Building a case that the current O’s could be a 90+ win team

[Aristotelian]

I would have a similar list but different order. Adley missed only a month so I don't see much more than incremental change there. Gunnar and Grayson have the most potential to move the needle, followed by the schedule and the upgrades. 

I would add to the list some random players outperforming. Impossible to say who it will be. Maybe Mountcastle or Hays bounce back. You could have some regression in the bullpen and still come out even. 

Of course, I'd rather have our optimistic scenario result in 102 wins with 90 wins being more of a median outcome instead of a reach. A better offseason might have gotten us there. 

[Moose Milligan]

I like the optimism.  

[24fps]

The Orioles are two SP short of a credible contending team.  Injuries happen, regression happens, rehab takes longer than expected, family dysfunction happens... I could go on, but I won't.  I'm an optimist at heart and I love the argument this thread is predicated on, but Elias still has some work to do.  He has resources at hand.  It will be interesting whether he uses them before opening day or at the trade deadline, but my money is on the latter. 

It will be an engaging season regardless, but it's more reasonable to bet on 85 wins IMO.  OTOH 90 wins in 2024 ought to be the starting point.

[yark14]

I think we have a legit shot at 90 wins.  We are better than the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Of course, I agree with the 7 points because I have made all those points.  I have predicted the O's win 92 in 2023.

Difference is, I’m just talking about what could happen if things go right.  I’m not predicting that’s going to happen.  But I hope it does.  It wouldn’t be the strangest thing that ever happened.   

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Difference is, I’m just talking about what could happen if things go right.  I’m not predicting that’s going to happen.  But I hope it does.  It wouldn’t be the strangest thing that ever happened.   

I guess I beat you to it then.

[interloper]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m starting to build the case that the O’s could win 90+ games this year.   It requires a little positive thinking, but nothing too far-fetched, I hope.   Here are the building blocks for the case:

1.  The Adley Effect.   The team was 12 games over .500 (67-55) once Adley arrived.   Just extend that .549 winning percentage to 162 games and it gets you to 89 wins.  If instead you look at the team’s Pythagorean record after Adley arrived, it gets you to 85 wins.

2.  The Gunnar Effect.   It’s not just that Gunnar is a good player, but look where his at bats are likely coming from.  They’re mostly going to be coming from the at bats given last year to Nevin and Odor.   

3.  The Balanced Schedule.   The O’s ended up going 34-42 (.447) against the AL East, 49-37 (.570) against everyone else.  24 fewer games against the AL East should equate to about 3 more wins at those percentages.   

4.  The Marginal Offseason Upgrades.  This one is a bit subjective in that it depends whether you think that Gibson, Frazier and McCann are likely to bounce back from their relatively poor 2022 performances, and by how much.  But personally, I believe that Frazier will outperform 2022 Odor, and McCann will outperform 2022 Chirinos/Bemboom, and that Gibson will hold his own against 2022 Lyles and possibly outperform him.   I think those 3 plus Givens will improve the team by 2-4 wins.  

5. The Experience Factor.  A lot of guys got their first big league experience in 2022.   As a group, those players are likely to be better in 2023 now that they’ve gotten their feet wet.   

6.  Better Roster Construction.  Overall, I think this roster will be better constructed due to the positional flexibility of Gunnar and Frazier.   Lots of ways Hyde can make the pieces fit on a given day.   

7.  The Grayson Effect.  Saved this for the end because it’s risky to count too much on a rookie pitcher.    But he’s an upgrade - potentially, a huge one, but we’ll see about that in year one.  

So, that’s my case that this can be a 90+ win team.   Running counter to this: the likelihood of regression from several of the pitchers, and the likelihood of more injuries than in 2022 on offense.   Those things, if extreme enough, could put the team under .500.   But, as a fan who likes to go into a season with reasons to feel optimistic, I think there are plenty of those reasons going into 2023.

I’d still like to see some further moves to strengthen the team.  



 

Completely reasonable and nicely argued. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, yark14 said:

I think we have a legit shot at 90 wins.  We are better than the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees.  

No.

I mean, maybe.  I don't think it's that particularly clear cut.  The Red Sox can score runs.  The Yankees will be the Yankees are bringing back Judge and adding Rodon.  The Rays were decimated by injuries last year, they can bounce back strong.

I can see a scenario where we're better than those teams, Frobby outlined it well in the opening post.  But I don't think anyone can declare that we're outright better than those teams as it stands here before the season starts.

