Poll: Do you like the Adam Frazier signing?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Jagwar said:

Like I said... both options entail risk. I would bet there are plenty of examples of rookies who had solid statistics and glowing scouting reports getting promoted, falling flat, and  going back to AAA to work on things to be more ready for the next call up. 

Another thought exercise... Which has more credibility... Frazier's 2022 season or Ortiz's 3 hot months in 2022? 

Frazier being poor is more credible because of the stats and advanced metrics.

 

[Jagwar]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

 

Ortiz/Westburg are on the upswing of their career.  Yeah, there's some amount of hope involved, this is true.  Frazier has probably already peaked.  

If it were me, I'd ride with Oritz/Westburg and 8 million in my pocket or spent elsewhere in a real area of need.

I'm actually right there with you. I'd love to see what they can do. But that entails a good amount of hope/risk, just as the Frazier signing does. 

[eddie83]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Huh?  
 

You don’t know why people would mention the usage of Odor as a reason they don’t like this move?  You can’t figure that out?

You are a piece of work. No I can’t figure out foolish arguments. 

[Jammer7]

This argument comes down to people who are sure that players cannot statistically improve vs. those who believe mechanically adjustments can help a player produce more than they have recently. Some believe that EV’s and other data/metrics cannot be improved somewhat by adjusting the approach and mechanics. Some do. The Orioles must think so. I’m not talking about huge improvements, though. Reconnecting the lower half can certainly add more power to his swing. Being more selective of what pitches he swings at will help as well. 

No one that I have read on this topic has written that his numbers were good since he left Pitt in 2021. We all agree. It was a sudden drop. Why? Is it fixable? After listening to Frazier speak in a few interviews, he thinks it is. The Orioles must also. They bet $8 million on him and their coaches.

If this was a RH pull hitter, looking for a bounce back year, it would be a strange move. Frazier’s profile is interesting to me. I’m not expecting a career year out of him. Maybe somewhere between his average and his best years would be great. Or, maybe he plays his way into a bench role by June and gets beaten out by Ortiz, Norby or Westburg. I’m willing to see it play out. 

[Jagwar]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Frazier being poor is more credible because of the stats and advanced metrics.

 

You may be right, but I'm personally not so sure that either notion is a slam dunk. I guess we'll see in the Spring. 

[forphase1]

14 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

I don't understand why a 2.4 WAR/yr player with 12.4 career WAR is being discussed as if he's Brandon Fahey. I understand the frustrations over whether he's the best use of 8M, but he is a good player and it's silly to pretend otherwise.

Because all that value was obtained 18+ months ago, and for the past 1.5 years he's not been the same player?  Sure, if we were getting the young Frazier opinions may be different.  But over the past 156 games he has a .612 OPS with the 57 games before that being .662.  To say he's a good player NOW is a silly thing to say.  Could he turn it around?  Possible, but very unlikely.  It's almost always easier to give birth than to raise the dead.  

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, Jammer7 said:

This argument comes down to people who are sure that players cannot statistically improve vs. those who believe mechanically adjustments can help a player produce more than they have recently. Some believe that EV’s and other data/metrics cannot be improved somewhat by adjusting the approach and mechanics. Some do. The Orioles must think so. I’m not talking about huge improvements, though. Reconnecting the lower half can certainly add more power to his swing. Being more selective of what pitches he swings at will help as well. 

No one that I have read on this topic has written that his numbers were good since he left Pitt in 2021. We all agree. It was a sudden drop. Why? Is it fixable? After listening to Frazier speak in a few interviews, he thinks it is. The Orioles must also. They bet $8 million on him and their coaches.

If this was a RH pull hitter, looking for a bounce back year, it would be a strange move. Frazier’s profile is interesting to me. I’m not expecting a career year out of him. Maybe somewhere between his average and his best years would be great. Or, maybe he plays his way into a bench role by June and gets beaten out by Ortiz, Norby or Westburg. I’m willing to see it play out. 

And the end of the day if they are wrong it has cost what? 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think it's also fair to say it's possible he reverts to his track record as a MLer.

And I voted no!

But there should be room for that argument. I also think if we trade one infielder, he's not really blocking anyone. I think at the end of the season, we'll look up and someone like Westburg or Vavra will have 200-300 ABs. So I just don't feel like it's worth gnashing any teeth about at this point just yet. 

Listen, it’s absolutely possible he’s a 2ish WAR guy in 2023. I’m not completely dismissing that possibility. I think it’s unlikely but stranger things have happened.  It wouldn’t shock me he had value in 2023.  

Honestly, his performance (good or bad) isn’t at the top of the list for reasons I don’t like the move. If he was coming off a 2.5 WAR season and has solid defense and a 720 OPS, I still would hate the move.

