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Trade for Number 1


MarCakes21

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3 hours ago, bpilktree said:

Elias has been great at finding guys that haven’t lived up to there hype but have improved here.  I don’t think they will go for a guy that is a number 1 starter now but a guy they think they can make a few changes and that will turn that potential into an ace.   Gerrit Cole was not a number 1 starter type when the Astros traded for him.  He was coming off a 12-12 season era 4.26 Fip of 4.08 Whip 1.28 giving up a hit an inning and striking out less then 1 an inning.  He came to Houston and the found way to dig into that potential he had coming up in minors.  
 
Who are the guys they think have been good major league pitchers but haven’t made that next step to being top of the rotation guys. That is who I think they will look to get in a trade if they get a starter.  That would be guys like Luzardo, Mike Soroko, Michael Kopech, Bradley Singer, Luis Garcia, Cristina Javier, Dustin May.  

I like many of those guys as options. I don’t think Singer is available quite yet, and Garcia, Javier and May are all pieces on very good teams.
 

I could see Luzardo, Kopech and Soroka being options to inquire on. Could we use two of our top 10 to get them or would we need more? Per BTV, Luzardo is worth 27 war, kopech 15 war and Soroka 1.3, though I’m sure he won’t be sold like that. 

 

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5 hours ago, G54377 said:

Perhaps Elias believes in our prospects enough that he thinks mid year or in one more year their value will top out for the TOR trade.

I think in large part this is what is holding off a major trade.  In a year Beavers and Fabian could be dominating in AA, Holliday could have finished putting up a .400 OBP at Aberdeen and had some promising at bats at AA, Westburg and Ortiz could have proven they can in the majors even if in limited at bats.  Hall could be a dominating reliever or even a promising young starter.  I think the farm could be at peak trade value between the trade deadline and spring 2024.  The number of excess prospects/rookie major leaguers could be quite impressive.  I'm sure some of them will fail.  Some of these guys could go from being the 3rd piece in a major trade to the main piece or at least the 2nd piece in a trade for an ace so many of us are talking about.

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5 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think in large part this is what is holding off a major trade.  In a year Beavers and Fabian could be dominating in AA, Holliday could have finished putting up a .400 OBP at Aberdeen and had some promising at bats at AA, Westburg and Ortiz could have proven they can in the majors even if in limited at bats.  Hall could be a dominating reliever or even a promising young starter.  I think the farm could be at peak trade value between the trade deadline and spring 2024.  The number of excess prospects/rookie major leaguers could be quite impressive.  I'm sure some of them will fail.  Some of these guys could go from being the 3rd piece in a major trade to the main piece or at least the 2nd piece in a trade for an ace so many of us are talking about.

Thats my premise too.  Not sure we devalue guys like Ortiz/Westburg/Cowser by keeping them down assuming they still hit.  And flip at the deadline might make them all "closer" to ML ready

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Nathan Ruiz has an article in the Baltimore Sun today about what it would take for the Orioles to trade for a top pitcher. Unfortunately it's behind a pay wall. Can anyone with a subscription fill us in on the highlights? 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-adam-frazier-infield-prospects-starting-pitcher-trade-20221219-z2nc463atfggvfrb4rtsrqsuru-story.html

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2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Nathan Ruiz has an article in the Baltimore Sun today about what it would take for the Orioles to trade for a top pitcher. Unfortunately it's behind a pay wall. Can anyone with a subscription fill us in on the highlights? 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-adam-frazier-infield-prospects-starting-pitcher-trade-20221219-z2nc463atfggvfrb4rtsrqsuru-story.html

Wasnt much in the article of value.  He might have read this thread because he mentioned Woodruff/Burnes/Bieber.

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On 12/18/2022 at 9:12 AM, MarCakes21 said:

I know the merits of this have been discussed many times over, but there was a snippet in Roch's latest piece, and generally we've found Roch to be a good source:

Is a trade for a starting pitcher more likely than a free agent signing?
That type of deal seems like the only way to get a true No. 1 starter.

The Orioles would need to be willing to surrender some prospects or subtract from their projected 26-man roster. The former feels like a more likely scenario.

