Adley Rutschman 2023

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let's also be honest here and Adley having a good August doesn't mean that his usage might not be an issue.

That’s fair enough but someone saying he was looking tired in mid September and seeing him have a hot stretch a week later certainly calls that observation into question.   As far as his usage in April/May vs. July/August and whether DHing is close to a day off we can argue about it until the cows come home.   He hasn’t caught a crazy amount of games and seems to be finishing the season well.   Everyone can draw their own conclusions which is what we do around here.

[RZNJ]

Furthermore, I hope we can all agree that a high percentage of the wear and tear on a catcher come from, you guessed it, CATCHING.   Rutschman has started 102 games at catcher.   For comparison that would have been low for many, if not all, all-star type catchers.  Yadier Molina had seasons of over 130.   
 

I would argue that catching 105 games and DHing 50, is a lot easier on the body than catching 130 and having complete days off the rest of the time.  There’s no way to prove it.  It just makes sense to me.

[RarityFlaherty]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Not much, but some.  I broke down his days off somewhere earlier in this thread.  I’ll see if I can dig it up.  

Edit: From early August:

 

March/April (28 team games): 20 starts at C, 2 finished as a defensive sub.  7 starts at DH.  1 game in which he pinch hit (also subbed on defense).  Started 27/28, pinch hit in the other.

May (28 team games): 19 starts at C, 2 finished as a defensive sub.  6 starts at DH.  2 games in which he pinch hit, one of which he also came in as a defensive sub.   Started 25/28, played 27/28.

June (24 team games): 17 starts at C, 1 finished as a defensive sub.  5 starts at DH.  Started 22/24, played 22/24.

July (26 team games): 17 starts at C.  6 starts at DH.  Came in once as a PH.  23/26 starts, 24/26 played.

August (4 games): 2 starts at C.  2 starts at DH.  4/4 games started.  

 

I wonder what these numbers are for September and the rest of August. I could be wrong, but I feel like he’s been DHing a bit more lately. That could explain why he doesn’t look as worn down and has been better lately. Hopefully they are managing his load for the rest of the season to make sure he’s rested for the playoffs. 

[foxfield]

Adley arriving changed this franchise.  His partial season set expectations that this season hasn't duplicated.  

It is very difficult to say he wasn't overworked through the first half of the season.

Perhaps the workload affected his performance, perhaps some of it sophomore slump, perhaps some of it is the league adjusting to Adley.

His workload has changed some in the second half and he is finishing the season strong.

Perhaps that is from getting rest, perhaps it is merely Adley adjusting back.

I am not disappointed in his season, he is showing he can carry us when needed.  But it is fair to wonder if he can play a full season at the level he showed last year.

Either way, he is a tremendous asset to the Baltimore Orioles.

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, foxfield said:

it is fair to wonder if he can play a full season at the level he showed last year.

 

Depends how you mean this question.  

Offensively, I would certainly say yes.  The difference between last year (.806 OPS, 131 OPS+) and this one (.805 OPS, 125 OPS+) is basically insignificant.  No reason to think, at age 25 and with two years under his belt, that he can’t hit as well or better in the future.   By the way, he’s been a bit unlucky this year: .372 xwOBA, .350 wOBA in 2023, compared to .342 xwOBA, .354 wOBA last year.

Defensively, he’s been stronger in the second half than he was in the first half.   He’s now up to +8 blocks above average; he was at 0 on June 1.   He’s at +5 framing runs; he was at -1 on June 1.   His throwing is at 0 throwing runs; don’t know what that was in June but his CS% is at 21% now vs. 23% in June, so barely down.  So, I feel that whatever defensive decline Adley had from last year, it’s not from wearing down; rather, it’s from not doing as well early in the year and from some problems with his throwing mechanics that IMO have improved a lot in recent weeks.  So, I don’t know if Adley will ever equal his otherworldly defensive numbers from 2022, but if he doesn’t, I don’t think fatigue will be a reason. 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Frobby

[foxfield]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends how you mean this question.  

