How likely are the O's to pursue Bassitt?

[wildcard]

(As far as I can figure.  Please correct me if I am wrong.)

Bassitt recieved and refused a Qualifying Offer.   Therefore the team that signs him will give up their third highest draft choice in 2023.

 For the O's that will be the 17th pick in the second round if the O's get a competitive balance pick in round A.

It will be the competitive balance pick after the 2nd round if the O's  get a competitive balance pick in round B.

We will not know which pick that MLB assigns to the O's until sometime before the draft.  MLB uses a formula that is a combination of  team revenue, win percentage and market position.  I have not been able to find the formula so I don't believe its public.

So how valuable is that pick to Elias.   So far I would say he has valued it greatly.  Therefore Elias will weigh the difference between Bassitt and the next player that does not have a competitive balance pick associated with that player.   I think its likely that he will determine that it is not beneficial to lose the pick.

Therefore I doubt he pursues Bassitt.  

What do you think?

Edited November 17, 2022 by wildcard

[tabletop]

I think it all depends on how they view him. If they think he's a fine #1/#2 starter on a playoff team it won't matter. If they view him as more of a solid #3 guy you can rely on I would guess they wouldn't sign him.

[wildcard]

And Elias will figure in how long he will pitch well and stay healthy considering that he will be 34 and require at least a 3 year contract.

[Roll Tide]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

(As far as I can figure.  Please correct me if I am wrong.)

Bassitt recieved and refused a Qualifying Offer.   Therefore the team that signs him will give up their third highest draft choice in 2023.

 For the O's that will be the 17th pick in the second round if the O's get a competitive balance pick in round A.

It will be the competitive balance pick after the 2nd round if the O's  get a competitive balance pick in round B.

We will not know which pick that MLB assigns to the O's until sometime before the draft.  MLB uses a formula that is a combination of  team revenue, win percentage and market position.  I have not been able to find the formula so I don't believe its public.

So how valuable is that pick to Elias.   So far I would say he has valued it greatly.  Therefore Elias will weigh the difference between Bassitt and the next player that does not have a competitive balance pick associated with that player.   I think its likely that he will determine that it is not beneficial to lose the pick.

Therefore I doubt he pursues Bassitt.  

What do you think?

So his numbers are similar to Wacha minus 30 innings. I think Wacha plus the draft pick is greater than 180 innings of Bassit at the same ERA.

[tabletop]

12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So his numbers are similar to Wacha minus 30 innings. I think Wacha plus the draft pick is greater than 180 innings of Bassit at the same ERA.

Wacha was good last year but he threw 50 innings less than Bassitt did. From 2019-2021 Wacha was a below average pitcher while Bassitt was an above average pitcher.

[Sports Guy]

The Wacha talk has to stop.

[Aristotelian]

Our 3rd highest picks under Elias: Stowers, Haskin, Trimble, Wagner. Good players but probably not anyone you'd worry about giving up for a chance to sign a Rodon for 5 years. Of course, some players have been drafted lower than that and now look to be at least 2nd tier prospects (Mayo, Ortiz). 

P with QO: Degrom, Bassit, Eovaldi

Available P without QO: Kershaw, Verlander, Gibson, Kluber, Manaea, Taijuan, Syndergaard, Greinke, Kluber. Definitely narrows the list. Seems like the top two may not pick up the phone for the O's, the others are a noticeable step down, more like #3 than true TOR guys. Then again, Grayson might be our #1. 

 

 

[Mooreisbetter27]

31 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Our 3rd highest picks under Elias: Stowers, Haskin, Trimble, Wagner. Good players but probably not anyone you'd worry about giving up for a chance to sign a Rodon for 5 years. Of course, some players have been drafted lower than that and now look to be at least 2nd tier prospects (Mayo, Ortiz). 

P with QO: Degrom, Bassit, Eovaldi

Available P without QO: Kershaw, Verlander, Gibson, Kluber, Manaea, Taijuan, Syndergaard, Greinke, Kluber. Definitely narrows the list. Seems like the top two may not pick up the phone for the O's, the others are a noticeable step down, more like #3 than true TOR guys. Then again, Grayson might be our #1. 

 

 

Kershaw already resigned with the Dodgers on a one year deal.  

[bpilktree]

I think with the attachment of the pick Bassitt will not be on are list unless they fail on other guys who don't cost a pick.   I could see making run at deGrom or even Rondon and draft pick attached but I see to many guys at the same level as Bassitt that it pushes him below the other guys.  Then add in age and health and he would be a last option for me.  

[sportsfan8703]

Welp I had really liked Bassitt, but I don’t see Elias giving up a draft pick for him, plus paying him. Next target…

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think the pick will matter unless he likes multiple pitchers equally and chooses one where the pick doesn’t get lost.

[sportsfan8703]

Last year the slot amount for the 17th pick in the 2nd rd was $1.31 million. It’s the total pool money that really matters versus who we’ve actually taken with that pick. 
 

Thanks @wildcard for pointing out the QO. I think this factors into FA. Elias uses the pool money to essentially trade down/up in the draft. I doubt he does anything to lose a pick. IMO, his drafting looks really good after the bounce back seasons from Cowser and Kjerstad, plus the early returns on the college bats we just took. Let that man draft with all his resources. 

[interloper]

I'd reserve giving up the pick for a more impactful player, personally. But if we have to settle, we have to settle. Hopefully this isn't an offseason where we're picking up the scraps in February a la Cobb and Ubaldo. 

[webbrick2010]

Bassitt is the guy I want

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Bassitt is the guy I want

Me too. I really do think the pick changes things. Especially with players signing for much higher than the predictions. I just don’t see the O’s giving him 3/60. I like Heaney but I doubt our physical will. I think we’re looking at Kluber or Clevinger on one year deals. Possibly a reunion with Lyles.