Adley Rutschman 2023

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, I feel it should be pointed out that you are being a dbag, not that it is some big personality change for you.

So downvoting a post I have shown to be factually inaccurate is inappropriate behavior?

Interesting take.

You seem a lot more worried about it than the actual poster.

[Hallas]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Can you show me where I ever diagnosed why his WAR is down?

You have this tendency to try and find all these reasons why something isn’t working or something isn’t there and you do it in a way as if people don’t realize it.

His Iso is almost down by 50 points and his slugging is down by almost 20. His doubles have fallen way off.

The power is, unquestionably, down this year and I’m disappointed by that. I didn’t expect him to be a worse player in 2023.

I do agree that most of the drop is from defense..then again I have never said differently,

 

You keep talking about his power and minimally discussing or ignoring the other components of WAR.  You've mentioned his defense but you've spent the most time discussing the perceived lack of power.  I've addressed his power reduction; his batted ball data suggests he's getting unlucky.  But even if you disregard that, his reduced power accounts for 4.5 less runs created in a pretty similar number of at bats.  Mookie Betts has had  swings of 40 batting runs.  Mike Trout had been one of the most consistent top players in history during his 20s, and he's had swings of 14 runs.  Miguel Cabrera swung over 40 runs as well during his peak years.  Mauer had swings of 25 batting runs, and if you include his 2007 season where he missed the qualified title by 40 PAs it'd be close to 40 runs even if you scale that year out to a full season's worth.  Posey had swings of 35 runs.  It's just insane that you'd harp over a couple missing HRs and a couple missing doubles.  There are enough variables in baseball that drawing conclusions over a few missing HRs and a few missing doubles is entirely a fool's errand.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Hallas

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

I've addressed his power reduction; his batted ball data suggests he's getting unlucky.  But even if you disregard that, his reduced power accounts for 4.5 less runs created in a pretty similar number of at bats.  Mookie Betts has had  swings of 40 batting runs.  Mike Trout had been one of the most consistent top players in history during his 20s, and he's had swings of 14 runs.  Miguel Cabrera swung over 40 runs as well during his peak years.  It's just insane that you'd harp over a couple missing HRs and a couple missing doubles.  There are enough variables in baseball that drawing conclusions over a few missing HRs and a few missing doubles is entirely a fool's errand.

The problem is, those guys still have big power years even in down power years.

There are going to be swings and bad luck, etc..but his slugging is in the 420s. That isn’t good.  He is 86th out of 138 hitters who qualify. If you drop the at bats to 350 (just a random number I picked that at least gives somewhat of a decent sample size), he goes to 114th out of 187.

Basically, that puts him in the bottom 35-40% of MLb.  

Now, it is somewhat encouraging that the xSlug is way up from last year but even that number is good but not great.

His average exit velo numbers are definitely a disappointment and that probably keeps his power down until he improves on those (if he does) but it would still be nice to see him more in the 460ish slugging area.

[Hallas]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The problem is, those guys still have big power years even in down power years.

There are going to be swings and bad luck, etc..but his slugging is in the 420s. That isn’t good.  He is 86th out of 138 hitters who qualify. If you drop the at bats to 350 (just a random number I picked that at least gives somewhat of a decent sample size), he goes to 114th out of 187.

Basically, that puts him in the bottom 35-40% of MLb.  

Now, it is somewhat encouraging that the xSlug is way up from last year but even that number is good but not great.

His average exit velo numbers are definitely a disappointment and that probably keeps his power down until he improves on those (if he does) but it would still be nice to see him more in the 460ish slugging area.

Mookie Betts worst batting runs year is worse than either of Rutschman's years.  Same with Posey.  Same with Mauer if you're counting his 2007.  And I'm only counting peak years here.

 

I think there might be some support that he's maybe trying to hit singles/make contact, because his launch angle is down 3 degrees.  He had a much more pronounced uppercut on his LH swing last year.  I'd probably prefer him trying to hit dongs, considering his new swing plane is only leading to marginally more overall contact.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Hallas

[Frobby]

I am somewhat disappointed with Adley’s season.  My disappointment is greatly ameliorated by the fact that he’s at least the second best position player on a team that may win 100 games.  That part doesn’t disappoint me at all.   

[TopGunnar]

Perfect example of why you don’t believe the hype. Adley never gets hot. He never goes on like a 15-35 6 HR streak. He gets weak singles and sprinkles in some meaningless homers. He doesn’t hit in big spots. He’s far far from being a generational type player. Call me crazy all you want but I think he’s just an average player.

[tntoriole]

Adley swing mechanics just seem really off for quite awhile now .. verry uppercut on both sides, often going to his knees and just not barreling very well .  He needs to be hitting 6-8 for awhile. 

[Tbone83]

At the very least, the leadoff experiment needs to come to an end. I feel like Adley's had more bad at bats in the last week than he normally has in a month. 

[Gurgi]

18 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

Perfect example of why you don’t believe the hype. Adley never gets hot. He never goes on like a 15-35 6 HR streak. He gets weak singles and sprinkles in some meaningless homers. He doesn’t hit in big spots. He’s far far from being a generational type player. Call me crazy all you want but I think he’s just an average player.

He does not seem to be a generational talent like all the hype on him was.   Guy might not even ever hit 23 hr in a season like Wieters at least did.  And Wieters could throw out runners.  In fact he was very good at that.  Adley is not.  

Maybe Basallo will prove to be the one to live up to massive hype.  

[Dunk35]

20 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

Perfect example of why you don’t believe the hype. Adley never gets hot. He never goes on like a 15-35 6 HR streak. He gets weak singles and sprinkles in some meaningless homers. He doesn’t hit in big spots. He’s far far from being a generational type player. Call me crazy all you want but I think he’s just an average player.

He is above average for a catcher. Looking more like Wieters than Posey though. 
 

[Moshagge3]

Total armchair opinion but Adley seems exhausted. He looks like he's swinging a ten pound bat.

[Gurgi]

1 minute ago, Moshagge3 said:

Total armchair opinion but Adley seems exhausted. He looks like he's swinging a ten pound bat.

Yeah he looks beat.  I think we need to stop treating him like he is Johnny Bench and treat him like a dude who needs to play 5 games a week at most.  He probably  should be sitting and not DHing as much as he does.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

10 minutes ago, Tbone83 said:

At the very least, the leadoff experiment needs to come to an end. I feel like Adley's had more bad at bats in the last week than he normally has in a month. 

I'd bat Hicks at cleanup right now or even Gunnar, but I kinda like Gunnar batting 2nd or 3rd in the order better.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

Total armchair opinion but Adley seems exhausted. He looks like he's swinging a ten pound bat.

Agreed it looks like Adley has been dragging recently and he's been making weak contact way too often.

[FlaO'sFan]

Adley should lose 15 (or 20) pounds in the off-season.

Edited September 15, 2023 by FlaO'sFan