Jud Fabian 2023

[LookinUp]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

His entire AA sample has him batting .161.  Honestly, 110 PA is too big a sample to ever be hitting 116.   And when you’re striking out 40% of the time, it’s not batted ball luck that’s the issue.  

To be clear, I’m still interested in Fabian and by no means am I writing I’m off.   But I’m VERY concerned with how his summer has gone.  
 

That's fair. 

I tend to be rosy about the possibility of developing young players, particularly in the offseason. I also tend to give the benefit of the doubt as it relates to slumps and what a developing player might be working on behind the scenes.

I do agree. There's definitely reason to be wary. I just also think there's a case here for a guy to still be ranked in the 10-15 range in this system.

But maybe that's too rosy too. There's definitely a case for a bunch of people to jump above him.

[Rbiggs2525]

I believe the strikeouts are very concerning but his defense is so advanced they want to challenge the bat. He will probably repeat Bowie next year and tighten some things up.

[LookinUp]

51 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I believe the strikeouts are very concerning but his defense is so advanced they want to challenge the bat. He will probably repeat Bowie next year and tighten some things up.

That's the wager. We're all definitely rooting for him.

[Jim'sKid26]

Is he the Cadyn Grenier of CF?

[TheWall]

7 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is he the Cadyn Grenier of CF?

He has 18 HRs so far this year. Grenier had 23 in 4+ seasons. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, TheWall said:

He has 18 HRs so far this year. Grenier had 23 in 4+ seasons. 

Power was never projected for Grenier.

Wasn't supposed to be part of his game.

 

[TheWall]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Power was never projected for Grenier.

Wasn't supposed to be part of his game.

 

I'm aware. I'm responding to the poster that asked if he is the Cadyn Grenier of CF. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, TheWall said:

I'm aware. I'm responding to the poster that asked if he is the Cadyn Grenier of CF. 

Collage player needing an offensive makeover taken near the top of the draft with the profile of an elite defender with plus speed.

Seems like a fairly apt comparison.

 

[TheWall]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Collage player needing an offensive makeover taken near the top of the draft with the profile of an elite defender with plus speed.

Seems like a fairly apt comparison.

 

I know the rules have changed, but Fabian is already closing in on Grenier's SB total as well. I guess if every glove first guy with hit tool issues is an apt comparison to Grenier than Fabian fits the bill, but they seem like very different players. 

Edited August 10, 2023 by TheWall

[Alasdaire]

Coby Mayo was promoted to Bowie at the end of last year and played 31 games there before the season ended. Jud has now played in 36 games at AA.

During that stretch for Mayo: .738 OPS (.371 BAbip) and a 34.5% strikeout rate.

For Jud: .672 OPS (.192 BAbip) and a 39.5% strikeout rate.

And we all know what Coby did in Bowie this year after having an offseason to grind.

A+ to AA is a huge jump no matter what age a prospect is. This might be the first time Fabian has seen a step-up in competition since he went from high school to the SEC in 2019. And it's in the middle of his first full professional season.

Obviously the strikeout rate brings up bad memories. And it might well end up that this is the ceiling. But there should be a grace period. If someone here has seen how he's being targeted and has concerns based on that, then that would be one thing. But he hasn't yet done anything disqualifying based on production alone.

And the elite talent is still there as reflected by the center field defense, stolen bases, and .243 ISO.

Let's see how he finishes the season.

[CaptainRedbeard]

The combination of power, walks, defense and RH bat means Fabian could carve out a nice career as a 4th OF even with a very high K rate. Like 30-35% at the MLB level and he’d still be an asset so long as everything else holds up. 

Now, with the way he’s gone so far at AA you have to doubt he can even get to that threshold level of K’s. But it’s certainly possible that they will be able to get him there. He’s still 22 in AA. 

But my hopes of him getting to a 20-25% K rate at the MLB level are very low. His chance of being a plus starter, and thus his prospect stock overall, is not looking great right now. 

[btdart20]

32 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Coby Mayo was promoted to Bowie at the end of last year and played 31 games there before the season ended. Jud has now played in 36 games at AA.

During that stretch for Mayo: .738 OPS (.371 BAbip) and a 34.5% strikeout rate.

For Jud: .672 OPS (.192 BAbip) and a 39.5% strikeout rate.

And we all know what Coby did in Bowie this year after having an offseason to grind.

A+ to AA is a huge jump no matter what age a prospect is. This might be the first time Fabian has seen a step-up in competition since he went from high school to the SEC in 2019. And it's in the middle of his first full professional season.

Obviously the strikeout rate brings up bad memories. And it might well end up that this is the ceiling. But there should be a grace period. If someone here has seen how he's being targeted and has concerns based on that, then that would be one thing. But he hasn't yet done anything disqualifying based on production alone.

And the elite talent is still there as reflected by the center field defense, stolen bases, and .243 ISO.

Let's see how he finishes the season.

The optimist in me still has high hopes that he'll put in the work to take the next step.  The realist in me sees a 22 y/o (not a 20 y/o Mayo) who needs to make that same type of adjustment.  The pessimist in me wonders when our prospect horseshoe will fall out of our back pocket.  The nihilist in me says "who cares we have Bradfield!"  The jaded OH commenter in me says "what about all of those who left Aberdeen for greener hitting pastures in Bowie? (while knowing the recent Aberdeen strugglers were primarily LHH while Fabian is a RHH but it's all anecdotal anyway so it's just board fodder)."

I may or may not have multiple personalities... 

[Alasdaire]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

The optimist in me still has high hopes that he'll put in the work to take the next step.  The realist in me sees a 22 y/o (not a 20 y/o Mayo) who needs to make that same type of adjustment.  The pessimist in me wonders when our prospect horseshoe will fall out of our back pocket.  The nihilist in me says "who cares we have Bradfield!"  The jaded OH commenter in me says "what about all of those who left Aberdeen for greener hitting pastures in Bowie? (while knowing the recent Aberdeen strugglers were primarily LHH while Fabian is a RHH but it's all anecdotal anyway so it's just board fodder)."

I may or may not have multiple personalities... 

This is what being an Orioles fan has done to us.

[sportsfan8703]

13 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The combination of power, walks, defense and RH bat means Fabian could carve out a nice career as a 4th OF even with a very high K rate. Like 30-35% at the MLB level and he’d still be an asset so long as everything else holds up. 

Now, with the way he’s gone so far at AA you have to doubt he can even get to that threshold level of K’s. But it’s certainly possible that they will be able to get him there. He’s still 22 in AA. 

But my hopes of him getting to a 20-25% K rate at the MLB level are very low. His chance of being a plus starter, and thus his prospect stock overall, is not looking great right now. 

Yup, players can and will adjust. Especially over an offseason. Adversity is good thing, because he’s definitely going to face that in the MLB. 

[sportsfan8703]

10th Homer in 36 games. However, only 26 total hits in 36 games in Bowie.