Orioles calling up Westburg.

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

It is the opposite, i.e. use Joey Ortiz as long or short as needed to allow Holliday to develop according to whatever schedule helps the team the most. 

Listen I get it. You really like Joey Ortiz. We don't agree on this and that's ok. But I appreciate the exchange of ideas.

IMO Jackson Holliday is a superior talent to Joey Ortiz and Jorge Mateo. We have a limited window with Adley and Gunnar as our awful owner appears to have very little interest in the success of the team or it's potential to win championships. He appears to be more preoccupied with other interest and not really interested in spending much money.

So while we have these great players, I think that we should do all that we can to maximize our bites at the apple i.e. get the most/best talent players on the field together to try to win WS while we can. Delaying Holliday's arrival for the sake of holding onto Joey Ortiz does not appear to be congruent with that goal IMO.

[Baltimorecuse]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I know that you understand this so I don't want to come across as sarcastic or condescending but if he hits, he helps the ball club win which is the ultimate objective, whether journeymen, prospects, pick ups from waivers or highly sought after players acquired from trade or FA help us win; does it really matter where they come from as long as they produce?

Cowser and then Kjerstad will get their turns and hopefully they will produce when called upon. We are on track to be on par offensively with the Braves/Rays (best in the sport) in the near future. We just have to be a little patient as we wait on the calvary to continue to arrive.

Btw, it was me that asked you that question.

What fan does not want to the best nine dress for the game every night?  But there are more variables involved in that than meets the eye.  

I was merely joking about our embarrassment of riches which is something we used to call a good problem to have.  

[forphase1]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Lastly, Gunnar and Holliday are different in the fact that one was drafted at the top of the SECOND ROUND and the other was 1:1. How you handle those draft profiles is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT.

So?  Where they were drafted should have little to no bearing on how you handle them.  The talent and ability should be the determining factor.  Many of the best players the game has ever known were not drafted 1:1, and many 1:1 picks were complete busts.  Draft status should only matter as to the expectations are higher for being drafted higher, but it shouldn't force a player to follow a specific path or plan if he's talent and ability isn't matching with that plan.  

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Listen I get it. You really like Joey Ortiz. We don't agree on this and that's ok. But I appreciate the exchange of ideas.

IMO Jackson Holliday is a superior talent to Joey Ortiz and Jorge Mateo. We have a limited window with Adley and Gunnar as our awful owner appears to have very little interest in the success of the team or it's potential to win championships. He appears to be more preoccupied with other interest and not really interested in spending much money.

So while we have these great players, I think that we should do all that we can to maximize our bites at the apple i.e. get the most/best talent players on the field together to try to win WS while we can. Delaying Holliday's arrival for the sake of holding onto Joey Ortiz does not appear to be congruent with that goal IMO.

Nobody is talking about delaying Holliday for the sake of Joey Ortiz. I have laid out several reasons to keep Ortiz and play him in a full time role until Holliday's arrival but you are ignoring them. There are also many pathways to a full time or at least quasi-full time job even assuming Holliday is our future SS. Just to recap:

1) Westburg isn't as good as we think.

2) Gunnar isn't as good as we think and/or never learns to hit lefties (which is already a known weakness).

3) Westburg, Gunnar, or Holliday suffers a terrible injury.

4) Holliday takes longer than we think. 

We all agree Holliday is our number one prospect and every expectation is that he will take priority. There are still lots of ways Ortiz can help us as more than a utility. If the dust settles and he is still "just" a utility guy, that also could be valuable. 

It is not like I am in love with Ortiz. I am open to trading him, as stated. For now, my operating assumption is that he is in our organization so I don't see the downside in using him for now, until Holliday is ready. 

 

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

What fan does not want to the best nine dress for the game every night?  But there are more variables involved in that than meets the eye.  

I was merely joking about our embarrassment of riches which is something we used to call a good problem to have.  

I figured that you were joking. But the variable that should be the primary factor for consideration (and I hope that you agree with this) is WINNING. Sports has traditionally been and should always be a meritocracy. Whoever is playing the best should play and for those who are not, they should not. If/when Hicks and/or O'Hearn begin to struggle or revert back to their recent history, they will and should be replaced.

As for right now, they are doing very well and should continue to be given opportunities to do so. Cowser and Kjerstad will have their time to shine and I believe/hope that when called upon BOTH will. But for now, it is not injurious to them or their development to remain where they are, until their is someone for them to replace who is not performing. 

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

So?  Where they were drafted should have little to no bearing on how you handle them.  The talent and ability should be the determining factor.  Many of the best players the game has ever known were not drafted 1:1, and many 1:1 picks were complete busts.  Draft status should only matter as to the expectations are higher for being drafted higher, but it shouldn't force a player to follow a specific path or plan if he's talent and ability isn't matching with that plan.  

