Do we need a closer?

[Just Regular]

We'll probably know the outcome soon, but what's made Correa a fun windmill for me isn't whether the Angeloses can pay ~$300 million over a long period of time, it's whether Mike Elias would recommend to ownership he's a judicious use of that kind of money (and Nate Eovaldi + Michael Conforto + saving some for later isn't).

Even if the Club stays in the family, my belief is by Jackson Holliday's walk year, $$$ will get on the MLB field to approximately the scale Manny Machado's teams enjoyed.    I'd guess it is >50% to include Adley leaving at some point just like Wieters did.

Agree any Owner to be named later brightens the outlook for the peak Adley teams to be even stronger.

[Redskins Rick]

10 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

He has done a great job of building from the bottom. Admittedly, having the draft picks we had made it easier and having zero pressure helps as well. Now, can he handle a competitive team with real expectations from the fans? 

I believe having Hyde managing the new guys well, and keeping the guys to play well, helps a ton.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

He has done a great job of building from the bottom. Admittedly, having the draft picks we had made it easier and having zero pressure helps as well. Now, can he handle a competitive team with real expectations from the fans? 

I'm out of the local loop.  Is there an environment up there with expectations?  Down here I don't think the Rays are under much pressure from the fanbase who mostly care about the Bucs and Lightning. 

[interloper]

I haven't lost faith in Elias as a GM. I think the path of least resistance when thinking about all this is he didn't have the budget to close the deals. It's just really hard to know, as usual, what's really going on. 

I have become approx. 1,000% more skeptical of John Angelos and the current ownership group. To John's credit, he seems to have had the brains to let Elias rebuild and repair the organization as he sees fit. I would say the budget for the bones of the organization is a lot bigger than it was (bigger analytics dept, bigger international scouting with DR facility, a 3-headed GM team of Elias/Sig/Eve, new positions added almost everywhere, etc.), but the budget is clearly almost non-existent for the roster. To me, that does suggest John wants to franchise to be modernized and attractive, but also extremely lean, for reasons others have theorized about. 

I also think the market is SO much more competitive than years past, with more teams willing to spend (Rangers, Phillies, Padres, etc) than just the usual suspects. Perhaps players and agents ALMOST are buying into the Orioles, but choose to play it safe and sign elsewhere. Or maybe we just don't have the cash. 

The second half of the off-season will be interesting - if we go into ST with largely what we have now, Elias is going to have to choose his words very carefully in answering why that is. Not an enviable position, especially when it's so hard to get John Angelos on the record these days unless it's about concerts. 

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Seriously?

The scenario would have included him being given those payroll numbers before the 13th of December.

Even you are better than that.

Yea seriously because those aren’t smart contracts. They are overpaying guys for declining years just because they have a big name.

He came from an organization that doesn’t do that. The Astros are reportedly trying to get Varsho. They didn’t go after Judge, they didn’t go 5 years for Contreras, they aren’t in on Rodón, despite losing Verlander.  They didn’t keep Correa.
 

It’s just not what they do. Maybe they will at some point but what they do works and I don’t think they will change things and I think Elias knows it, sees it and lived it and feels that’s not the best way to build a team.

Now, do I think they would he would be willing to get an Eovaldi or Bassitt if ownership was ok with the money?  Yes I do but that’s different than what we are discussing here.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Sports Guy

[eddie83]

My question is if Elias only gets a modest return in production from a FA SP, will ownership allow him to go after another one next year or year after? 
 

Considering how cheap the payroll is they should but will they?

[Ripken]

He came with a history of growing a good farm system, incorporating analytics, and otherwise improving an organization internally.  He's done well there.  What we haven't seen is whether he's capable of adding real major league talent through trade or FA.  Until he does that, it's fair to question if he can.  There is plenty of off season left, and his ownership group sucks, so he does have time and benefit of the doubt on his side.  Still, no matter how you interpret what he said, or exactly how he meant it, there were real expectations about improving the team this season and so far he's done absolutely nothing.

