Jump to content

Trade for Number 1


MarCakes21

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Never understood any of the Perez love.

Even with last season's numbers, his career ERA is still 4.5ish with an absolutely atrocious 1.45 WHIP and a pathetic 6.30 K/9. There's absolutely nothing to like about Martin Perez. The Ranger's would be wise to try and trade him after last season, but only a fool would give up anything of consequence for him. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

The Marlins have already said they're willing to trad a SP. They're so stacked it wouldn't even weaken their rotation. I think they're BY FAR our best fit trade partner wise. All the other possible #1s aren't going be available until mid season when teams start to re-evaluate their chances of making the playoffs. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/marlins-wont-trade-sandy-alcantara-open-to-other-offers.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

I know the merits of this have been discussed many times over, but there was a snippet in Roch's latest piece, and generally we've found Roch to be a good source:

Is a trade for a starting pitcher more likely than a free agent signing?
That type of deal seems like the only way to get a true No. 1 starter.

The Orioles would need to be willing to surrender some prospects or subtract from their projected 26-man roster. The former feels like a more likely scenario.

So three questions:

- Who are the available number 1s: Woodruff, Burnes, Bieber, Alcantra (unlikely), Gallen, Kelly - am I missing any?

- Can we trade for one of these guys without moving our top 3, ie a class headlines by 3 of: Westburg, Hall, Mayo, Cowser, Ortiz, Kjerstad, Basallo, Beavers

- Can we semi-affordably resign any of these guys before FA?

First let me respond by saying that I appreciate your attempt to remain optimistic about what has been a pretty disappointing offseason.

I’m not sure this approach makes much sense though from this perspective: If the O’s didn’t want to pay free agent prices for the guys who signed 3/4 year contracts like Bassitt, Walker, Trillin, etc. and didn’t want to pay a short term deal for a Verlander nor a longer term deal for Rondon; why would they be willing to give up that much talent and then have to pay even more for an elite #1 type?

Also, I like some of the names from your list, but some (like the Milwaukee guys) are only signed for the short term. This year is a wash, given they didn’t make the rest of the roster good enough to contend. So we would be left with just a year before they are free agents.

Also, we can probably take Biber off that list, why would Cleveland trade him? They appear to be the best in the Central and are trying to win.

Edited by Bemorewins
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

First let me respond by saying that I appreciate your attempt to remain optimistic about what has been a pretty disappointing offseason.

I’m not sure this approach makes much sense though from this perspective: If the O’s didn’t want to pay free agent prices for the guys who signed 3/4 year contracts like Bassitt, Walker, Trillin, etc. and didn’t want to pay a short term deal for a Verlander nor a longer term deal for Rondon; why would they be willing to give up that much talent and then have to pay even more for an elite #1 type?

Also, I like some of the names from your list, but some (like the Milwaukee guys) are only signed for the short term. This year is a wash, given they didn’t make the rest of the roster good enough to contend. So we would be left with just a year before they are free agents.

Also, we can probably take Biber off that list, why would Cleveland trade him? They appear to be the best in the Central and are trying to win.

I don't think we will either.  But that's what Roch said, and unfortunately he's the only one with any info.

Agree on the years, we should be looking out towards 2024 pieces, ie swap your TOR prospect for a Cowser but those swaps are rare.  I think Cowser could/would be a top prospect in many orgs as a Top 100 guy.

Finally, as for Bieber, I think they're looking to move on and next man up, in a similar trade a year or two before FA:

https://calltothepen.com/2022/10/26/bieber-trade-might-be-in-the-cards-for-guardians/

It's been done with Kluber, Clevinger and Carassco.  I don't think this would be an amazing deal for us, but it's an option.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I don't think we will either.  But that's what Roch said, and unfortunately he's the only one with any info.

Agree on the years, we should be looking out towards 2024 pieces, ie swap your TOR prospect for a Cowser but those swaps are rare.  I think Cowser could/would be a top prospect in many orgs as a Top 100 guy.

Finally, as for Bieber, I think they're looking to move on and next man up, in a similar trade a year or two before FA:

https://calltothepen.com/2022/10/26/bieber-trade-might-be-in-the-cards-for-guardians/

It's been done with Kluber, Clevinger and Carassco.  I don't think this would be an amazing deal for us, but it's an option.

Unfortunately Roch is a glorified team hype guy masquerading as a reporter. If the Orioles were a cigarette company and told Roch that smoking didn't cause cancer that's exactly what he'd report. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Unfortunately Roch is a glorified team hype guy masquerading as a reporter. If the Orioles were a cigarette company and told Roch that smoking didn't cause cancer that's exactly what he'd report. 

Not disagreeing, but he's also been right before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I don't think we will either.  But that's what Roch said, and unfortunately he's the only one with any info.

