Roster cuts Friday morning?

[Just Regular]

To really tilt at windmills, this is Jackson Holliday's year to show if the hit tool can be whispered in the same breath as Juan Soto or Wander Franco.     He'll get 500 PA, and data will accrue.

Up on the dais with Boras and Elias last summer, Jackson said 2 years.    I figure 2023 is the last September without him in the lineup.     I hope the sky's the limit, but would guess in 2024 that 129 PA are more probable than 629 PA.     

I wholeheartedly agree All Rules are off if a Player simply breaks the talent curve.   The Aberdeen or Delmarva choice will become public in a few weeks.

[NCRaven]

If their bats are the real deal, could one of Ortiz or Holliday take over in CF when Mullins is done?  CF and SS are both premium defensive positions so there’s little loss in value if one moves.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

What in how Elias has treated his best prospects makes you think he's going to start a 20-year old as his opening day SS next year? 

Unless you just saying how you would do it, it is completely unrealistic to think Elias is thinking Holliday will be his opening day SS next year. This is a guy who has a top 100 prospect who plays 2B and went out and signed Frazier to an $8 million contract.

Yes, I realize things are changing in regard to the Orioles being a contender vs when Rutschman was drafted, but he gave Rutschman 780 minor league PAs and he was the #1 draft pick out of college.

Henderson, who was moved as fast as any Elias high school draft pick ever, still got 1087 minor league PAs. 

If Holliday ends this season in AA, that will be a great accomplishment. Elias has shown no indication that he's going to rush a prospect, and considering SS is currently manned between Henderson/Mateo/Ortiz over the next few years, there's no need to rush him through the minors.

I think Elias looks at his prospects as waves of talent to be used as commodities. Sure, Holliday could be special, but it would be unprecedented under Elias if he got less than 1000 minor league PAs before arriving on the major league scene.

I think it's much more likely that Holliday arrives in 2025 as the favorite to be the opening day SS even if he has a great year this year in his first full minor league season.

 

The only player in the system as advanced as Holliday when he came in was Adley and Adley would have been up far sooner if not for COVID. 

Holliday is probably also the only player Elias has treated like this for ST, considering age, experience, etc…he clearly thinks about him differently than any other player he has had at that age and experience level.

Holliday probably won’t start be the starter on OD next year but it’s possible and I do think he’s the starter by the AS break at the latest next year, assuming health and the development we assume he will have.

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The only player in the system as advanced as Holliday when he came in was Adley and Adley would have been up far sooner if not for COVID. 

Holliday is probably also the only player Elias has treated like this for ST, considering age, experience, etc…he clearly thinks about him differently than any other player he has had at that age and experience level.

Holliday probably won’t start be the starter on OD next year but it’s possible and I do think he’s the starter by the AS break at the latest next year, assuming health and the development we assume he will have.

 

It wasn't just Covid.

[wildcard]

At what level will the O's have Holliday start the season to challenge him?

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

At what level will the O's have Holliday start the season to challenge him?

I'd bet good money he's going to be sent to Delmarva to start the year in order to get him off to a good start. That's ELias' M.O.

Also, I think everyone needs to cool the jets a bit over his spring. Henderson has been awful so far this spring, do we think he's going to be a bust now? No. It's a handful of PAs in the early stages of spring training. It's nice that he's doing well, but he'll go back to Delmarva to start the year and if he's up to Aberdeen by May I'd consider that pretty quick. 

 

[seak05]

Even top prospects who move fast tend to spend a couple years in the minors. Franco played at every level but double A (and that was the covid year), including 40 Triple A games and a whole year in the various A balls (after playing rookie league the previous year, granted at 17 because he was an international prospect). Corbin Carroll had 657 ML plate appearances, and that's even with losing a year to covid/practicing at the alternate site, and injury. Michael Harris II had 828 ML plate appearances, and spent an entire year at High A, before being promoted from double A, plus the covid year.

Gunnar was pretty much the youngest player at every level he played at last year. If Holliday plays like we all hope he does, the Orioles will move him just about as fast an any organization out there 

[Sports Guy]

Holliday finally sent down.

Interesting that Ortiz is sent down and Westburg not only stays but has gotten more time than him I believe.

Is that them showcasing Westburg?  Just feeling the need to see him more?

[wildcard]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Holliday finally sent down.

Interesting that Ortiz is sent down and Westburg not only stays but has gotten more time than him I believe.

Is that them showcasing Westburg?  Just feeling the need to see him more?

Westburg has spend more time at AAA.  In that way he is ahead of Ortiz.  I don't think its anything more than that.   Right now there doesn't look like there is room for Westburg in the majors, so its just a matter of time before he goes also.

I don't think its about a trade.

Edited March 15, 2023 by wildcard

[glenn__davis]

Ortiz has been in concussion protocol as well.

[now]

On 3/11/2023 at 8:59 AM, NCRaven said:

If their bats are the real deal, could one of Ortiz or Holliday take over in CF when Mullins is done?  CF and SS are both premium defensive positions so there’s little loss in value if one moves.

Now there's a novel idea!

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Holliday finally sent down.

Interesting that Ortiz is sent down and Westburg not only stays but has gotten more time than him I believe.

Is that them showcasing Westburg?  Just feeling the need to see him more?

Why wouldn’t they see Westburg as ahead of Ortiz?

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Ortiz has been in concussion protocol as well.

 

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Why wouldn’t they see Westburg as ahead of Ortiz?

Ortiz never played again after going on concussion protocol after taking a ball off his face/head during a fielding drill. Hopefully this will not limit him at the beginning of the regular season.

[interloper]

On 3/14/2023 at 8:54 PM, waroriole said:

Why wouldn’t they see Westburg as ahead of Ortiz?

Agree, he's the player with more AAA experience and better overall minor league numbers. There was a chance Ortiz vaulted in front of Westburg with a strong showing this spring or early this season in AAA, but Westburg is first in line for that cup of coffee if you ask me. He's the kind of guy if Urias or Mateo got injured or traded, I think they'd be comfortable putting him on the 26 man roster out of camp. 

[wildcard]

My guess on the next to go.  After todays games.   Mazara and Reed Garrett.

Santander  and Darwinzon Hernandez will be back.