[Bahama O's Fan]

50 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm out of the local loop.  Is there an environment up there with expectations?  Down here I don't think the Rays are under much pressure from the fanbase who mostly care about the Bucs and Lightning. 

Oh, I don't live there. I guess I'm just basing it on the fans on here. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Bahama O's Fan said:

Oh, I don't live there. I guess I'm just basing it on the fans on here. 

The folks that go to a site like this are not at all the typical fan.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

No, I don’t mean the pitching kind.  I’m perfectly satisfied with Felix Bautista in that role for the foreseeable future.  

I mean the GM kind.  I’m satisfied that the O’s made bona fide multi-year offers to various FA pitchers, but it seems we can’t close a deal.  I see many posters blaming it on the owners, but it’s also possible that Elias just hadn’t figured out when to pull the trigger on a deal.  

Or, maybe he has correctly concluded that the right deal hasn’t come along yet.  

 

This is unknown area for Elias. As for know, Elias has done many things well so far and has certainly brought the Orioles back to relevancy with a lot of good young talent here and on the horizon.  

It is however completely unknown how good Elias is at reading free agency markets or making prospects for major league impact talent trades in order to make that last step. 

How good are they are evaluating their own talent? I don't know if we know that yet.

Elias has stepped into that next role is GM and we don't know yet whether he can "close" the deals to make this team a legitimate contender in the AL East. 

[Hank Scorpio]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea seriously because those aren’t smart contracts. They are overpaying guys for declining years just because they have a big name.

He came from an organization that doesn’t do that. The Astros are reportedly trying to get Varsho. They didn’t go after Judge, they didn’t go 5 years for Contreras, they aren’t in on Rodón, despite losing Verlander.  They didn’t keep Correa.
 

It’s just not what they do. Maybe they will at some point but what they do works and I don’t think they will change things and I think Elias knows it, sees it and lives it and feels that’s not the best way to build a team.

Now, do I think they would he would be willing to get an Eovaldi or Bassitt if ownership was ok with the money?  Yes I do but that’s different than what we are discussing here.

I think this is 100% accurate. 

It's so easy to get wrapped up in the free agent market as a way to improve the team but Elias has seen it done in other ways prior. I would rather see them give Rutschman a big fat paycheck than Chris Bassitt $21MM AAV. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

The folks that go to a site like this are not at all the typical fan.

Well, I would say that on this site, we had low expectations for the last few years and now the expectations are greater. 

[Going Underground]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm out of the local loop.  Is there an environment up there with expectations?  Down here I don't think the Rays are under much pressure from the fanbase who mostly care about the Bucs and Lightning. 

Most people I  know, care way more about the Ravens. Mostly Raven talk even on the flagship. Slight buzz about the Orioles when Adley came up. See attendance staying about the same ,unless they get off to a quick start.

[btdart20]

I suspect Elias is beholden to his models.  If 'irrational exuberance' or the 'animal spirits' take hold of the FA market, then the model are guardrails that prevent foolishness.

That said, models are based on assumptions and inputs.  It can't predict market changes like $1+ billion of contracts flying off the shelves unless a human adds it as a parameter.

I think the soft payroll tax ceiling isn't a deterrent for the big markets who are keen on winning vs. years past there was some nominal attention to the spirit of the structure.  That's the type of shift that a model can't capture.

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I suspect Elias is beholden to his models.  If 'irrational exuberance' or the 'animal spirits' take hold of the FA market, then the model are guardrails that prevent foolishness.

That said, models are based on assumptions and inputs.  It can't predict market changes like $1+ billion of contracts flying off the shelves unless a human adds it as a parameter.

I think the soft payroll tax ceiling isn't a deterrent for the big markets who are keen on winning vs. years past there was some nominal attention to the spirit of the structure.  That's the type of shift that a model can't capture.

 

It can't?

Isn't that something models should be being used to predict?