Orioles on Ben Clemens’ list of “five things I liked this week”

[Frobby]

Here’s an excerpt from Ben Clemens’ paean to the Orioles this week:

“The Orioles probably aren’t this good. Their record so far outstrips their Pythagorean expectation by three wins and their BaseRuns expectation by four. They’ve been one of the healthiest teams in the majors this year, which takes pressure off of their unproven depth. The rotation might be pitching over its collective head. Gunnar Henderson’s early struggles are undoubtedly concerning. 

“So what? There are a lot of teams in baseball with question marks right now, and most of them aren’t 24-13. Baltimore is an awesome baseball city. Camden Yards regularly drew 30,000 fans per game the last time the team was competitive. That might be a few years off yet, because the scars of tanking tend to linger, but this is undeniably a team on the upswing. The series against Tampa Bay was just a preview; regardless of what happens the rest of this season, Baltimore is finally hosting games with playoff implications again. I love it.”

[maybenxtyr]

Just now, Frobby said:

Here’s an excerpt from Ben Clemens’ paean to the Orioles this week:

“The Orioles probably aren’t this good. Their record so far outstrips their Pythagorean expectation by three wins and their BaseRuns expectation by four. They’ve been one of the healthiest teams in the majors this year, which takes pressure off of their unproven depth. The rotation might be pitching over its collective head. Gunnar Henderson’s early struggles are undoubtedly concerning. 

“So what? There are a lot of teams in baseball with question marks right now, and most of them aren’t 24-13. Baltimore is an awesome baseball city. Camden Yards regularly drew 30,000 fans per game the last time the team was competitive. That might be a few years off yet, because the scars of tanking tend to linger, but this is undeniably a team on the upswing. The series against Tampa Bay was just a preview; regardless of what happens the rest of this season, Baltimore is finally hosting games with playoff implications again. I love it.”

The pitching still has a long way to go and a lot to prove.

 

The offense on the other hand, really hasn't had anyone play above expectations, or even close in some instances except for Mateo for a really nice spell. I'm not as well versed on advance stats but I really believe that there's room for growth in regards to the hitting.

[Fiver6565]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s an excerpt from Ben Clemens’ paean to the Orioles this week:

“The Orioles probably aren’t this good. Their record so far outstrips their Pythagorean expectation by three wins and their BaseRuns expectation by four. They’ve been one of the healthiest teams in the majors this year, which takes pressure off of their unproven depth. The rotation might be pitching over its collective head. Gunnar Henderson’s early struggles are undoubtedly concerning. 

“So what? There are a lot of teams in baseball with question marks right now, and most of them aren’t 24-13. Baltimore is an awesome baseball city. Camden Yards regularly drew 30,000 fans per game the last time the team was competitive. That might be a few years off yet, because the scars of tanking tend to linger, but this is undeniably a team on the upswing. The series against Tampa Bay was just a preview; regardless of what happens the rest of this season, Baltimore is finally hosting games with playoff implications again. I love it.”

Nice to see.  I would add that he's right in his fifth point - the Cubs broadcast is very entertaining.

[Fiver6565]

I would also add that I think Pythagorean record is stupid and always have. Who cares if you lost a couple games by 6 runs instead of 2 or 4?  Or won a game by 3 instead of 5 after a mop up reliever gave up 2 in the ninth?  Maybe later in the season it matters more, but after less than 40 games, its meaningless to me.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Fiver6565 said:

I would also add that I think Pythagorean record is stupid and always have. Who cares if you lost a couple games by 6 runs instead of 2 or 4?  Or won a game by 3 instead of 5 after a mop up reliever gave up 2 in the ninth?  Maybe later in the season it matters more, but after less than 40 games, its meaningless to me.

Teams that score more runs than they give up generally win more games over the course of a season than teams that are outscored.

It isn't about what happened in one particular game.

Frankly you sound like someone that doesn't like a thing because you don't like what that thing is telling you.

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s an excerpt from Ben Clemens’ paean to the Orioles this week:

“The Orioles probably aren’t this good. Their record so far outstrips their Pythagorean expectation by three wins and their BaseRuns expectation by four. They’ve been one of the healthiest teams in the majors this year, which takes pressure off of their unproven depth. The rotation might be pitching over its collective head. Gunnar Henderson’s early struggles are undoubtedly concerning. 

“So what? There are a lot of teams in baseball with question marks right now, and most of them aren’t 24-13. Baltimore is an awesome baseball city. Camden Yards regularly drew 30,000 fans per game the last time the team was competitive. That might be a few years off yet, because the scars of tanking tend to linger, but this is undeniably a team on the upswing. The series against Tampa Bay was just a preview; regardless of what happens the rest of this season, Baltimore is finally hosting games with playoff implications again. I love it.”

This blurb was just outrageous and yes, it was commented upon.

Quote

The Orioles started a comprehensive teardown in 2017

 

[Frobby]

Just now, Fiver6565 said:

I would also add that I think Pythagorean record is stupid and always have. Who cares if you lost a couple games by 6 runs instead of 2 or 4?  Or won a game by 3 instead of 5 after a mop up reliever gave up 2 in the ninth?  Maybe later in the season it matters more, but after less than 40 games, its meaningless to me.

It has more predictive value than actual record does.  A team that outperforms its record by 3 games in the first 37 games is not likely to end the season 12-13 games above its pyrhagorean record.  

That said, our current pythag would project to 92 wins, even without the three “extra” wins we have in hand.  Sign me up for that!

 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

This blurb was just outrageous and yes, it was commented upon.

 

Probably just a memory lapse on Clemens’ part.  He was off by half a season.  

[Matt Bennett]

Are we a .650 winning percentage ball-club? No. But we can play and playoffs are undoubtedly the expectation, regardless of the underwhelming off-season additions. We've been healthy yeah and that should normalize. But we also have the best AAA team in baseball overflowing with legitimate prospects ready for the majors.

There are a few prime regression candidates. Tyler Wells is one. I'd suspect that ERA will start with a "4" sooner or later. Austin Hays also isn't a .304/352/.504 guy. But better than a 107 and 104 OPS+ we've seen from him the last two years is very reasonable. Jorge Mateo has taken a big leap forward but his K%, BB%, hard hit % all got better, signaling improvement and not just luck. 

We've seen Dean Kremer be better. We've seen Kyle Bradish be better. We've seen what Grayson has. The positive and negative regressions can certainly cancel each other out. 

[Frobby]

Even though Clemens likes the O’s, Fangraphs still projects the O’s to go 61-64 the rest of the season and finish 85-77.   They rate our playoff chances at 33.2%, lowest in the AL East.  

[Hank Scorpio]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Even though Clemens likes the O’s, Fangraphs still projects the O’s to go 61-64 the rest of the season and finish 85-77.   They rate our playoff chances at 33.2%, lowest in the AL East.  

Wow..... that's what they used to call bulletin board material. 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Hank Scorpio

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Wow..... that's what they call bulletin board material. 

What's a bulletin?

[Hank Scorpio]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What's a bulletin?

Fixed.

[Moose Milligan]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Even though Clemens likes the O’s, Fangraphs still projects the O’s to go 61-64 the rest of the season and finish 85-77.   They rate our playoff chances at 33.2%, lowest in the AL East.  

Suck it, Fangraphs. 

[Fiver6565]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Teams that score more runs than they give up generally win more games over the course of a season than teams that are outscored.

It isn't about what happened in one particular game.

Frankly you sound like someone that doesn't like a thing because you don't like what that thing is telling you.

I don’t really care what I sound like to you. If it said we should have three more wins instead of three less I’d be just as skeptical of it.