Bowden: Top 100 guys on GMs minds for trades

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is absolutely a spot. 
 

Can we please stop treating OHearn and especially Hicks as something they aren’t.

Currently they’re our 4th and 6th place hitters. It’s tough to just toss the hot hand away. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

He had 3 months worth of games outside of Aberdeen last year. His stats against LHP were absolutely dreadful. It's great that he's doing much better this year but it's 43 PA.......That's nothing. And the quality of pitcher he's facing in Norfolk is nowhere near the level he'll face in the bigs. That should be plenty obvious at this point. 

He's a good, maybe great, prospect. But we can't just sit here and act like there aren't plenty of reputable scouts out there that have questions about his splits. I highly doubt 43 PA are enough to absolutely answer those questions. I'm not being overly critical of the kid. He does a bunch of other things well. But if I'm Mike Elias and I'm thinking about the rest of the year, I'd much rather stick with Tony and Hays. No question. Saying that, I'd still like for him to come up at some point and get some chances. Just not at the expense of those two which is what I was responding to. 

So, the 43 PA he has so far this year is nothing but the 66 PA he had last year we should put a lot of weight on?  In a year where they said they were reworking his swing?

Got it. That makes complete sense!

Clearly, the extra 23 PA make all the difference in the world.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[cboemmeljr]

My issue with Jim Bowden is his ego and revisionist history.  If you listen to him enough he talks like he was God's gift to GM's.  He worries about and keeps track of his "correct" predictions...it's all about him.  He makes people think he is an "expert".  There isn't a free agent he wouldn't sign for mega bucks and he "loves" players in a way that says he discovered them.  He was not a very successful GM but I guess if you get an ESPN gig people think you're the bomb.

With the Athletic cutting some local coverage, Bowden is just trying to get clicks, IMO.  Lets throw 100 names on the wall and when all is said and done I can say I got x% correct.

When all is said and done by August I know one thing.  A portion of the fan base and of this board will fuss and complain when/if the above players are traded away.

"Why trade him?"

"Didn't get enough back!"

"What are they doing?"

I do find it funny that prospects that were touted as cornerstones are now wanted to be traded away.  

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

He had 3 months worth of games outside of Aberdeen last year. His stats against LHP were absolutely dreadful.

I posted a write up on this in response to Tony's when he wrote about Cowser's hitting LHP.  3 months, but an uneven distribution of LHP faced.

Colton Cowser Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com | baseballsavant.com

2022 vs LHP:

Aberdeen - 68 PAs - .143/.279/.179 

Bowie - 42 PAs - .278/.357/.361 - marked improvement over Aberdeen.

Norfolk - 48 PAs - .189/.375/.378 - adjustment period to AAA pitching.  But the OBP is still there (i.e. the same thing we saw with Gunnar early this season)

[Brooks The Great]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Currently they’re our 4th and 6th place hitters. It’s tough to just toss the hot hand away. 

It's really not, though. Not long ago, Frazier was hitting leadoff even though he had no business doing so with his putrid on base skills. But right before Hyde threw him in the leadoff spot when Mullins went down, Frazier was the "hot hand". Frazier proceeded to be Frazier and sucked there, so Hyde thankfully pulled the plug and moved Gunnar to leadoff. 

O'Hearn and especially Hicks have no recent track records of sustaining elite production for long stretches. With Hicks, he hasn't done so since his age 27 and age 28 seasons (5 years ago!), while O'Hearn has never shown it to even actually be a regular starter (he had a nice debut in 2018, but that was over just 44 games). This is literally O'Hearn's first hot stretch to the point he's forced his way into a lineup regularly. It's bad management to let players like them dictate your lineup or roster moves.

If O'Hearn in particular has unlocked his potential and he is now worthy of starting regularly, he'll continue to demonstrate those skills even in a bench role. And it'll be a good problem to have. But to keep future regular starters for your major league roster down in the minors because of journeymen having a good few weeks would be foolish. 

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the question really is, who would you rather see dealt…Westburg, Ortiz, et al or Hays/Santander?

That could be a question Elias has to answer. 

On this list I think Urias, Mateo, Frazier, and Santander are reasonable trade targets, though my preference is to keep Santander and see if someone wants Mountcastle as a reclamation project.  Urias doesn't have a position on this team and Mateo has about 9 shortstops banging on the door while he's OPSing .622.  Hays absolutely not.  I'd rather roll with him and pray he doesn't get hurt.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Hallas

[webbrick2010]

38 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

With Mullins healthy, and Hicks/OHearn playing well, there just isn’t a spot for Cowser. It’s a shame he was hurt when Mullins got hurt, but then we probably don’t lure Hicks here. 
 

Catching depth is probably our only position player weakness right now. It would’ve been nice if Torrens would’ve stuck around. 

Why not trade Hicks, he is not part of the future, he is likely not going to keep up his O's pace,  he would be a good OF depth option for multiple teams, and he is cheap since the Yankees are paying his salary

[LTO's]

24 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I posted a write up on this in response to Tony's when he wrote about Cowser's hitting LHP.  3 months, but an uneven distribution of LHP faced.

Colton Cowser Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com | baseballsavant.com

2022 vs LHP:

Aberdeen - 68 PAs - .143/.279/.179 

Bowie - 42 PAs - .278/.357/.361 - marked improvement over Aberdeen.

Norfolk - 48 PAs - .189/.375/.378 - adjustment period to AAA pitching.  But the OBP is still there (i.e. the same thing we saw with Gunnar early this season)

Good work. I was mostly aware of this breakdown but it's nice to see the actual numbers. Keep in mind, if we are noting the park factors at ABD it's only fair to acknowledge the same in Bowie in the dead of summer. Again, I'm stressing that I think he's a good prospect. He has a natural feel to hit and a great command of the strike zone. I also think he's quite athletic. But the questions are there. It's just how it is. I'm focused on the very near future here because the team we have is quite good. It's my opinion that he would struggle against major league caliber LHPs this summer. Doesn't mean that he will for his entire career but giving him an every day role on this squad at the expense of Santander does not make them better. 

