FG’s Longenhagen top Os prospect list..Cowser at 12!

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Thoughts on Juan Núñez? @Tony-OH

Haven't heard of him, they've got him pretty high. 

Did you look at Tony’s list?

“44. Juan Nunez – RHP (FCL/A): Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, brings a fastball that sits 94-96, but can touch 98 on occasion. His best offspeed pitch is his slider, though he also has a curveball and change. Has a long way to go command wise, but when he’s on, he has a starter’s repertoire.”

 

 

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Interesting! Didn't even remember him being part of the trade. Man, our system is deep...interesting guys even at 44 on your list, pretty cool to see! 

I'm surprised he's as high as he was. They must've seen his September 6th start in Delmarva when he had his slider working for the most part. To me though, there's effort in the delivery, he was 21 years old last year, and is a 5-11 right-hander. That all screams reliever to me so I like him where I have him on the list. 

[btdart20]

On 2/4/2023 at 1:24 PM, emmett16 said:

I haven’t had a chance to see Cowser play in person yet.  I agree Mayos talent is off the charts.  Size, arm Strength and raw power at his age  put him on a very elite bracket.  I’m pulling for him to put it all together.  He just makes me a little nervous to get too excited.  I’ll happily eat crow if he mashes and will be right there rooting for him.  

Mayo gives me a Thome vibe.  But that could primarily be about his size.  Dude is a Hoss! 

As much as I'd like him to stick at 3B, it's not a stretch to think his opportunity with the O's will be limited with some combo of Gunnar/Ortiz/Jackson/Westburg likely being fixtures on defense on the left side.  I'd like to see him get more in game reps in RF and some development time at 1B (if not game time).  At that point, it's primarily about the bat.

There's little doubt in the power.  And he's put up solid/plus numbers at advanced levels being young.  Hopefully he adjusts to AA and mirrors his 20ish% K% and 10ish% BB% rates from A and A+.  If he can do that, then I suspect everything else will be just fine!  And this quote gives a ton of hope:

He has no underlying swing-and-miss issues and his massive 6-foot-5 frame still has room for more strength. 

[Can_of_corn]

HoF comp?  Heh 

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

HoF comp?  Heh 

I know Mayo is considered young to have reached AA, but Thome had already reached the majors by Mayo’s are.  

[Frobby]

I looked at Longenhagen’s 2022 list to see who had been upgraded or downgraded.

Upgraded: Henderson from 50 to 65, Mayo 50/55, Ortiz 40/50, Kjerstad 45/45+, Norby 40+/45.  Also the following who weren’t graded at 35+ or better in 2022 were rated this year: Basallo 40+, Benscome 40+, Denoyer 40, Armbruester 40, Moore 35+.

Downgraded: Rodriguez 65/55, Hall 55/50, Cowser 50/45, Prieto 40+/40, Rom 40+/40, Trimble 40+/40, Pinto 40/35+.  Several players ranked 40 last year dropped off the list entirely: M. Hernandez, Deson, Servideo, Williams, Watson, Grenier (is he still in our org?).   35+ guys from 2022 who dropped off: McSweeney, Burch, Gilles, Smith, Uvila, Feliz.  

Holding serve: Westburg 45, Arias 40+, Brnovich 40, Baumler 40, Haskin 40, Rhodes 35+, Young 35+, C. Tavera 35+.   
 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Frobby

[LookinUp]

17 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Mayo gives me a Thome vibe.  But that could primarily be about his size.  Dude is a Hoss! 

As much as I'd like him to stick at 3B, it's not a stretch to think his opportunity with the O's will be limited with some combo of Gunnar/Ortiz/Jackson/Westburg likely being fixtures on defense on the left side.  I'd like to see him get more in game reps in RF and some development time at 1B (if not game time).  At that point, it's primarily about the bat.

There's little doubt in the power.  And he's put up solid/plus numbers at advanced levels being young.  Hopefully he adjusts to AA and mirrors his 20ish% K% and 10ish% BB% rates from A and A+.  If he can do that, then I suspect everything else will be just fine!  And this quote gives a ton of hope:

He has no underlying swing-and-miss issues and his massive 6-foot-5 frame still has room for more strength. 

From a power perspective, I'd kind of agree. It does seem like Mayo's the better athlete with a better arm. And Thome was known for hitting oppo HRs. We'd all be thrilled if Mayo could develop that up the middle power approach. 

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

From a power perspective, I'd kind of agree. It does seem like Mayo's the better athlete with a better arm. And Thome was known for hitting oppo HRs. We'd all be thrilled if Mayo could develop that up the middle power approach. 

Thome was also a really patient hitter.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

HoF comp?  Heh 

Less about the stats and talent, more about the feel of the player...  I'm not diving down a bunch of rabbit holes finding a suitable fringy sub-All-Star type player to comp him with.  So I just rolled with what my initial reaction was.  I'm sure you'd never stoop to that type of thing with your standards.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I know Mayo is considered young to have reached AA, but Thome had already reached the majors by Mayo’s are.  

Thome was rushed to majors at 20-years old, but wasn't full-time major leaguer until he was 23 (as a platoon guy). At 24 years old Thome broke out as a full-time guy. It is worth noting that Thome hit much better than Mayo in the Eastern League at 20-years old though Mayo showed much more power.
              AVG OBP  SLG  OPS  HR BB   K   PA
Thome: .337  .426  .469 .896     5  44  58  345
Mayo:   .251  .326  .494 .821   14  27  62  288

That .100 points in OBP is pretty important though as well as the BB-K ratio being so close. We'll want to see those improvements in Mayo this year at Bowie.

[emmett16]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Thome was rushed to majors at 20-years old, but wasn't full-time major leaguer until he was 23 (as a platoon guy). At 24 years old Thome broke out as a full-time guy. It is worth noting that Thome hit much better than Mayo in the Eastern League at 20-years old though Mayo showed much more power.
              AVG OBP  SLG  OPS  HR BB   K   PA
Thome: .337  .426  .469 .896     5  44  58  345
Mayo:   .251  .326  .494 .821   14  27  62  288

That .100 points in OBP is pretty important though as well as the BB-K ratio being so close. We'll want to see those improvements in Mayo this year at Bowie.

I get nervous on the 'full effort' guys, too.  I'm afraid he's going to pull an oblique every time he let's it fly.  But, when he catches it, it's incredible.  

[LookinUp]

These lists all do the best they can, but in doing so they often give the impression that "what they are" = "what they will be." 

My orange colored glasses, which are somewhat more accurate these days than before Elias, is that the O's prospects are more likely to continue developing than prospects in a lot of other orgs. It's no guarantee of course, but that makes me more bullish on Kjerstad, Cowser and Ortiz than a lot of the rankers. In fact, you can add Rodriguez and Hall to that list too, along with a couple of 2nd/3rd tier pitchers.

And that's ok. I'm more likely to be wrong than Tony, Longenhagen, Law, etc.

There are two guys that I'm really excited for but also have big questions about: Mayo and Basallo. I just have less faith in their ability to make contact, which is ironic given Cowser's issues last year.

My point is that I try to remember that these lists are snapshots in time that tend to have a recency bias. I try not to let myself get too caught up in the ranking itself. It's more about what abilities and deficiencies the players have so I know what to look for moving forward.

 

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

These lists all do the best they can, but in doing so they often give the impression that "what they are" = "what they will be." 

My orange colored glasses, which are somewhat more accurate these days than before Elias, is that the O's prospects are more likely to continue developing than prospects in a lot of other orgs. It's no guarantee of course, but that makes me more bullish on Kjerstad, Cowser and Ortiz than a lot of the rankers. In fact, you can add Rodriguez and Hall to that list too, along with a couple of 2nd/3rd tier pitchers.

And that's ok. I'm more likely to be wrong than Tony, Longenhagen, Law, etc.

There are two guys that I'm really excited for but also have big questions about: Mayo and Basallo. I just have less faith in their ability to make contact, which is ironic given Cowser's issues last year.

My point is that I try to remember that these lists are snapshots in time that tend to have a recency bias. I try not to let myself get too caught up in the ranking itself. It's more about what abilities and deficiencies the players have so I know what to look for moving forward.

 

I can appreciate where you're going with this. The last few years have instilled a good amount of confidence in our staff and development plans. 

It's easy to get caught up in the moment and forget that scouting, drafting, and development still has a good deal of hit/miss/injury to it.  And the lower down these lists we go, the greater the odds of missing.  Plus, the difference between someone ranked, say, 80th and someone ranked 130th isn't very big (as Tony mentioned in his top 30-75 range post).  At least the difference isn't as big as say from the #1 to the #20.

We're in a good position, for sure.  But still have more to prove to be in the top-to-bottom org tier that LAD, HOU, ATL, STL, TB, and CLE are in.

If 2022 was the year of the hitters, here's to hoping 2023 will be the year of the breakout pitchers!  I'm in on Povich and Bright for taking big steps.  And praying Baumler and Brnovich can just be healthy.  

Let's Go!

 

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

If 2022 was the year of the hitters, here's to hoping 2023 will be the year of the breakout pitchers!  I'm in on Povich and Bright for taking big steps.  And praying Baumler and Brnovich can just be healthy.  

 

It's funny you phrased this the way you did. 

I was also thinking of putting guys into tiers.

"The ceiling and talent are great, now it's time to produce"
Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo and Povich (others too of course)

"You were really good last year, so prove it's real and go to the majors"
Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Denoyer, Armbruester

"Not enough eyes on you and/or innings, show us what you got"
Basallo, Bencosme, C. Tavera, Bright

"Niiice, just don't go backwards while you progress forwards"
Holliday, Estrada, B. Tavera 

"It's time to get it together, or that ship might sail"
Rhodes, Trimbel, Servideo

"Can you save it?"
Lowther, Baumann

And as I do this, I realize the tiers need a lot of work. Lol