Edited January 2, 2023 by Moose Milligan

[Explosivo]

What will be really funny is if Hall outperforms Rodriguez on the mound as a starter. Hall has an incredible arm. If he be more consistent with it, look out.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

90 losses seems a lot more realistic than 90 wins right now, but I'd expect the actual result to be somewhere in between, say 78-82 wins. Further roster moves could still change that, of course.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

90 losses seems a lot more realistic than 90 wins right now, but I'd expect the actual result to be somewhere in between, say 78-82 wins. Further roster moves could still change that, of course.

I agree the actual win total should be between 78-82.  But I disagree that 90 losses seems more likely.  It would have to be a catastrophic year for that to happen, there'd have to be injuries to a lot of key players and others would have to perform exceedingly poorly, too.   

I mean, Tampa lost a lot of key guys last year and still managed to win 86 games.  Now I don't believe we're as talented as them, certainly not in the rotation but factoring in the new balanced schedule where we play less against the meat grinder AL East, I don't think losing 90 games is more realistic than 90 wins.

I know you're really down on the offseason thus far and I am, too.  But I think there's a lot of good young talent here and more on the way that'll prevent a 90 loss season...unless there are insurmountable injuries and terrible performances.

 

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I agree the actual win total should be between 78-82.  But I disagree that 90 losses seems more likely.  It would have to be a catastrophic year for that to happen, there'd have to be injuries to a lot of key players and others would have to perform exceedingly poorly, too.   

I mean, Tampa lost a lot of key guys last year and still managed to win 86 games.  Now I don't believe we're as talented as them, certainly not in the rotation but factoring in the new balanced schedule where we play less against the meat grinder AL East, I don't think losing 90 games is more realistic than 90 wins.

I know you're really down on the offseason thus far and I am, too.  But I think there's a lot of good young talent here and more on the way that'll prevent a 90 loss season...unless there are insurmountable injuries and terrible performances.

 

 

It's all about the starting pitching and it's not hard to see a scenario where ours is really bad next year.

Like I said though, I don't think we're likely to see 90 losses or 90 wins.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

No.

I mean, maybe.  I don't think it's that particularly clear cut.  The Red Sox can score runs.  The Yankees will be the Yankees are bringing back Judge and adding Rodon.  The Rays were decimated by injuries last year, they can bounce back strong.

I can see a scenario where we're better than those teams, Frobby outlined it well in the opening post.  But I don't think anyone can declare that we're outright better than those teams as it stands here before the season starts.

We don’t necessarily need to be better than all those teams to win 90+ games, especially with the more balanced schedule.   

[Going Underground]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We don’t necessarily need to be better than all those teams to win 90+ games, especially with the more balanced schedule.   

I know we lost 24 games against the AL East but this year we do play the NL East and West. Last year we played the Central, the weakest NL division. Does this balance out the schedule a little? 

The Orioles schedule for April looks a little easier on paper this year. Orioles play the Red Sox 6 times,A's 4 times,Nats twice and Tigers seven times Do have Yanks,White Sox and Rangers but one of the easier months of the year. 

From the middle of July to the middle of August ,the schedule makers in the dog days of summer decided to see what the Orioles are made of.

After the All-Star break,after playing the Marlins,the Orioles play the Dodgers,Rays,Phillies,Yanks,Blue Jays,Mets,Astros, Mariners and Padres. A nice little stretch.

 

[IPlayGM]

10 hours ago, 24fps said:

The Orioles are two SP short of a credible contending team.  Injuries happen, regression happens, rehab takes longer than expected, family dysfunction happens... I could go on, but I won't.  I'm an optimist at heart and I love the argument this thread is predicated on, but Elias still has some work to do.  He has resources at hand.  It will be interesting whether he uses them before opening day or at the trade deadline, but my money is on the latter. 

It will be an engaging season regardless, but it's more reasonable to bet on 85 wins IMO.  OTOH 90 wins in 2024 ought to be the starting point.

I don’t think starting pitching is the #1 inhibitor of our ceiling. Sure we could have regression, injuries, etc, but we do have decent depth.

For me, the thing that limits our ceiling is our lineup, and more specifically lack of OBP. I just don’t see us scoring enough runs to get to 90+ wins. Too many guys that are low .300 OBP guys, with a few below that. That was what I was truly hoping we could upgrade this off-season, and now the only way I see that happening is if Elias allows rookies to come in early, and they perform really well. That seems like foolish thinking/planning.