Offensively, I would certainly say yes.  The difference between last year (.806 OPS, 131 OPS+) and this one (.805 OPS, 125 OPS+) is basically insignificant.  No reason to think, at age 25 and with two years under his belt, that he can’t hit as well or better in the future.   

Defensively, he’s been stronger in the second half than he was in the first half.   He’s now up to +8 blocks above average; he was at 0 on June 1.   He’s at +5 framing runs; he was at -1 on June 1.   His throwing is at 0 throwing runs; don’t know what that was in June but his CS% is at 21% now vs. 23% in June, so barely down.  So, I feel that whatever defensive decline Adley had from last year, it’s not from wearing down; rather, it’s from not doing as well early in the year and from some problems with his throwing mechanics that IMO have improved a lot in recent weeks.  So, I don’t know if Adley will ever equal his otherworldly defensive numbers from 2022, but if he doesn’t, I don’t think fatigue will be a reason. 

 

 

Excellent points.  The counting numbers of doubles and HR are the biggest thing that seems to be getting negative attention.  As you pointed out his defense has improved in the second half.  And yes offensively, his OPS/OPS+ is statistically about the same.

My point is simply I am not disappointed in what we have gotten.  I selected a much higher WAR in our preseason poll.  We have a very good player who has impacted the games differently than I imagined but clearly in a very positive way.

 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Excellent points.  The counting numbers of doubles and HR are the biggest thing that seems to be getting negative attention.  As you pointed out his defense has improved in the second half.  And yes offensively, his OPS/OPS+ is statistically about the same.

My point is simply I am not disappointed in what we have gotten.  I selected a much higher WAR in our preseason poll.  We have a very good player who has impacted the games differently than I imagined but clearly in a very positive way.

 

I said earlier this year that I’m mildly disappointed with Adley’s season, and I will stick with that.  But that’s only because my expectations were extremely high.  His offensive numbers are close to last year, but since last year’s numbers included his initial adjustment period I thought he’d look more like his July-September 2022 numbers than his full season numbers.  And, his defense early in the year wasn’t as good as last year.   

But even when you consider all that, you can’t escape the fact that the team has won 97 games and he’s played a huge role in that on both sides of the ball.  And he’s a deserving all star.  So how disappointed can you really be?
 

[jabba72]

3 hours ago, foxfield said:

Adley arriving changed this franchise.  His partial season set expectations that this season hasn't duplicated.  

It is very difficult to say he wasn't overworked through the first half of the season.

Perhaps the workload affected his performance, perhaps some of it sophomore slump, perhaps some of it is the league adjusting to Adley.

His workload has changed some in the second half and he is finishing the season strong.

Perhaps that is from getting rest, perhaps it is merely Adley adjusting back.

I am not disappointed in his season, he is showing he can carry us when needed.  But it is fair to wonder if he can play a full season at the level he showed last year.

Either way, he is a tremendous asset to the Baltimore Orioles.

Well AR's OBP is .372 this year vs .362 last year so he's improved his OBP 10 points.

Also has raised his OPS to .805 on the years vs .806 in '22. He's been roughly the same player except slightly better OBP. He was probably overused at some point in the year but appears rested at the moment.

Im not sure Adleys' a 120 start per year catcher, because fatigue I believe played a part in his mid-season lull this year. Maybe 105 is a good number for him.  

[jabba72]

I just voted by the way. Polls still open 

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, jabba72 said:

I just voted by the way. Polls still open 

Hope you don't end up disappointed.

[Frobby]

Adley had a really nice finish to the year, batting .292/.412/.510 in Sept./Oct. to finish at .277/.374/.435, 128 OPS+, with 20 homers and 80 RBI, worth 4.3 rWAR, 5.0 fWAR.  He played good defense down the stretch as well.  He should be pretty fresh for the playoffs, as McCann caught 14 of the final 29 games, including 4 of the final 5.