 

[sportsfan8703]

28 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

It's really not, though. Not long ago, Frazier was hitting leadoff even though he had no business doing so with his putrid on base skills. But right before Hyde threw him in the leadoff spot when Mullins went down, Frazier was the "hot hand". Frazier proceeded to be Frazier and sucked there, so Hyde thankfully pulled the plug and moved Gunnar to leadoff. 

O'Hearn and especially Hicks have no recent track records of sustaining elite production for long stretches. With Hicks, he hasn't done so since his age 27 and age 28 seasons (5 years ago!), while O'Hearn has never shown it to even actually be a regular starter (he had a nice debut in 2018, but that was over just 44 games). This is literally O'Hearn's first hot stretch to the point he's forced his way into a lineup regularly. It's bad management to let players like them dictate your lineup or roster moves.

If O'Hearn in particular has unlocked his potential and he is now worthy of starting regularly, he'll continue to demonstrate those skills even in a bench role. And it'll be a good problem to have. But to keep future regular starters for your major league roster down in the minors because of journeymen having a good few weeks would be foolish. 

Yes. Frazier was placed in the lead off spot. However, he didn’t have a 1.000 OPS for us like O’Hearn and Hicks do. You gotta ride these two hot hands out. 
 

Cowser’s time will come. There’s still 55% of the season left. Things happen. You just don’t go getting rid of guys and depth. Depth is great to have over 162. Everyone wants to be the Rays, but deep down they want to also have a set 1-9 with everyone under 25. 

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

But the questions are there. It's just how it is. I'm focused on the very near future here because the team we have is quite good. It's my opinion that he would struggle against major league caliber LHPs this summer.

Thanks.  These are fair concerns.  How he'll handle MLB pitching (righty and lefty) will be a question until he has a chance to answer it.  Is the middle of a playoff hunt that right time?  IDK what Elias says.  But I hope we can get creative to get him some PAs in 2023 instead of waiting for 2024.  I don't anticipate the creativity involving Hays, Mullins, or Santander though.  What was Hicks told in the recruiting process (anything like what McCann was told)?  Are we open to trading him or did we unlock something real somehow?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

Mountcastle would be a good fit for a team looking for a DH against LH pitching, and also a short porch to LF. Could that be the Astro's. We dumped Mancini on them last year. Mountcastle has very similar skill set.

If Elias can trade Mountcastle for anything of value then you have to seriously consider it. It might take Mountcastle getting traded at this point to get him to change his approach at the plate.

I'm tired of watching Mountcastle's brief hot streaks followed up by long dry spells with an overall decline in performance each season.

[Camden_yardbird]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you are really overvaluing and undervaluing guys. You don’t think Cowser can come up and be worth 1 WAR, which is what Santander has been worth?

What about Hays?  Are you buying him as an 850+ OPS guy the whole year?

And again, you and others are ignoring defense.

I don’t quite get this site sometimes. We have a lot of smart people on here but people seem to only look at on aspect of play and continuously overrate players that 5 months ago, they have dealt in a heartbeat or totally disregarded at all.

Now a few months of good play occurs and suddenly they can’t be replaced. It’s very odd to me.

1. If you make blanket statements about "people on the site" you shouldn't be replying to a specific post.

2.  It is not cognitive dissonance to say in the offseason that a player should be traded and then see their effect in the first hals of the season and say they shouldnt.  There is literally additional data in which to revise your outlook.

If you are GM are you trading an 850 OPS guy banking on his regression when you are clearly in the playoff race.  If so you would be the first GM ever to do so.

If Hays does regress, maybe you replace him with Cowser, but you don't trade him banking on Cowser replacing him.

And yes, I think it's possible Cowser doesn't put up 1 WAR in his first say 200 ABs.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There is absolutely a spot. 
 

Can we please stop treating OHearn and especially Hicks as something they aren’t.

You know what teams don’t do?  Acquire or bring up players, have them do well for several weeks, and then cut their playing time precipitously.   Even if they expect those players to come back to Earth.

[24fps]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You know what teams don’t do?  Acquire or bring up players, have them do well for several weeks, and then cut their playing time precipitously.   Even if they expect those players to come back to Earth.

How players are treated by management will certainly be noted by other players, and that is an important consideration, but what do the Orioles owe O'Hearn and Hicks in the way of playing time at this point?  Or to put it differently, how much does a fringe player or two's hot streak get to usurp a GM's decision making autonomy?

There is no rule, unwritten or otherwise, that requires a team to absorb a slump as a debt owed to a player who had a hot streak, even if it came at an opportune time.  It annoys me that it doesn't look like ME is going to fast track Cowser and Westburg but it will be deeply disappointing if he feels his hands are tied in the way you're suggesting.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, 24fps said:

How players are treated by management will certainly be noted by other players, and that is an important consideration, but what do the Orioles owe O'Hearn and Hicks in the way of playing time at this point?  Or to put it differently, how much does a fringe player or two's hot streak get to usurp a GM's decision making autonomy?

There is no rule, unwritten or otherwise, that requires a team to absorb a slump as a debt owed to a player who had a hot streak, even if it came at an opportune time.  It annoys me that it doesn't look like ME is going to fast track Cowser and Westburg but it will be deeply disappointing if he feels his hands are tied in the way you're suggesting.

Did I say they were required to do it, or that they did it because they thought they owed the player something?  No.  They just want to be damned sure that a player who has helped them can’t help them anymore.