Kiley: What the Os need to do with this draft

[OriolesMagic83]

I hope the O's take a college pitcher.  I haven't looked at who would make sense at #17, since the O's have actually been good this year, unlike 2018-2021, where by this time of year that was all there was to look forward to.  I hate that the O's passed up many polished college pitchers in the 2nd, 3rd, and supplemental rounds.  I know we got some good position players, but those are players who will probably be blocked at the ML level anyway.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

How much NIL money is there for college baseball players?

I have no idea, to be honest, but remember being shocked by how much Angel Reese got to go to LSU, and that was before they won the national championship. For some reason, I think it was in the $600-$700 k range. It's much higher now, but she's a well known person at this point.

[deward]

On 7/5/2023 at 1:40 PM, Alasdaire said:

I want to say that pitching is possible because picking at 17 is presents a very different value proposition than picking 1-5. Because when you're at 1, 2, 5, and 1, you're guaranteed to have your choice of guys you a high degree of confidence in, which their model seems to churn out as hitters.

But that doesn't explain why they've invariably passed on pitchers with their second/third picks in years past too. Pitchers have fallen to those rounds in the past and they've chosen not to bite.

So we probably should expect a position player. Which should be fine by all of us considering how almost literally every single guy they've taken early has been a success.

They took a pitcher in the 3rd round last year, they just didn't sign him.

[Billy F-Face3]

On 7/6/2023 at 11:26 AM, Just Regular said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-mock-draft-1-0/

Kiley's old colleague Longenhagen guesses us on a Georgia high school shortstop.

He also throws some shade on the Terp guy's physicality, going for a "bowling ball" description.

The big college aces all gone well before us in his guesses.

Jonathan Mayo from MLB.com has us selecting Tommy Troy, Shortstop out of Stanford, in his latest mock draft.

Quote

17. Orioles: Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford (No. 17)
This has often been a landing spot for Florida right-hander Hurston Waldrep, the next best college arm on the board, and that could still happen. But the Orioles have a history of going college hitter in the first, albeit at the top of the round (Adley Rutschman, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser). They could also look at Schanuel and Shaw from the college group and if they wanted to look at a high school bat like they did last year, Eldridge or Mitchell could be in play.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-mock-draft-july-6?t=mlb-draft-coverage

[Billy F-Face3]

I really want a pitcher, but I think Elias and Ciolek and their staff knows what they are doing and how to evaluate players, so whatever the front office feels is the most 'sure-thing' pick they can develop, then I trust them to keep doing that, just like they did in the previous drafts.

[Alasdaire]

10 minutes ago, deward said:

They took a pitcher in the 3rd round last year, they just didn't sign him.

Sure, but that was their fifth pick in that draft and somewhere around ~80 overall.

The question I was getting at is whether now that they're at 17, they might have to open up their board because all of their favorite hitters could be gone. But given that good pitchers fell to them in past years when they were picking toward the top of the next rounds and they still went with hitters (2019 Gunnar at ~40, 2020 Westburg/Haskin in the 30s, 2022 Norby at ~40), it seems like they just like hitters more than pitchers.

[2001OriolesFan]

On 7/4/2023 at 1:10 PM, CharmCityHokie said:

I agree we desperately need pitching in the system, but if it's not there I hope they don't force it. I don't want to take a Cody Sedlock just because he's a pitcher when you could have Will Smith who went 4 spots later. Obviously that's cherry-picking and the draft is a crap shoot, but they've been successful so far even if their picks initially make me raise an eyebrow, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. 

So what you do if you have pick #1002 and the guy you want is ranked as pick #1007  is.  Draft him and offer the bonus money for pick # 1005.

 

He is happy because he got more money. 

You are happy because you got the guy you wanted at the right price. 

You are happy because you saved some bonus money that you can throw at a 4th round HS kid to convince him to take the money and go pro.

You are REAL happy because you would never have been able to draft that HS kid  because he would have gone in the 1st round next year and you won't have the pick to get him.

 

This is they system. IT is not the NFL.

Edited July 8, 2023 by 2001OriolesFan

[CharmCityHokie]

6 hours ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

So what you do if you have pick #1002 and the guy you want is ranked as pick #1007  is.  Draft him and offer the bonus money for pick # 1005.

 

He is happy because he got more money. 

You are happy because you got the guy you wanted at the right price. 

You are happy because you saved some bonus money that you can throw at a 4th round HS kid to convince him to take the money and go pro.

