FG’s Longenhagen top Os prospect list..Cowser at 12!

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Honestly, if you told me right now that he could put up a 650 OPS in the majors this year I wouldn’t be surprised.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yountro01.shtml

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure..which goes back to what I’m saying.  Btw, lots of HS #1 picks put up HOF level careers, not just above average.

Well, if by “lots,” you mean 4-7.  ARod, Chipper, Griffey and (cough) Baines are in, Mauer, Harper and Correa have a good shot.  

Chipper essentially spent three full, healthy years in the minors, though he did get a cup of coffee (8 PA) at the end of his third year when the MiL season was over.   ARod was in the majors a year after being drafted, Griffey and Harper two years after, the others in their third year.

Examples of 1:1 guys who took more than three years but turned out well: Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton.  Obviously, there were a lot of other things going on with Hamilton.  
 

[emmett16]

25 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yountro01.shtml

Probably could have avoided that .593 OPS in his third year with a little seasoning in the minors  

[Sydnor]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Loves Ortiz; Hates Westburg.  A 40 arm?

I wouldn’t say that Longenhagen hates Westburg. He’s just more skeptical that he’s an above-average regular because he’s not sure what position he plays and he’s not sure whether he can make enough contact. From watching him, I share those concerns.

In contrast, from his grades, he views Ortiz’ defense and hit tool as plus tools that are more likely to carry him. Ortiz’ contact ability and ability to play plus defense give him a higher floor, which I think is reflected in the ranking. I am biased here because I think Ortiz could be great and think he should probably be starting at second or SS if you want to move on from Mateo.

I know you think that Westburg is a legit middle of the order bat who can play multiple positions. I don’t share that opinion (because I’m concerned about whether he will make enough contact and am not as bullish on his defense) and neither does Longenhagen, but you might be correct, and I could be completely wrong about Ortiz. The great thing is that we will get to find out, and I hope that you are right about Westburg and I am right about Ortiz, and they both help lead us to many winning seasons.

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

You have to hand it to Longenhagen, outside of @Tony-OH, he provides the most detailed write ups of the players and gives a strong idea of what he likes and doesn’t like about a prospect.   

As to the Grayson write-up, it’s pretty clear he was relying heavily on how Grayson looked after returning from the lat strain.   I’m not too concerned about that and expect the “real” Grayson to re-emerge this spring.   

He seems more negative on Westburg’s defense than most other evaluators, putting him in the same category as Norby defensively and overall.  I’m reserving judgment on that.  

I got the distinct impression that his write ups on Beaver and Fabian were based on how they’d looked in college.  Beaver in particular has made some swing changes as a pro that weren’t acknowledged in the article.  

Reading the write-ups as a whole, I came away with the impression that there’s a fair number of players with good upside in our system, who he’s rating conservatively until they break out.  Fair enough.  



 

Thanks. As with all evaluators, sometimes we just like a guy more than others. For the most part, I don't have any major issues with what he wrote and he does a thorough job. It's pretty clear he doesn't have access to the information on the Dominican guys that haven't at least played in the FCL, because they would clearly be over some of the generic pitching prospect he has on the last after 20. 

We have similar opinions on almost all of the big names.

[SpOkane]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Probably could have avoided that .593 OPS in his third year with a little seasoning in the minors  

Still managed 1.5 oWAR.

[RZNJ]

One thing underrated on many Oriole prospects is the ability to advance and adapt.  Henderson did it. Stowers did it.   Westburg and Cowser did it.   It’s an important quality and ability to have especially once you reach the big show.  Mayo, for all of his upside, is the one guy who hasn’t shown it, yet.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

One thing underrated on many Oriole prospects is the ability to advance and adapt.  Henderson did it. Stowers did it.   Westburg and Cowser did it.   It’s an important quality and ability to have especially once you reach the big show.  Mayo, for all of his upside, is the one guy who hasn’t shown it, yet.

I think most players that are highly regarded prospects have shown an ability to adapt.  Aside from the rare freak athlete.

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think most players that are highly regarded prospects have shown an ability to adapt.  Aside from the rare freak athlete.

I agree but we also see highly regarded prospects in A and low A become lesser prospects as they advance.  Walk rates get lower.  Strikeout rates get higher.  OPS gets lower with each level and they fall down lists.   Most of our top guys have shown improvement or no degradation while advancing.   

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, SpOkane said:

Still managed 1.5 oWAR.

Freak show!  One of my favorite players all time (mostly due to his commitment to the mustache).  

 

I was just joking about the seasoning (but nevertheless interesting to see his progression the first 6 years).  Man, I wasted like 30 min on his B-Ref page.  What a career.  

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

One thing underrated on many Oriole prospects is the ability to advance and adapt.  Henderson did it. Stowers did it.   Westburg and Cowser did it.   It’s an important quality and ability to have especially once you reach the big show.  Mayo, for all of his upside, is the one guy who hasn’t shown it, yet.

Mayo is the one guy I'd bet on flopping.  Just a pure gut feeling.  The tools are unreal, but I just don't see it.  I hope to god I'm wrong.  

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Mayo is the one guy I'd bet on flopping.  Just a pure gut feeling.  The tools are unreal, but I just don't see it.  I hope to god I'm wrong.  

From Delmarva to Bowie, his walk rate dropped at each level while his strikeout rate rose at each level.  He also looks like a strict pull hitter at this point.  He’s very young and has talent.  I do think this year will tell us if he’s capable of making those adjustments or not.   

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

From Delmarva to Bowie, his walk rate dropped at each level while his strikeout rate rose at each level.  He also looks like a strict pull hitter at this point.  He’s very young and has talent.  I do think this year will tell us if he’s capable of making those adjustments or not.   

I like guys that can see the ball as long as possible.  That gives them a better chance to identify and hit a pitch.  You can measure that   with “trigger to impact” times.  Guys that are quick to get to their power and can wait as long as possible I believe thrive.  This is seen in natural oppo power.  I’ve seen Mayo swing and miss at a lot of seemingly very hittable pitches.  I’ve been slow to get excited but am hoping he is the next Troy Glaus.  

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I like guys that can see the ball as long as possible.  That gives them a better chance to identify and hit a pitch.  You can measure that   with “trigger to impact” times.  Guys that are quick to get to their power and can wait as long as possible I believe thrive.  This is seen in natural oppo power.  I’ve seen Mayo swing and miss at a lot of seemingly very hittable pitches.  I’ve been slow to get excited but am hoping he is the next Troy Glaus.  

Right.  Norby was complimented by one of the coaches as a hitter who thinks about taking the fastball to right center which allows him to wait and identify and adjust to other pitch types.   It sounded like a system wide philosophy.  Easier said than done.

[jabba72]

Kind of a sobering writeup, Longenhagan definitely isnt high on many of our SP prospects, already calling Hall a reliever and Grayson a mid rotation upside. Also suggests Cowser and Kjerstad may be platoon OF's. Also not high on Norby or Westburgs defense. Still, we have strength in numbers so if these guys underperform at least we have some promising prospects behind them.