Trade for Number 1

[HakunaSakata]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Never understood any of the Perez love.

Even with last season's numbers, his career ERA is still 4.5ish with an absolutely atrocious 1.45 WHIP and a pathetic 6.30 K/9. There's absolutely nothing to like about Martin Perez. The Ranger's would be wise to try and trade him after last season, but only a fool would give up anything of consequence for him. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

Who are the available number 1s: Woodruff, Burnes, Bieber, Alcantra (unlikely), Gallen, Kelly

None of these guys are available.

[tabletop]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

The Marlins have already said they're willing to trad a SP. They're so stacked it wouldn't even weaken their rotation. I think they're BY FAR our best fit trade partner wise. All the other possible #1s aren't going be available until mid season when teams start to re-evaluate their chances of making the playoffs. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/marlins-wont-trade-sandy-alcantara-open-to-other-offers.html

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

I know the merits of this have been discussed many times over, but there was a snippet in Roch's latest piece, and generally we've found Roch to be a good source:

Is a trade for a starting pitcher more likely than a free agent signing?
That type of deal seems like the only way to get a true No. 1 starter.

The Orioles would need to be willing to surrender some prospects or subtract from their projected 26-man roster. The former feels like a more likely scenario.

So three questions:

- Who are the available number 1s: Woodruff, Burnes, Bieber, Alcantra (unlikely), Gallen, Kelly - am I missing any?

- Can we trade for one of these guys without moving our top 3, ie a class headlines by 3 of: Westburg, Hall, Mayo, Cowser, Ortiz, Kjerstad, Basallo, Beavers

- Can we semi-affordably resign any of these guys before FA?

First let me respond by saying that I appreciate your attempt to remain optimistic about what has been a pretty disappointing offseason.

I’m not sure this approach makes much sense though from this perspective: If the O’s didn’t want to pay free agent prices for the guys who signed 3/4 year contracts like Bassitt, Walker, Trillin, etc. and didn’t want to pay a short term deal for a Verlander nor a longer term deal for Rondon; why would they be willing to give up that much talent and then have to pay even more for an elite #1 type?

Also, I like some of the names from your list, but some (like the Milwaukee guys) are only signed for the short term. This year is a wash, given they didn’t make the rest of the roster good enough to contend. So we would be left with just a year before they are free agents.

Also, we can probably take Biber off that list, why would Cleveland trade him? They appear to be the best in the Central and are trying to win.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Bemorewins

[MarCakes21]

37 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

First let me respond by saying that I appreciate your attempt to remain optimistic about what has been a pretty disappointing offseason.

I’m not sure this approach makes much sense though from this perspective: If the O’s didn’t want to pay free agent prices for the guys who signed 3/4 year contracts like Bassitt, Walker, Trillin, etc. and didn’t want to pay a short term deal for a Verlander nor a longer term deal for Rondon; why would they be willing to give up that much talent and then have to pay even more for an elite #1 type?

Also, I like some of the names from your list, but some (like the Milwaukee guys) are only signed for the short term. This year is a wash, given they didn’t make the rest of the roster good enough to contend. So we would be left with just a year before they are free agents.

Also, we can probably take Biber off that list, why would Cleveland trade him? They appear to be the best in the Central and are trying to win.

I don't think we will either.  But that's what Roch said, and unfortunately he's the only one with any info.

Agree on the years, we should be looking out towards 2024 pieces, ie swap your TOR prospect for a Cowser but those swaps are rare.  I think Cowser could/would be a top prospect in many orgs as a Top 100 guy.

Finally, as for Bieber, I think they're looking to move on and next man up, in a similar trade a year or two before FA:

https://calltothepen.com/2022/10/26/bieber-trade-might-be-in-the-cards-for-guardians/

It's been done with Kluber, Clevinger and Carassco.  I don't think this would be an amazing deal for us, but it's an option.

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I don't think we will either.  But that's what Roch said, and unfortunately he's the only one with any info.

Agree on the years, we should be looking out towards 2024 pieces, ie swap your TOR prospect for a Cowser but those swaps are rare.  I think Cowser could/would be a top prospect in many orgs as a Top 100 guy.

