Trade for Number 1

[MarCakes21]

I know the merits of this have been discussed many times over, but there was a snippet in Roch's latest piece, and generally we've found Roch to be a good source:

Is a trade for a starting pitcher more likely than a free agent signing?
That type of deal seems like the only way to get a true No. 1 starter.

The Orioles would need to be willing to surrender some prospects or subtract from their projected 26-man roster. The former feels like a more likely scenario.

So three questions:

- Who are the available number 1s: Woodruff, Burnes, Bieber, Alcantra (unlikely), Gallen, Kelly - am I missing any?

- Can we trade for one of these guys without moving our top 3, ie a class headlines by 3 of: Westburg, Hall, Mayo, Cowser, Ortiz, Kjerstad, Basallo, Beavers

- Can we semi-affordably resign any of these guys before FA?

[Aristotelian]

Extending these guys will be just as costly as signing in FA. I would go into any deal with assumption that it would be a rental. 

I think you have a good list although it is possible the list could change as unexpected teams fall out of contention. 

Any true ace probably costs Holliday but might be able to get a 2nd tier guy for Cowser/Westburg level.

Another guy I like.os Brady Singer but he has enough years of control that KC will want to keep him unless they get a wow offer. Lodollo is even more in that category.

 

[Aristotelian]

Also Texas thinks they are a contender but if they fall out Perez would be a good target for a rental 

[MarCakes21]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Extending these guys will be just as costly as signing in FA. I would go into any deal with assumption that it would be a rental. 

I think you have a good list although it is possible the list could change as unexpected teams fall out of contention. 

Any true ace probably costs Holliday but might be able to get a 2nd tier guy for Cowser/Westburg level.

Another guy I like.os Brady Singer but he has enough years of control that KC will want to keep him unless they get a wow offer. Lodollo is even more in that category.

 

Agree, I think Lodolo and Singer teams still think they could compete before they are FAs.  So that goes more to the wow offer.  I also imagine Lodolo's second half prices him way out of contention unless there's a top 3.  He's nearing (not there) Alcantra territory because of time to FA.

[tabletop]

Brewers, Marlins, and Guardians all are trying to make the playoffs so they aren’t going to trade those guys.

[MarCakes21]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Also Texas thinks they are a contender but if they fall out Perez would be a good target for a rental 

I don't think there's enough there with Perez.  I think we have enough in the way of Bradish/Kremer for mid-rotation but need to true TOR.

[terpoh]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Extending these guys will be just as costly as signing in FA. I would go into any deal with assumption that it would be a rental. 

I think you have a good list although it is possible the list could change as unexpected teams fall out of contention. 

Any true ace probably costs Holliday but might be able to get a 2nd tier guy for Cowser/Westburg level.

Another guy I like.os Brady Singer but he has enough years of control that KC will want to keep him unless they get a wow offer. Lodollo is even more in that category.

 

Asking the Reds to trade Lodolo would be like Asking the Orioles to trade Grayson Rodriguez for prospects. Not happening. He is a building block for them.

[MarCakes21]

Just now, terpoh said:

Asking the Reds to trade Lodolo would be like Asking the Orioles to trade Grayson Rodriguez for prospects. Not happening. He is a building block for them.

Probably worse, Lodolo has proven it.

[Ripken]

If they actually want to compete this year, which they haven't shown so far this off season, they'll have to trade for a good arm.  It would only be for the remainder of that guy's current contract though since the suck ownership here only wants to pocket money.  Elias never should have ignored pitching in the draft.

[Sports Guy]

They aren’t going to do this.  

[HakunaSakata]

20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Also Texas thinks they are a contender but if they fall out Perez would be a good target for a rental 

You keep beating the Martin Perez drum, but up until last season he has historically been awful. I'm sure what you see in him and I'm not sure he's even better than Kyle Gibson. He's definitely not #1 or someone I would try to buy high on, which is what you'd have to do after last season. 

[HakunaSakata]

21 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Brewers, Marlins, and Guardians all are trying to make the playoffs so they aren’t going to trade those guys.

The Marlins have already said they're willing to trad a SP. They're so stacked it wouldn't even weaken their rotation. I think they're BY FAR our best fit trade partner wise. All the other possible #1s aren't going be available until mid season when teams start to re-evaluate their chances of making the playoffs. 

[HakunaSakata]

45 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I know the merits of this have been discussed many times over, but there was a snippet in Roch's latest piece, and generally we've found Roch to be a good source:

Is a trade for a starting pitcher more likely than a free agent signing?
That type of deal seems like the only way to get a true No. 1 starter.

The Orioles would need to be willing to surrender some prospects or subtract from their projected 26-man roster. The former feels like a more likely scenario.

So three questions:

- Who are the available number 1s: Woodruff, Burnes, Bieber, Alcantra (unlikely), Gallen, Kelly - am I missing any?

- Can we trade for one of these guys without moving our top 3, ie a class headlines by 3 of: Westburg, Hall, Mayo, Cowser, Ortiz, Kjerstad, Basallo, Beavers

- Can we semi-affordably resign any of these guys before FA?

I don't think any of players you listed are realistic trade targets right now because I think all of those teams think they can contend, and their rotations aren't deep enough to lose a high end guy. I also don't think Kelly is a #1. If we want to make a move now I think we'd have to trade for a "potential" #1 as opposed to a bona-fide guy. So instead of Alcantara, we should be targeting guys like Rogers, Luzardo and E. Cabrera. And I think I'd be ok with trading one of the prospects you mentioned if we could get someone like that in return. A sentiment that sometimes gets lost in this forum when we come up with speculative trades is that you have to give quality to get quality. 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

You keep beating the Martin Perez drum, but up until last season he has historically been awful. I'm sure what you see in him and I'm not sure he's even better than Kyle Gibson. He's definitely not #1 or someone I would try to buy high on, which is what you'd have to do after last season. 

Never understood any of the Perez love.

[HakunaSakata]

13 minutes ago, Ripken said:

If they actually want to compete this year, which they haven't shown so far this off season, they'll have to trade for a good arm.  It would only be for the remainder of that guy's current contract though since the suck ownership here only wants to pocket money.  Elias never should have ignored pitching in the draft.

I guess what I don't understand is why Elias seems unable to adapt his strategy to the situation at hand (i.e., ownership unwilling to spend money). We have plenty of young offensive pieces, why can't we trade one of them for a MLB ready pitching prospect to balance things out? The seems like a very reasonable expectation and an easy way to improve our team for this season without compromising our future. Maybe he will, but if he doesn't make a move like this before the start of the season I'm going to start assuming he's like once of those coaches who has a strategy/game plan and is unable to change/adapt it to better fit the players he has on his team.