You are REAL happy because you would never have been able to draft that HS kid  because he would have gone in the 1st round next year and you won't have the pick to get him.

 

This is they system. IT is not the NFL.

I think you may have misinterpreted what my comment was saying, or maybe I'm reading your response incorrectly. I understand how the draft works (I don't pay any attention to the NFL, NBA or any other sport). I'm simply saying don't draft for need. If the guy at #1007 is who they want, take him. What I was trying to express was don't just draft pitching for the sake of drafting a pitcher because we are short on pitching in the system; if a position player who has a better probability of being an impact player is also available, that's who they should take.

[Il BuonO]

On 7/4/2023 at 10:55 AM, Moose Milligan said:

Pitching. 

I had agreed with you until recently. They now have a surplus of middle INF types (Westburg, Ortiz) from which to trade. Buying the pitching could be a thing they do. 

I’d argue there’s a way to keep them both, but not while upgrading the rotation. 
 

That said, it would be nice to get a top arm for a change.

[2001OriolesFan]

14 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I think you may have misinterpreted what my comment was saying, or maybe I'm reading your response incorrectly. I understand how the draft works (I don't pay any attention to the NFL, NBA or any other sport). I'm simply saying don't draft for need. If the guy at #1007 is who they want, take him. What I was trying to express was don't just draft pitching for the sake of drafting a pitcher because we are short on pitching in the system; if a position player who has a better probability of being an impact player is also available, that's who they should take.

Well, we will have to disagree.

With the overslot/underslot strategy we get a pretty sure signing of a pitcher who has a slightly lower ranking than our draft pick. We can even give a slight overpayment to him compared to where his conscensis ranking was, so we can be pretty sure that he signs. ..... IN ADDITION, we get to make an "offer you can't refuse" by an overslot payment (? $ 1 million ?) to a HS arm who was planning on going to college.  He figured he would be a 1st round pick in two years and get a million or more money then going pro right away.  The ORIOLES would NOT be able to draft him then- we  have a good W/L record and would not have a high enough draft pick. BUT we found a way to get this high ceiling guy.

We wind up with a decent value on that underslot pitcher AND a young high ceiling pitcher that we otherwise would NEVER get into the farm system.

Your plan gets us a redundant position player, (say a SS) who will never see the MLB field in an Orioles uniform.  AND a lower ceiling later pick, who is available right now .

 

overslot/underslot allows you to trade time-to-MLB for higher ceiling prospects.

 

[emmett16]

On 7/7/2023 at 7:38 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

I could see us going Taylor the 3B from TCU with our first pick. Then Cooper Pratt the HS SS with one of our next two picks.  The NCAA OF Alderman could be in play as well. I’d be really happy if those were our first three picks. 

1. Brayden Taylor L/R 3B TCU 21 - Just turned 21. Cape Cod All Star. Played for team USA. Seems similar to Cowser. Good LH swing and bat to ball skills. Needs to tap into his power. 
 

1B. Cooper Pratt R/R SS HS 18 - 6’4”. Similar to Gunnar. They sky is the limit. Why risk a HS SS with pick #1 when the draft is loaded.  Go NCAA bat and HS SS after.  

2. Kemp Alderman R/R OF Ole Miss 20 - 6’3” 250. A big dude with high exit velocities.  Plus arm. Throws 94 from the mound. 
 

Taylor is also viewed as the 3rd best NCAA bat in the draft behind only Crews and Langford. That’s great value at 17. 

I think Alderman’s lack of a defensive positions keeps him off our board.  He’s passable in the OF but barley avg.  He stayed at my friends house the summer he played for Bethesda Big train.  Heck of a nice kid - I’d be stoked if they picked him, but I think his defensive shortcomings might make him unattractive to our FO. 

[btdart20]

I want Yo-yo Morales.

But wouldn’t be shocked with Aiden Miller, Nimmala, or Chase Davis if any of them are still on the board.

[emmett16]

I want them to take the local kid.  Big boy power and a pitcher.  The American Ohtani.  Kid is fun to watch.  

[Billy F-Face3]

I'm just along for the ride. I'm not going to make any bold statements about what player I want, because the Front Office are much more educated about these players and their development strategy than I am.

I'm just going to sit back and enjoy learning about our new Orioles minor leaguers.

[Just Regular]

Will the 1st rounder crack the Top 10 tonight?

I feel like most Clubs offseason lists, Over Under for the recent 1st rounders placement is about #4.