Well, we don't have to worry about the talent or ability with Jackson Holliday. I think that he has shown thus far, that he is doing ok in that department...lol

[24fps]

25 minutes ago, Number5 said:

We were down 2-1.  Out of reach?

Hyperbole, but only a little.  Wells and Westburg looked like the only two Orioles who showed up for work.  I checked out shortly after Frazier's AB and probably slept better because of it.

[forphase1]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

Well, we don't have to worry about the talent or ability with Jackson Holliday. I think that he has shown thus far, that he is doing ok in that department...lol

No doubt, though he's certainly cooled off the past month or so.  My point is simply that we often get too hung up over draft status and position when frequently it's at best a rough measuring stick of how a player is going to do.  Talent and ability should be the determining factor in who gets promoted and gets playing time, not draft status.  Sure, a 1st round draft pick, especially 1:1 SHOULD be in the top of an organization in talent and ability, but that isn't always the case, and sometimes that 5th rounder  (or 62nd rounder for Mike Piazza, for example) ends up being the most talented player in the organization, passing up the other higher picks.  Heck, even our Orioles HOF members weren't 1st round picks, with Eddie Murray being drafted in the 3rd round and Cal in the 2nd.  Mussina was a 1st rounder (20th overall), having been an 11th rounder 3 years prior.  

All that said, I am not sure we see Holiday up to start 2024, nor would I be surprised if we didn't see him until his rookie year for 2025 is established.  We will see. 

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Nobody is talking about delaying Holliday for the sake of Joey Ortiz. I have laid out several reasons to keep Ortiz and play him in a full time role until Holliday's arrival but you are ignoring them. There are also many pathways to a full time or at least quasi-full time job even assuming Holliday is our future SS. Just to recap:

1) Westburg isn't as good as we think.

2) Gunnar isn't as good as we think and/or never learns to hit lefties (which is already a known weakness).

3) Westburg, Gunnar, or Holliday suffers a terrible injury.

4) Holliday takes longer than we think. 

We all agree Holliday is our number one prospect and every expectation is that he will take priority. There are still lots of ways Ortiz can help us as more than a utility. If the dust settles and he is still "just" a utility guy, that also could be valuable. 

It is not like I am in love with Ortiz. I am open to trading him, as stated. For now, my operating assumption is that he is in our organization so I don't see the downside in using him for now, until Holliday is ready. 

 

You make valid points and I acknowledge the validity of each of them.

I see things a little different than you. I understand that their is a risk involved with any course of action chosen. However, Elias appears to be as risk-adverse and conservative as they come when handling young players. 

From the data points that we have thus far (and even some of his comments) it appears that he prefers the one prospect at a time approach. To me that means that he is not going to have Ortiz starting right now with Westburg just coming up to the show and a place being made for him. I assume that Cowser will be next and then Kjerstad. He appears to have an affinity for Mateo based on his athletic profile for some reason.

When I combine all of those things, I see Ortiz not getting a legit shot until next season. At which point, it will only be a matter of time before Holliday is ready for the bigs IMO.

IMO the prudent thing to do, since we need a difference making starting piece now (this season) is to take the players who are not contributing to this club's success in a major way and/or are not projected as major franchise corner stones in the future and put together a package that will help acquire that piece which will not only be needed for this year, but probably next season as well.

If you prefer not trading Ortiz that's fine. But my preference is that we take players that are not seriously needed or relied upon currently who have value and move them so that we can help to try to complete the picture of our championship puzzle. That's all that I am saying. Maybe Ortiz is not the piece/player but he seems like it to me. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

They could keep him down all or most of next year, but I don't believe that would be wise. 

Here’s a radical idea: why don’t we just see how the guy does as he moves up the ladder?   He’s just emerging from his first significant hiccup in HiA (a 23-game stretch where he hit .182/.362/.232 from May 24 to June 22) and I expect he’ll get promoted to Bowie pretty soon and we’ll see how he does there.  Then we can worry about how fast he makes it to the majors.  I’d hope for no more hiccups that would delay a Bowie promotion or indicate struggles against higher level pitching, but you never know what’s in store.  

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

No doubt, though he's certainly cooled off the past month or so.  My point is simply that we often get too hung up over draft status and position when frequently it's at best a rough measuring stick of how a player is going to do.  Talent and ability should be the determining factor in who gets promoted and gets playing time, not draft status.  Sure, a 1st round draft pick, especially 1:1 SHOULD be in the top of an organization in talent and ability, but that isn't always the case, and sometimes that 5th rounder  (or 62nd rounder for Mike Piazza, for example) ends up being the most talented player in the organization, passing up the other higher picks.  Heck, even our Orioles HOF members weren't 1st round picks, with Eddie Murray being drafted in the 3rd round and Cal in the 2nd.  Mussina was a 1st rounder (20th overall), having been an 11th rounder 3 years prior.  

