Where the Orioles sit with WAA

[25 Nuggets]

From Baseball Reference:

WAA, which stands for Wins Above Average, is a statistical measure that defines a player's worth in terms of his contribution as compared to the average major league player. WAA is strongly correlated to team performance, that is the sum of WAA by all of a team's players will almost always represent its final record.

Three teams in the majors are running away from the field in the WAA race - they are unsurprisingly the Braves, Rays and Rangers.

We should know by now that the Orioles are outperforming their runs scored/runs given number in the W-L column.  They are seventh in the majors in team WAA, in a cluster with Minnesota, Toronto, Houston, Arizona, Boston, LA and San Diego.

Here is where they rate by position as of the All Star Break, which is what I want to show in the thread.

PITCHING - 13th (+0.7) / POSITIONAL - 8th (+4.0)

SP - 17th (-0.4):  Gibson, Kremer, Wells, Bradish, Rodriguez, Irvin, Akin

RP - 5th (+1.1):  Baumann, Bautista, Baker, Coulombe, Cano, Perez, Voth, Akin, Gillaspie, Zimmermann, Givens, Vespi, Irvin, Garrett, Bazardo, Wells, Vallimont, McKenna, Lester, Hall

C - 9th (+0.3):  Rutschman, McCann, Bemboom

1B - 17th (-0.5):  Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Urias, Santander, Lester

2B - 10th (+0.4):  Frazier, Urias, Westburg, Ortiz, Vavra

3B - 6th (+1.1):  Henderson, Urias, Westburg, Ortiz, Lester, Vavra

SS - 13th (+0.5):  Mateo, Henderson, Ortiz

LF - 6th (+0.8):  Hays, McKenna, Vavra, Stowers, Hicks, Cowser, Santander, Frazier, O'Hearn

CF - 9th (+1.1):  Mullins, Hicks, McKenna, Hays, Cowser

RF - 17th (-0.1):  Santander, McKenna, Vavra, O'Hearn, Stowers, Hays, Frazier, Hicks, Cowser

DH - 5th (+0.4):  Santander, