How much of Bichette Arb 3-year Sum would you offer Mullins?

[Snutchy]

I would not buyout any of his arb years.

I really like him, but he has a chronic health issue that has no cure. I had a family member with the same condition, and it can flare at any time with no rhyme or reason. 

It would be best to take it year by year with him.

I really wish him all the best.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would potentially extend him if I felt I was “stealing”, which I think 3/15 would qualify. I would trade him either way though, which is why I don’t care so much about signing him.

For me, I have felt he should have been dealt by now but as of today, I have zero interest on him being on the team for the 2024 season.

I see your logic, but as Tampa has shown, locking guys up and trading them are not mutually exclusive.  In fact, I’d say few trade pieces are as attractive as a good player locked into a reasonable or better contract.   

3/$18 mm would be about the tipping point for me with Mullins.  I’d go a little higher for a contract that had options on 1-2 FA seasons at reasonable prices.  
 

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I see your logic, but as Tampa has shown, locking guys up and trading them are not mutually exclusive.  In fact, I’d say few trade pieces are as attractive as a good player locked into a reasonable or better contract.   

3/$18 mm would be about the tipping point for me with Mullins.  I’d go a little higher for a contract that had options on 1-2 FA seasons at reasonable prices.  
 

Right which is why I would sign him if I felt I was “stealing”.

I agree that 3/18 is the end point in that.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

 

I think this article answers most of your questions. 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/the-factors-that-helped-bo-bichette-blue-jays-avoid-the-risks-of-an-arbitration-hearing/

Kind of? Seems dumb to me from a risk standpoint. If he misses a year due to injury that all falls on the team and they are out a lot more than they stand to gain.

[Frobby]

Just thought I’d throw out some guidelines for a typical Arb progression for a position player, per Fangraphs.  A typical Arb 1 player earns  1.36 * WAR over the league minimum.  Arb 2 earns 2.13 * WAR over league minimum.  Arb 3 earns 3.59 * WAR over league minimum.

Looking at it a slightly different way, if a player has his average year, his typical raise in his second Arb year will be 56% of the portion of his prior salary that was above league minimum.  In the third year, it will be 69% of the portion of prior salary above league minimum.  

So applying that to Mullins, if he repeated his 2022 campaign the next two years, you’d expect him to be paid something like $6 mm in 2014 and $9.7 mm in 2025.   Obviously his performance and other factors could affect whether it’s more or less, but that’s a ballpark average.  Make it $19.8 mm for the three years combined.   
 

[forphase1]

Nope, no reason to do that deal.   I wouldn't even do a deal that gains us extra years unless the term were very team friendly.   I like Mullins, but I expect him to further regress with the bat,  so I'm not locking him up for big money.