Finally, as for Bieber, I think they're looking to move on and next man up, in a similar trade a year or two before FA:

https://calltothepen.com/2022/10/26/bieber-trade-might-be-in-the-cards-for-guardians/

It's been done with Kluber, Clevinger and Carassco.  I don't think this would be an amazing deal for us, but it's an option.

Unfortunately Roch is a glorified team hype guy masquerading as a reporter. If the Orioles were a cigarette company and told Roch that smoking didn't cause cancer that's exactly what he'd report. 

[MarCakes21]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Unfortunately Roch is a glorified team hype guy masquerading as a reporter. If the Orioles were a cigarette company and told Roch that smoking didn't cause cancer that's exactly what he'd report. 

Not disagreeing, but he's also been right before.

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I don't think we will either.  But that's what Roch said, and unfortunately he's the only one with any info.

Agree on the years, we should be looking out towards 2024 pieces, ie swap your TOR prospect for a Cowser but those swaps are rare.  I think Cowser could/would be a top prospect in many orgs as a Top 100 guy.

Finally, as for Bieber, I think they're looking to move on and next man up, in a similar trade a year or two before FA:

https://calltothepen.com/2022/10/26/bieber-trade-might-be-in-the-cards-for-guardians/

It's been done with Kluber, Clevinger and Carassco.  I don't think this would be an amazing deal for us, but it's an option.

You make good points. But did you see where the article suggested that Bieber’s starting point in negotiations would be 5/115? Do you think the O’s would be willing to pay probably around the 6/160 that Rodon got?

Also, if we were hunting for a TOR piece we would have to give up much more than Cowser.

[MarCakes21]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You make good points. But did you see where the article suggested that Bieber’s starting point in negotiations would be 5/115? Do you think the O’s would be willing to pay probably around the 6/160 that Rodon got?

Also, if we were hunting for a TOR piece we would have to give up much more than Cowser.

I think if it was "only" 5/$115 of a known commodity, than yes. Or my orange colored glasses say yes.  

Also, I'm not saying TOR, I'm saying future TOR potential, ie trade Cowser for an equivalent top 100 prospect with an arm.

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Also Texas thinks they are a contender but if they fall out Perez would be a good target for a rental 

Texas is still kind of missing an outfielder - I have wondered about something like Austin Hays - Dane Dunning, both of whom the BTV algorithm sees as ~$20mm surplus value players for their remaining years of Club control.

[jrobb21613]

Miami is the probably our most ideal trading partner along with everybody else’s. They have a pretty good surplus of young talented pitching. Alcantara is rumored to be untouchable but Lopez and Lozarda are supposedly available and would be upgrades over what we already have. 

[jrobb21613]

I believe I heard Elias last season say that “the goal wasn’t to have the #1 farm system”, which lead me to believe his willing to trade from the farm to better the major league club.

[Just Regular]

Not the be all, end all, but the BTV algorithm as an open source guesses BAL bats and MIA arms like:

Adley = Alcantara

Gunnar = Eury Perez

Mullins = Pablo Lopez or Trevor Rogers

Cowser = Luzardo

Mountcastle = Meyer

Kim Ng needs to consider Sandy Alcantara's buy-in the same as Elias does Adley Rutschman's.    In both cases, its the 9-figure negotiation that will say much about whether either fanbase will end up with another Mussina like scenario.

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I think if it was "only" 5/$115 of a known commodity, than yes. Or my orange colored glasses say yes.  

Also, I'm not saying TOR, I'm saying future TOR potential, ie trade Cowser for an equivalent top 100 prospect with an arm.

So potential for potential? I’m not sure that really does much for us for the 2023 season. But I actually like it. At this point given our lack of roster improvement and given the improvements of our competition for the playoffs, there’s really no need to make a dumb move out of desperation for next year. I’m my opinion the ship has sailed for next year.

[Can_of_corn]

47 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

I believe I heard Elias last season say that “the goal wasn’t to have the #1 farm system”, which lead me to believe his willing to trade from the farm to better the major league club.

I think having the #1 farm system was at the very least one of his goals.