Connolly on Mullins value

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I like Cedric and think he is a very good player generally (if a bit ill-suited to leadoff duty), but no way do I want any part of him at Nimmo-esque prices into his mid-30s.

[eddie83]

Have not read the story yet but I don’t see how his splits aren’t concerning. 
 

Even if he maintains his glove for awhile he will never get what Nimmo got. His value was his overall offensive game and a big market team wanting to retain their own player. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by eddie83

[emmett16]

43 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

He's going to get expensive very quickly. Estimated ARB1 number is $4.4mm. 

I wish he would get on base a bit more but have come to the conclusion that is just not a big part of his game. It does, however, keep him from being an elite leadoff guy.  I'm afraid that his ARB2 and 3 will be numbers that pay him like an elite Leadoff guy. I am not in favor of an extension as I think he doesn't age well.

Crohn’s disease is no joke.  The poor guy will have to deal with that the rest of his life.  Love the man, but if I’m his employer that makes me nervous.  

[Jammer7]

They likely aren’t “shopping” him, but I bet they are listening closely. Nimmo is the better player, and the sustainable OBP is mainly why. Very proud of Cedric for what he has become. He worked his butt off. Nimmo had kind of a long road too. Ced is a high character guy from all reports. I am not in a hurry to see him go, but I do think it will come before he is a free agent. I do not see an extension unless it is remarkably team friendly. 

I don’t see Cowser in CF. I don’t see the fluidity in his hips or the range. I mean, you can put him there I guess, but Fabian is much much better. He is the CF of our future, IMO. I do not think he is far away either. Maybe June of 2024 or maybe sooner. 

[Owen21]

Here’s a pipe dream…Mullins & Mateo for Logan Webb as stunned fan base tries to heal.

[Aristotelian]

45 minutes ago, interloper said:

Nah not really. I have to think we will figure out another CF solution by the time he hits FA, and I don't think this FO wants any part of a mid-30s Cedric Mullins. 

I also don't think Mullins and his agent will have any interest in an extension now that buys out a couple FA years, for obvious reasons. 

I don't know if Cowser is the answer in CF, but I hope so. I would mark CF depth as an area of concern currently, but there's some time. Would be great to see someone like Haskin separate himself this year. 

I wonder if Joey Ortiz could be fashioned into a CF. I'd love to see him get some AB's this year spelling Mullins vs LHP (Ortiz .980 OPS vs LHP last year). 

[Frobby]

I’m not saying I’d never consider extending Mullins, but I don’t think I’d do it now unless the price was very team friendly.   A lot of his value is tied up in his defense, and it’s unlikely that he will be as good defensively at 31+ as he was at 27-28.   I might still consider an extension though if there were signs that the bat was going to be stable.   

There were two things that bothered me about Mullins last year.  First, I thought he was less patient at the plate.  That’s borne out by him getting fewer walks, and swinging at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone (34.2% vs. 30% in 2021).   Second, he got too uppercutty at times, as evidenced by his 19% IF/FB rate and drastic increase in launch angle from 14.8 to 17.4.   It’s seemed like he was trying to hit homers instead of just driving the ball where it was pitched.   Ironically, that led to fewer homers, not more.  But I’m hopeful he can correct both those flaws.   
 

[maybenxtyr]

28 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I wonder if Joey Ortiz could be fashioned into a CF. I'd love to see him get some AB's this year spelling Mullins vs LHP (Ortiz .980 OPS vs LHP last year). 

I'm not sure why you would want to take a guy with reported gold glove defense at a position like SS and try moving him around...if he can hit at a decent level. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

They likely aren’t “shopping” him, but I bet they are listening closely. Nimmo is the better player, and the sustainable OBP is mainly why. Very proud of Cedric for what he has become. He worked his butt off. Nimmo had kind of a long road too. Ced is a high character guy from all reports. I am not in a hurry to see him go, but I do think it will come before he is a free agent. I do not see an extension unless it is remarkably team friendly. 

I don’t see Cowser in CF. I don’t see the fluidity in his hips or the range. I mean, you can put him there I guess, but Fabian is much much better. He is the CF of our future, IMO. I do not think he is far away either. Maybe June of 2024 or maybe sooner. 

Fabian is one of the guys to really watch. If his offense can stay solid, he could be here very quickly. He is quietly one of the most interesting guys to watch for in 2023.

[Aristotelian]

22 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm not sure why you would want to take a guy with reported gold glove defense at a position like SS and try moving him around...if he can hit at a decent level. 

Just thinking out loud... But we already have a GG nominated SS, a GG 3B, and two of the top SS/3B prospects in MLB. Plus two organzational top 10 prospects at 2B. We have zero prospects who can play CF, along with a ballpark with a big outfield and pitching staff that needs every OAA they can get. We have seen with Trea Turner that it is possible to shift back and forth and provide value. Someone else suggested the idea of Holliday to CF and that got me thinking of Ortiz. 

[Just Regular]

Mullins, Santander, Mountcastle and Hays have been a low variance group of supporting cast players for me for awhile now.     I don't feel any pressure to buy FA years, and I hope the team isn't either so cheap or bad that they need to repeat Trey Mancini's life experience in the next few seasons.

They've cut their teeth, and can help Adley win.

We'll see how the next year or two goes, but for the three years Adley, Gunnar, Grayson and Holliday will be teammates in 2025-2027, I probably won't care much for the "sustainable pipeline" either.

[theobird]

I think Mateo would make an excellent candidate to move to Cf in the event of a Mullins trade. He’s got all the tools to play there, and a better arm than Mullins. I like Mateo, and i think his bat will play better going forward. but I also want him out of the way of our IF prospects.

If Mullins would bring us back #2 or #3 starter, I’d look to move Mateo to CF and give ortiz a long look at SS.

[maybenxtyr]

43 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Just thinking out loud... But we already have a GG nominated SS, a GG 3B, and two of the top SS/3B prospects in MLB. Plus two organzational top 10 prospects at 2B. We have zero prospects who can play CF, along with a ballpark with a big outfield and pitching staff that needs every OAA they can get. We have seen with Trea Turner that it is possible to shift back and forth and provide value. Someone else suggested the idea of Holliday to CF and that got me thinking of Ortiz. 

You may be right then. I'd really like to see him at SS at some point soon, but if a move would help get the wheels turning on getting some of the prospects in Baltimore then I'm all for it.

[HakunaSakata]

59 minutes ago, theobird said:

I think Mateo would make an excellent candidate to move to Cf in the event of a Mullins trade. He’s got all the tools to play there, and a better arm than Mullins. I like Mateo, and i think his bat will play better going forward. but I also want him out of the way of our IF prospects.

If Mullins would bring us back #2 or #3 starter, I’d look to move Mateo to CF and give ortiz a long look at SS.

Appreciate the out of the box thinking, but I don't think Mateo has that bat to justify playing him in the OF. You need more production from that position unless your lineup is absolutely stacked and even then your CFer better be playing Jackie Bradley level defense. 

[wildcard]

Glad to hear that Connolly thinks the O's are not trying to trade Mullins.  Not this off season any way.  I would not extend Mullins because his speed will diminish as he ages. 

Too early to say who replaces Mullins in center.     Cowser, Beavers, Fabian or others.  Just need to see more.  Right now I would think that Cowser fits better in left field.    Ortiz does not have the foot speed for CF.  Mateo  is on the same arbitration track as Mullins so he is not a candidate to succeed Mullins in center IMO.

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by wildcard