Rodriguez's "stuff"

[interloper]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t really understand what you want Rodriguez to do, other than pitch better. “Don’t throw pitches in spots where they can be hit hard.”  Well, of course.  “Throw better breaking pitches.”   Fine.  I’m sure Grayson knows he needs to do these things.  Knowing what you need to do, and being able to do it, are two different things.  This is more about executing the game plan than changing the game plan. 

Yeah, this is why I think all the "he's learning" stuff is bunk. He knows. He just can't physically do the things he knows he has to do. That's it. It would be the same in AAA, except he'd get away with it more. He has nothing left to learn except to find something mechanically that will help him execute. There's not much else to say about it to be honest. 

Edited May 19, 2023 by interloper

[Camden_yardbird]

Cold water already? Best pitcher in the game today - Gerritt Cole, go look at 2016 and 2017...and give Rodriguez time to adjust.

[Just Regular]

8 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

Eno always admits that his model is shaky on changeups (just look at Cano's changeup being rated in the 80s by his model!)

Cano's Stuff+ readouts have been chewed over on the R&B podcast, and Eno gave the context not to worry about the weak reading.     The pitch is basically a Does Not Compute scenario - some of the explanation is the model looks for comparable pitches, and there aren't any.

The pitchers neighborhood close were Darren O'Day types, except Yennier is a big man throwing hard and not underhanded.

[Baltimorecuse]

15 hours ago, interloper said:

But command is more important than either, IMO. Grayson won't be a good ML SP until he finds command. You can survive with less command as a RP, though! So that's always an option in his future I guess. 

Yes, I am cranky about Grayson Rodriguez. 

Spot on.  The issue is control.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Baltimorecuse said:

Spot on.  The issue is control.  

In this context control and command are not synonyms. 

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ubaldo had a better career than Alex Wells.

From what I saw, Wells’ command didn’t translate very well from the minors to the majors.  His command was not as good as what I had expected to see.  Too small a sample to really know.  But it’s pretty telling that nobody picked him up when the O’s released him.  

Anyway, here’s a test I did.  There were 140 pitchers last year who threw 100+ innings.  The bottom 20% in BB/9 were at 3.48 or worse.  (Shockingly, the “borderline case” was Zach Davies.). Of the high-walk group, only four were pretty successful: Dylan Cease (3.82 BB/9, 4.4 fWAR), Justin Steele (3.78, 2.6), Patrick Sandoval (3.63, 3.8) and Blake Snell (3.59, 3.7).  Everyone else was as 1.5 fWAR or worse.  Cease and Snell have premium velocity (7th and 17th among the 140 SP); Sandoval (79th) and Steele (100th) do not.   But all four of them have wipeout sliders ranked among the best in the game.
 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

From what I saw, Wells’ command didn’t translate very well from the minors to the majors.  His command was not as good as what I had expected to see.  Too small a sample to really know.  But it’s pretty telling that nobody picked him up when the O’s released him.  

Anyway, here’s a test I did.  There were 140 pitchers last year who threw 100+ innings.  The bottom 20% in BB/9 were at 3.48 or worse.  (Shockingly, the “borderline case” was Zach Davies.). Of the high-walk group, only four were pretty successful: Dylan Cease (3.82 BB/9, 4.4 fWAR), Justin Steele (3.78, 2.6), Patrick Sandoval (3.63, 3.8) and Blake Snell (3.59, 3.7).  Everyone else was as 1.5 fWAR or worse.  Cease and Snell have premium velocity (7th and 17th among the 140 SP); Sandoval (79th) and Steele (100th) do not.   But all four of them have wipeout sliders ranked among the best in the game.
 

I used Wells because he qualified and was a recent former Oriole.

The fact that he didn't pitch in the WBC makes me wonder if something else is going on with him.

[Mr-splash]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

From what I saw, Wells’ command didn’t translate very well from the minors to the majors.  His command was not as good as what I had expected to see.  Too small a sample to really know.  But it’s pretty telling that nobody picked him up when the O’s released him.  

Anyway, here’s a test I did.  There were 140 pitchers last year who threw 100+ innings.  The bottom 20% in BB/9 were at 3.48 or worse.  (Shockingly, the “borderline case” was Zach Davies.). Of the high-walk group, only four were pretty successful: Dylan Cease (3.82 BB/9, 4.4 fWAR), Justin Steele (3.78, 2.6), Patrick Sandoval (3.63, 3.8) and Blake Snell (3.59, 3.7).  Everyone else was as 1.5 fWAR or worse.  Cease and Snell have premium velocity (7th and 17th among the 140 SP); Sandoval (79th) and Steele (100th) do not.   But all four of them have wipeout sliders ranked among the best in the game.
 

Cease is the exact kind of pitcher I was talking about. He is having a down year. Make no mistake he's not a true consistent #1 year in and year out. But his command is flat out average. Cease is one of the few 5 or so pitchers in the MLB with the actual raw stuff to pretty much dominate hitters on raw talent and stuff alone. Cease is not somebody Rodriguez should model his game after. You either have wipeout stuff or you don't. Cease has it. Rodriguez doesn't. As I said before, Johan Santana and Kevin Gausman should be studied carefully by Rodriguez. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Mr-splash said:

Cease is the exact kind of pitcher I was talking about. He is having a down year. Make no mistake he's not a true consistent #1 year in and year out. But his command is flat out average. Cease is one of the few 5 or so pitchers in the MLB with the actual raw stuff to pretty much dominate hitters on raw talent and stuff alone. Cease is not somebody Rodriguez should model his game after. You either have wipeout stuff or you don't. Cease has it. Rodriguez doesn't. As I said before, Johan Santana and Kevin Gausman should be studied carefully by Rodriguez. 

I’ve already given my impressions of Grayson’s stuff in another post.  I do think Gausman was similar in certain respects when he came up.  We were often bemoaning his lack of a consistent 3rd pitch and him not having great command or movement on his otherwise high velocity fastball.   Those are problems Grayson has had this year.  Those are not problems I’ve seen him have in the past prior to the lat injury last year.

[Baltimorecuse]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

In this context control and command are not synonyms. 

Did I say it was?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Baltimorecuse said:

Did I say it was?

You agreed with someone that was talking about command and then you stated the issue was control.

So if you don't think they are synonyms what are you talking about?

 

[Baltimorecuse]

I got you.  Good point.  I did treat it as synonymous.

[RZNJ]

So far today seems to be getting on top of the ball better.  He’s been able to drive multiple fastballs in knee high.   Seems like an arm slot thing.  Also not twisting on his landing leg towards 1B like usual.  He needs to stay on top and direct to the plate.

[Mr-splash]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So far today seems to be getting on top of the ball better.  He’s been able to drive multiple fastballs in knee high.   Seems like an arm slot thing.  Also not twisting on his landing leg towards 1B like usual.  He needs to stay on top and direct to the plate.

Stuff looks the same as it always does, but if you locate low and away you don't need dominant stuff. 97 low and away is going to work.

[tntoriole]

Not sure how many saw Grayson pitch at Bowie and Norfolk but I saw him and he had DOMINANT stuff.  He made hitters look stupid stuff.  His pitches are NOT the same quality this year. 
You do not become consensus number 1 pitcher prospect in MLB  without fantastic stuff.   He has lost it this year.