Fangraphs top 100

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Mayo is a guy that likely gets traded so maybe a little work at those positions, but he should be showcased as a 3b to maintain his value.  If he can show viable at other positions while holding down 3B this year in AA that would be a plus.  

Mayo may have the best power in the organization. He’s young and can potentially play three positions.

Zero reason to even consider trading him at this point unless some team values him as the main piece in a trade for a top player. The guy you trade is Mountcastle, not Mayo.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mayo may have the best power in the organization. He’s young and can potentially play three positions.

Zero reason to even consider trading him at this point unless some team values him as the main piece in a trade for a top player. The guy you trade is Mountcastle, not Mayo.

I think Mayo still has a lot to prove.  Yes he has power, but he hit .250 across HiA/AA last year.  Obviously he’s young for his level, but there’s a risk he’s a .220 hitter once he reaches the majors.  I’m not saying that’s what he’ll be, but he needs to show that’s a unlikely outcome.  

[wildcard]

46 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Mayo is a guy that likely gets traded so maybe a little work at those positions, but he should be showcased as a 3b to maintain his value.  If he can show viable at other positions while holding down 3B this year in AA that would be a plus.  

Maybe in about 10 years.   He is 21.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Mayo still has a lot to prove.  Yes he has power, but he hit .250 across HiA/AA last year.  Obviously he’s young for his level, but there’s a risk he’s a .220 hitter once he reaches the majors.  I’m not saying that’s what he’ll be, but he needs to show that’s an unlikely outcome.  

Of course he has a lot to prove. All prospects do.

But he can be a 220 hitter if he has a 350ish OBP and a 550ish slugging.

Although hopefully he’s not a 220 guy. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Maybe in about 10 years.   He is 21.

So if he shows he can play right field another team that needs a right fielder would say, "Well we could trade for Mayo to play RF but he's only 21."?

[LookinUp]

19 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

It begins.

The best part about this top 100 list is that it's pretty much the last one before real baseball is played and we start getting real reports. We're so far from games that these lists are starting to resemble NFL draft speculation/talk in my opinion.

I'm also a huge believer in the offseason and know injuries happen a lot. That means we're about to see real improvements and real disappointments. Lists will change significantly. 

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

Mayo is a guy that likely gets traded ...

Huh. Only for a stud SP, at this point. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course he has a lot to prove. All prospects do.

But he can be a 220 hitter if he has a 350ish OBP and a 550ish slugging.

Although hopefully he’s not a 220 guy. 

It’s extremely tough to be a .550 slugger and a .220 hitter.   That’s a .330 ISO.   Exactly one player did that last year - Aaron Judge.  Next were Yordan Alvarez at .306 and Kyle Schwarber at .286.   Schwarber is probably closest to what you’re talking about - his line was .218/.323/.504.   

No point in going further down that comp path yet, since we are not ready to say that a .220 BA is the likely outcome for Mayo, nor am I ready to say his power is comparable to Schwarber’s, though maybe it will be.   Really, the question is whether he’ll be a better overall hitter than Mountcastle.   
 

[emmett16]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mayo may have the best power in the organization. He’s young and can potentially play three positions.

Zero reason to even consider trading him at this point unless some team values him as the main piece in a trade for a top player. The guy you trade is Mountcastle, not Mayo.

He is also one of the most volatile.  If they are truly in 'win now' mode they will need to make some trades.  I don't think they will trade away players on the MLB roster, but rather a high ceiling player that's in the mid minors (during the season).  You have to give up value to get value.  It's not that I don't like him, he just seems to fit the bill. 

[emmett16]

12 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

 

Huh. Only for a stud SP, at this point. 

Precisely.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He is also one of the most volatile.  If they are truly in 'win now' mode they will need to make some trades.  I don't think they will trade away players on the MLB roster, but rather a high ceiling player that's in the mid minors (during the season).  You have to give up value to get value.  It's not that I don't like him, he just seems to fit the bill. 

The Os have, in theory, OF and MI depth. That’s what you trade out of.

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os have, in theory, OF and MI depth. That’s what you trade out of.

Do you confine yourself to those parameters? Or do you try to maximize value depending on how the market values your players?   If you can get an impact SP with Mayo as a headliner do you do that?  Or do you hold because you'd prefer to trade from your OF/IF depth? 

[wildcard]

I don't see the O's trading anyone right now.   Maybe at the trade deadline they trade Gibson, Frazier and maybe Santander depending  on how the O's young players are progressing.   But its too soon to know that.

[Jagwar]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os have, in theory, OF and MI depth. That’s what you trade out of.

Bingo. They should have done that this offseason. 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Do you confine yourself to those parameters? Or do you try to maximize value depending on how the market values your players?   If you can get an impact SP with Mayo as a headliner do you do that?  Or do you hold because you'd prefer to trade from your OF/IF depth? 

So many factors to determine that. Mayo isn’t untouchable but there are a lot of guys you trade before him unless you are really starting to doubt his game.

Trading out of the depth you have is the first place you should be looking to trade.

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So many factors to determine that. Mayo isn’t untouchable but there are a lot of guys you trade before him unless you are really starting to doubt his game.

Trading out of the depth you have is the first place you should be looking to trade.

I agree.  I’m just thinking like an outside org.  Of course I’d like to trade from depth.  But if I’m looking at the Os top 10, knowing there are a couple untouchables, he’s the first guy that would interest me.