort to put out a good product. That would be like Disney beginning to put out a series of bad Marvel movies and then getting upset with the customer base for not supporting them because they are Disney/Marvel. At some point the organization has to do right by it's fans. And in my opinion, going cheap and trying to piecemeal the roster to pretend to contend is not it. Not after the last 5 years, really the last 20+. They have to start doing better!

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree with the first part. I know we shouldn't expect all stars at every position, but we can't have as many positions as last year that are subpar in terms of offensive production. We don't have that kind of starting pitching to carry that type of offense.

The problem right now as I see it is that we have too many regular guys in the lineup that are not good offensive players (Hays, Odor [though I know he won't be back], Mateo). Shoot Mountcastle is barely adequate. That's nearly half the lineup. Adding another of those type players into our everyday lineup means that we will need to bring in star level or maybe even superstar level players to improve the offense given the supbar players we are already running out there everyday. 

In order to be a legitimate threat to be the best team at the end of the season, some part of our team has to reasonable good/consistent. We can have a bunch of mediocre starters that are 5 inning pitchers who are all slightly above league average. AND then combine that with an offense that is middle of the pack.

That will get us the results of last season, where we had to over rely on the bullpen which was the only upper echelon part of our team. That's a recipe for a team that will be mid to high level 80's in terms of season's end, struggling to make the final wildcard.

I personally would like to ADD to both our starting pitching and offensive lineup given the make up of the current roster and the financial resources we should have at our disposal. I believe doing so decreases the variance for next year's wins outcome and gives us a much greater chance to be in the postseason and perform well once there.

Again, (this question is not just for you) but if we are NOT going to seriously spend NOW (meaning this offseason) when projected payroll is so low, then when?

I just don't think it's reasonable for the O's to ask the fans to continue to be loyal when they are not making the effort to put out a good product. That would be like Disney beginning to put out a series of bad Marvel movies and then getting upset with the customer base for not supporting them because they are Disney/Marvel. At some point the organization has to do right by it's fans. And in my opinion, going cheap and trying to piecemeal the roster to pretend to contend is not it. Not after the last 5 years, really the last 20+. They have to start doing better!

Well, I’m not adding to the positions of being weak offensively.  In fact, I’m getting rid of all of them except, hypothetically, CF. 

Last year, the weak offensive spots were the MI, C (until Adley came up) and 3rd..Urias was up and down offensively..adequate but up and down.  
 

But I’m getting rid of all of that.

As for the starting pitching, that’s why I’m reading Mullins..to help make that rotation better.

This is all about your resources and how you allocate them.