So three questions:

- Who are the available number 1s: Woodruff, Burnes, Bieber, Alcantra (unlikely), Gallen, Kelly - am I missing any?

- Can we trade for one of these guys without moving our top 3, ie a class headlines by 3 of: Westburg, Hall, Mayo, Cowser, Ortiz, Kjerstad, Basallo, Beavers

- Can we semi-affordably resign any of these guys before FA?

Well if Westburg is limited defensively maybe he’s a guy you move. 

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5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Well if Westburg is limited defensively maybe he’s a guy you move. 

I agree with the Westburg thought, seems like a guy without a home.

I also think Mateo as the ML piece, and slide Gunnar to SS.  I'm likely more in the minority there, but seems like you have a good backup option in Ortiz if Gunnar can't play defense there, and Norby waiting for when Frazier has an OPS south of 600.

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Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins acknowledged the Jays’ surplus today, calling the catching market “exceptionally strong” but also expressing he’d be comfortable carrying all three of his catchers into the 2023 season (Twitter links via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Moreover, Atkins suggested his focus is now shifting to improving the lineup — likely by adding a left-handed bat that could slot somewhere into the outfield mix. With many (but not all) of the top options on the free-agent market already picked over, it stands to reason the Jays could leverage their catching surplus to help address that need.

Would Stowers and a lower level prospect be enough to land Kirk if we agreed to take on a good chunk of Berrios' contract? I know we have Rutschman, but I love Kirk and he has incredible OBP skills. I think he probably profiles more a DH or 1B long term anyway. And even though he was terrible last season, Berrios potentially has #1 upside if he can figure things out again.  Thoughts? 

Alejandro Kirk 2022 Stats (24 yrs old)
470 ABs / 59 Runs / .285 AVG / 63 RBI / .372 OBP

Jose Berrios' Contract - $18.7 M annually through 2028

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  • Posts

    • He’s made 7 at 3B in 37 games.  Not great.  Meanwhile you hope Holliday who’s made 10 errors in 38 games at 2B is up sometime this year.
    • Hays is not a plus LF.  Urias is not a plus 3B.   The biggest difference in defense is probably between Cowser and Kjerstad in LF.    You just talked about pitchers struggling and defense.  If that’s the case you don’t replace Cowser with Kjerstad in LF.
    • Are we talking about Norby at 2B or LF?   He’s not going to be playing everyday at either spot and probably hardly at all at 2B.   I honestly don’t know how he is in LF.  He looked fine the few times I’ve watched Norfolk games and Tony seems to agree.   He was always an “average at best” or “offensive 2B” but no one ever called him a liability there. I don’t ignore the struggles of Holliday.  I also don’t ignore the improvements of Rutschman, Henderson, Westburg after an initial adjustment period.  Cowser seems to still be going through it.  If you want the best team come October you can stick with what you know with Urias and Hays.   I’d rather take my chances with Mayo and Norby. As far as depth, I’ve got Westburg, Mateo, and Norby at 2B with Holliday at Norfolk.   At 3B I got Mayo and Westburg.   In LF I got Cowser, Kjerstad, Norby with Billy Cook at Norfolk.   Are worried about not having three 3B?
    • I think the timing for Kjerstad coming up is understandable.  Cowser has struggled for a pretty long time and doesn’t have the track record of hitting in the past at the major league level like Hays and Mullins.  However they aren’t going to litter the whole lineup with Kjersted, Mayo, and Norby at the same time because they are all below average defensive players.  At least not right now.  You don’t solve a diminished pitching staff hit with injuries by making the defense around them significantly worse.  
    • I don’t care if he can be average. He isn’t now.    The kid has made 10 errors in 45 starts on the dirt. 
    • I’m against him being up if he rides the pine. I’m assuming he plays.     
    • If Norby has a good glove you don’t think his prospect status would be higher? Why aren’t teams clamoring for the kid? You are real down on Hays and you are entitled to your opinion but the guy was a starter in the ASG last year.    Mayo is a bat first player with super upside.    It is June 24 and a long way to go. Who knows about injuries. Why weaken your depth?   The team leads in the AL in runs scored. You talk about the kids ignoring the struggles of Holliday earlier in the year. Santander may be gone next year. Urias could be. I don’t care about next year. Their time will come. 
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