Agree on the years, we should be looking out towards 2024 pieces, ie swap your TOR prospect for a Cowser but those swaps are rare.  I think Cowser could/would be a top prospect in many orgs as a Top 100 guy.

Finally, as for Bieber, I think they're looking to move on and next man up, in a similar trade a year or two before FA:

https://calltothepen.com/2022/10/26/bieber-trade-might-be-in-the-cards-for-guardians/

It's been done with Kluber, Clevinger and Carassco.  I don't think this would be an amazing deal for us, but it's an option.

You make good points. But did you see where the article suggested that Bieber’s starting point in negotiations would be 5/115? Do you think the O’s would be willing to pay probably around the 6/160 that Rodon got?

Also, if we were hunting for a TOR piece we would have to give up much more than Cowser.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You make good points. But did you see where the article suggested that Bieber’s starting point in negotiations would be 5/115? Do you think the O’s would be willing to pay probably around the 6/160 that Rodon got?

Also, if we were hunting for a TOR piece we would have to give up much more than Cowser.

I think if it was "only" 5/$115 of a known commodity, than yes. Or my orange colored glasses say yes.  

Also, I'm not saying TOR, I'm saying future TOR potential, ie trade Cowser for an equivalent top 100 prospect with an arm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Also Texas thinks they are a contender but if they fall out Perez would be a good target for a rental 

Texas is still kind of missing an outfielder - I have wondered about something like Austin Hays - Dane Dunning, both of whom the BTV algorithm sees as ~$20mm surplus value players for their remaining years of Club control.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not the be all, end all, but the BTV algorithm as an open source guesses BAL bats and MIA arms like:

Adley = Alcantara

Gunnar = Eury Perez

Mullins = Pablo Lopez or Trevor Rogers

Cowser = Luzardo

Mountcastle = Meyer

Kim Ng needs to consider Sandy Alcantara's buy-in the same as Elias does Adley Rutschman's.    In both cases, its the 9-figure negotiation that will say much about whether either fanbase will end up with another Mussina like scenario.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I think if it was "only" 5/$115 of a known commodity, than yes. Or my orange colored glasses say yes.  

Also, I'm not saying TOR, I'm saying future TOR potential, ie trade Cowser for an equivalent top 100 prospect with an arm.

So potential for potential? I’m not sure that really does much for us for the 2023 season. But I actually like it. At this point given our lack of roster improvement and given the improvements of our competition for the playoffs, there’s really no need to make a dumb move out of desperation for next year. I’m my opinion the ship has sailed for next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Posts

    • When’s the last time Urias played 2B?  We have Mateo and Westburg for 2B.    Mayo’s no lock.  Urias is a lock.  To be a .700 OPS guy give or take.  Mayo might be worse.  Might be the same.  Might be better.  Urias won’t be better.  You’re living in the past.  Urias was a plus 3B in 2022.  No matter how many times Kevin Brown calls him a gold glover he’s average at best.  At 3B, from  6 OAA in 2022, -7 in 2023, and a -2 so far this year.  And he’s so slow on the bases.  He’s not terrible by any means so hopefully we can get something.  Someone has to go for the future and the future is now.      Austin Hays is becoming a liability in LF.  He’s a -4 DRS and a -2 OAA.   Once you see Cowser out there and then compare it to Hays it’s like night and day.    He had 3 homers. 2 in one game and another when we were already winning by 20 runs.   He got some pinch hits.  Great.  He’s no threat in the lineup, brings minimal power, no speed, and below average defense.  Let’s get Norby up to play some LF/2B/DH. The time is now for Mayo and Norby.  The time has passed for Urias and Hays.  
    • We had the same formula in 2014 and only a white hot Royals team ruined that. This year we have to out homer the other team.
    • Love seeing all this new blood entering the list at 40 and above! Especially the newest .400 hitter on my (otherwise uninformed) radar, SS Elvin Garcia of DSL Black, age 17.
    • I get that. I just think the Orioles need a spark...and Coby Mayo is an option...as was Kjerstad...The Orioles need a more menacing lineup at the bottom of the order.
    • I think it’s your last point.    That said if I was a media member I would be asking Hyde about it. 
    • He isn’t up because of his defense.  The people running this team value defense.  That is why they are running this team and not the posters here at the Hangout.  He will get his chance eventually.
    • I understand fielding % is a small part of defensive evaluation but Mayo has a .931 FLD % at 3rd and has made 3 errors in 9 games at 1B.    Let’s bring him up in a pennant race and release a proven commodity with the glove so the team leading the AL in runs can get better. Let’s assume he magically improves at a higher level with the glove while also hitting the best arms on the planet. 
  • Popular Contributors

  • Popular Now

×
×
  • Create New...