If you were Adley, what contract terms would you agree to today if offered?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Mr-splash said:

Adley will probably still be producing similarly to what he is now at 29. Hell, he may even be more productive by that point. It wouldn't be that unlikely. So if I'm him I would want to play out my pre arb years. OBP guys age like wine. Goldschmidt won league MVP last year at 35. If Adley was a high average, low walk rate speedster I'd be very skeptical of a deal keeping him past age 31 or so. So he has the player profile to maintain production into his 30s. The only problem is being a catcher the knees only have so many miles on them. He may have to eventually move to 1B in his 30s. But the bat will stay be plus at 1B.

I agree with everything you say here, but there’s a huge difference in value  in being an .850 OPS C and an .850 OPS 1B.  It’s like 1.5 - 3 WAR, depending on defensive prowess at the two positions.  So the question of if/when Rutschman moves off catcher hugely impacts what you’d pay him, even assuming he retains his offensive skills.  

[Mr-splash]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol. So he is going to buck most historical trends for players, much less catchers?

Its possible but acting as if it’s a fact is foolish at best.

The historical trend is high OBP guys maintain their production as they age into 30s. A guy like Mateo has little value in his 30s. A guy like Goldschmidt has tons of value in his 30s. OBP is king.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

The historical trend is high OBP guys maintain their production as they age into 30s. A guy like Mateo has little value in his 30s. A guy like Goldschmidt has tons of value in his 30s. OBP is king.

 

4 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

The historical trend is high OBP guys maintain their production as they age into 30s. A guy like Mateo has little value in his 30s. A guy like Goldschmidt has tons of value in his 30s. OBP is king.

What is your evidence for that because I have never seen one study that says this is even remotely accurate.

And btw, depending on how you define a “high on Base” guy, I’m not sure I put Adley in that category.

Edited May 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[geschinger]

7 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

The historical trend is high OBP guys maintain their production as they age into 30s. A guy like Mateo has little value in his 30s. A guy like Goldschmidt has tons of value in his 30s. OBP is king.

For every Goldschmidt there are many Cabrera and Pujols - guys who lost about .200pts of OPS between their late 20s / early 30s production and what they produced from ~age 33 onwards.  And they weren't catchers.

Edited May 19, 2023 by geschinger

[Billy F-Face3]

Nothing in life is guaranteed... except for long term Major League contracts. Adley could be 1 injury away from missing out on his only shot at a life changing contract.  A MLB team does not have to offer a player an arbitration seasonal contract and if that player suffered some terrible injury, odds are that injury will scare teams away. (I mean just look at all the drama surrounding Carlos Correa's physical in the off season. That cost him alot of money. And if there's a injury that's even more severe, there might be no teams interested.)  If an injury were to happen, the hopes to secure a contract that would improve your family's financial security for generations could be gone. And being a Catcher, this a higher chance of such an injury happening.

If I'm Adley, I'm open to being extended to a guaranteed contract while I know I can get that guaranteed financial security while I'm healthy. Then, if I'm the Orioles and Adley accepts a contract extension, I'm doing everything in my power to protect that investment and keep him healthy for the long term.

And like others have suggested, because Adley's batting skills is so good, there's always the possibility if it becomes necessary later in his career like his later 30s to move to playing another position such as 1st base or just a full time DH. Heck, I remember Mickey Tettleton even switched to playing right field towards the end of his career.

[Mr-splash]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

What is your evidence for that because I have never seen one study that says this is even remotely accurate.

 

Walk rate improves into a players mid 30s. It is the ultimate old player skill. Batting average improves and tops out in the mid 20s. Batting average is a young player skill. Power tops out in late 20s. Adley's value is tied up in walks, at least a significant portion of it. Old man skills. 

 

Aging Gracefully: Approaching Aging Curves and Advanced Stats- Part II - The Dynasty Guru

Edited May 19, 2023 by Mr-splash

[Es4M11]

I think it is highly unlikely a long term deal gets done with Adley. It just doesn't make a lot of sense for either party. He's going to make it to free agency. It would be surprising to me if Adley were traded prior to free agency, especially if the Orioles are competitive in ~3.5 years from now.

[Moose Milligan]

If I were Adley I’d be reading the OH every day and see if I could get Frobby and SG to do a steel cage ladder match WWE style  for the right to be my agent. 

[geschinger]

2 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

I think it is highly unlikely a long term deal gets done with Adley. It just doesn't make a lot of sense for either party. He's going to make it to free agency. It would be surprising to me if Adley were traded prior to free agency, especially if the Orioles are competitive in ~3.5 years from now.

I think this is the most likely outcome as well.  He's analogous to someone like Correa in Houston another 1st overall guy who was the symbol of their franchise turnaround.  A smart team like the Astros wasn't going to commit past his early 30s and he knew he could get paid into his late 30s from less smart teams so they parted ways.

[Mr-splash]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If I were Adley I’d be reading the OH every day and see if I could get Frobby and SG to do a steel cage ladder match WWE style  for the right to be my agent. 

 

I suppose a positive takeaway from all this is Adley did not hire Scott Boras. Suggesting that he's not a pure Ronald Reagan 80s corporatist hyper greedy man type guy. I don't get those vibes from Adley. Never struck me as a man primarily consumed about greed. He plays with heart and joy for the game. Of course he wants to be fairly compensated, but I don't think he's going to try and squeeze every last dollar he can. 

[Es4M11]

2 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I think this is the most likely outcome as well.  He's analogous to someone like Correa in Houston another 1st overall guy who was the symbol of their franchise turnaround.  A smart team like the Astros wasn't going to commit past his early 30s and he knew he could get paid into his late 30s from less smart teams so they parted ways.

I think that's a fairly good comparison right now.

We should probably all just enjoy the ride for the next 4.5 years, because this guy is awesome and we get to have him in his absolute prime.

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

What is your evidence for that because I have never seen one study that says this is even remotely accurate.

And btw, depending on how you define a “high on Base” guy, I’m not sure I put Adley in that category.

I think OBP is kind of a proxy for strike zone control.   I've heard what I think @Mr-splashis getting at said like O-Swing damage ages badly - just compare the end games for Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen anecdotally.     

Victor Martinez didn't get a full season until a late Age either, and still got to 8000 PA.    His career in the end was 850 catcher, 850 DH, 200 1B.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

 

Walk rate improves into a players mid 30s. It is the ultimate old player skill. Batting average improves and tops out in the mid 20s. Batting average is a young player skill. Power tops out in late 20s. Adley's value is tied up in walks, at least a significant portion of it. Old man skills. 

 

Aging Gracefully: Approaching Aging Curves and Advanced Stats- Part II - The Dynasty Guru

Your value can’t be tied up in walks if you are making 35M. That’s absurd.

Adam Dunn was basically done in his low 30s.

[Billy F-Face3]

The more I keep thinking about this, the more I keep settling on the uncertainty of the future. If I'm Adley, I'd want the security. I mean just look at Heston Kjerstad.  Out of the blue, he was hit with a very rare heart condition and the diagnosis threatened his entire career. 

You never know what could happen.

I'd take the guaranteed contract while it's possible.

[Mr-splash]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Your value can’t be tied up in walks if you are making 35M. That’s absurd.

Adam Dunn was basically done in his low 30s.

Well, it's a good thing Adley is slugging .462 then!