All that said, I am not sure we see Holiday up to start 2024, nor would I be surprised if we didn't see him until his rookie year for 2025 is established.  We will see. 

We should probably keep the discussion in this thread to Jordan Westburg and move Jackson Holliday talk over there.

However, if we are comparing Jackson Holliday to Joey Ortiz, I believe that the consensus of the baseball scouting community and those who evaluate talent for a living would be UTERLY and ABSOLUTELY SHOCKED if Joey Ortiz turned out to be a better player or have a better career than Jackson Holliday. Holliday is FIVE YEARS YOUNGER and IMO already a better player.

This does not mean that Ortiz will not make it or that he won't have a nice Major League career. I have no ABSOLUTELY ZERO knowledge of the future. But it is very tough to project a superstar or even an all-star career for Ortiz. I don't think that it is a leap to do the same for Holliday.

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a radical idea: why don’t we just see how the guy does as he moves up the ladder?   He’s just emerging from his first significant hiccup in HiA (a 23-game stretch where he hit .182/.362/.232 from May 24 to June 22) and I expect he’ll get promoted to Bowie pretty soon and we’ll see how he does there.  Then we can worry about how fast he makes it to the majors.  I’d hope for no more hiccups that would delay a Bowie promotion or indicate struggles against higher level pitching, but you never know what’s in store.  

I hear your suggestion and don't mean any disrespect to you, as I recognize your status as one of the longtime posters on this board. I have been been reading and learning from your post well before I ever decide to join this board and start posting, like for years.

Now it's possible that I could be reading this wrong, but I read in what you wrote a tone of dictation, almost like you are attempting to tell me what to do. That's probably not going to work well for me.

[forphase1]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

We should probably keep the discussion in this thread to Jordan Westburg and move Jackson Holliday talk over there.

However, if we are comparing Jackson Holliday to Joey Ortiz, I believe that the consensus of the baseball scouting community and those who evaluate talent for a living would be UTERLY and ABSOLUTELY SHOCKED if Joey Ortiz turned out to be a better player or have a better career than Jackson Holliday. Holliday is FIVE YEARS YOUNGER and IMO already a better player.

This does not mean that Ortiz will not make it or that he won't have a nice Major League career. I have no ABSOLUTELY ZERO knowledge of the future. But it is very tough to project a superstar or even an all-star career for Ortiz. I don't think that it is a leap to do the same for Holliday.

Yeah, I won't comment any more on this here as you are right, it's not the thread for it, but I was talking about your comparisons for how Gunnar and Holiday were on 2 different paths due to draft status, I wasn't really talking about Ortiz versus Holiday.  Draft status should matter very little in the path a player takes, the talent and ability should be the determining factor.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You make valid points and I acknowledge the validity of each of them.

I see things a little different than you. I understand that their is a risk involved with any course of action chosen. However, Elias appears to be as risk-adverse and conservative as they come when handling young players. 

From the data points that we have thus far (and even some of his comments) it appears that he prefers the one prospect at a time approach. To me that means that he is not going to have Ortiz starting right now with Westburg just coming up to the show and a place being made for him. I assume that Cowser will be next and then Kjerstad. He appears to have an affinity for Mateo based on his athletic profile for some reason.

I appreciate you taking the time to respond and acknowledge my actual arguments. That gets us mostly back on the same page. I will still say I think a lot of folks are jumping to conclusions about Elias's plans for Ortiz. I don't think Ortiz is locked into a peripheral role, it just kind of happened temporarily because he was forced onto the 40 man and the team needed him up. If the Rule 5 didn't exist, it is possible he is still in AAA accruing his 1,000 AB's on the Westburg path. I also don't think Westburg is locked in to a full time job.

I am not proposing that Ortiz come back up immediately, as Elias just sent him back down. A more likely path I see is giving Frazier and Mateo another month or two while Ortiz gets everyday playing time to see if that .900 OPS is for real. See what they are all doing in a month and what trades happens. An opportunity may emerge for Ortiz to play a significant role down the stretch or Opening Day '24. 

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I appreciate you taking the time to respond and acknowledge my actual arguments. That gets us mostly back on the same page. I will still say I think a lot of folks are jumping to conclusions about Elias's plans for Ortiz. I don't think Ortiz is locked into a peripheral role, it just kind of happened temporarily because he was forced onto the 40 man and the team needed him up. If the Rule 5 didn't exist, it is possible he is still in AAA accruing his 1,000 AB's on the Westburg path. I also don't think Westburg is locked in to a full time job.

I am not proposing that Ortiz come back up immediately, as Elias just sent him back down. A more likely path I see is giving Frazier and Mateo another month or two while Ortiz gets everyday playing time to see if that .900 OPS is for real. See what they are all doing in a month and what trades happens. An opportunity may emerge for Ortiz to play a significant role down the stretch or Opening Day '24. 

Almost anything is possible.