I didn’t want them to sign Turner or Correa either and those guys had very good seasons in 2022.

To me, there are so many reasons to dislike this move that performance is down the list and just part of the conversation.

 

[btdart20]

I voted no.  But it's not a hopeless signing either.

* 2B/Util are not positions of need on this team.  Frazier feels like a hedge against a few moving pieces.  How Urias transitions to 2B?  Can Westburg adjust to MLB pitching?  Same for Ortiz?  How can we get Gunnar some innings at SS (and Mateo off the bench)?  

* Lyles' contract in 2022 was larger than expected.  Elias obviously valued the IPs and we needed to spend our Monopoly Money (and change our LF wall) to get Lyles.  Lyles was Elias' guy last year and worked out well.  Frazier is Elias' guy for 2023. 

* Like IP heading into 2022, I suspect quality ABs is a key trait that Frazier brings (along with LHH) heading into 2023.  Working counts and not striking out adds value to the offense as a whole (like IPs for SPs leverages up the quality BP).

* As Elias' guy, we have to wonder what type of impact Frazier will have on playing opportunity for prospects?  Our list of middle infield options is pretty impressive.  

* Frazier's 2B/OF flexibility could allow Mateo get more pinch running opportunities off the bench.  This would allow our top hitters to start many games and use the strengths of the bench.  A few years back (pre-DH), the Reds used speedster Billy Hamilton as their primary PR.  He frequently had 1-2 SBs and 1 R with 0-1 ABs (depending on double switches).  That's a way to maximize Mateo's offensive value (speed) while minimizing his offensive weakness (not getting on base).  In today's game, if he's the PR, he would be staying in on defense afterwards so we would get a defensive bump late in games as well.

* A related thought is how much Elias trusts handing the keys to prospects in general?  I think it's fairly obvious that he trusted Adley and Gunnar.  Grayson (I think) was in the circle of trust but also in the Adley orbit until the lat strain.  Stowers and Vavra had no confidence even in favorable match ups.  in one sense, it's somewhat reasonable given the number of prospects that wash out.  But in another sense, economic considerations would shift the risk/reward math for smaller market teams to trust prospects more than their larger market peers.  Even if the prospect doesn't check off all of the boxes they are looking for.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Jagwar said:

You asked for tangible evidence, I noted that Elias actually said the O's were competing for a playoff spot. Potato, Potahto. 

Words are not tangible evidence. 

The signings of more mediocre placeholders like Gibson and Frazier, OTOH, are tangible evidence that improving enough to grab one of the 6 available playoff spots is not a major concern in 2023.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

You are a piece of work. No I can’t figure out foolish arguments. 

Then you are purposely lying to yourself. No way you aren’t smart enough to understand that side of things. 

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

And the end of the day if they are wrong it has cost what? 

8M dollars, a wasted roster spot ALL YEAR and taking away of at bats from players who COULD help the team win, both this year and in the future.  That is a real cost, and what is most likely to happen.  We saw it last year, and it appears we are going to repeat it now with Frazier.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

You are a piece of work. No I can’t figure out foolish arguments. 

Odor is a 2B that posted a 79 OPS+ in 2022.

Frazier is a 2B that posted an 80 OPS+ in 2022.

There you go.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

This argument comes down to people who are sure that players cannot statistically improve vs. those who believe mechanically adjustments can help a player produce more than they have recently. Some believe that EV’s and other data/metrics cannot be improved somewhat by adjusting the approach and mechanics. Some do. The Orioles must think so. I’m not talking about huge improvements, though. Reconnecting the lower half can certainly add more power to his swing. Being more selective of what pitches he swings at will help as well. 

No one that I have read on this topic has written that his numbers were good since he left Pitt in 2021. We all agree. It was a sudden drop. Why? Is it fixable? After listening to Frazier speak in a few interviews, he thinks it is. The Orioles must also. They bet $8 million on him and their coaches.

If this was a RH pull hitter, looking for a bounce back year, it would be a strange move. Frazier’s profile is interesting to me. I’m not expecting a career year out of him. Maybe somewhere between his average and his best years would be great. Or, maybe he plays his way into a bench role by June and gets beaten out by Ortiz, Norby or Westburg. I’m willing to see it play out. 

Fangraphs did a piece yesterday on EV for rookies.  You might want to give it a look.

[Aristotelian]

26 minutes ago, interloper said:

I voted no, but I also don't think it's a huge deal. This just feels like a reason to dox whomever feels otherwise and dunk on them, which is kinda lame but god bless ya if you wanna take part in that. I know Tony asked us to not rehash the arguments from the other thread, but did anyone think that was actually going to happen? 

Lol, so true. What is the over/under on number of pages of this thread will now go? Will we see 25?

What is the over/under on posts with new information or arguments?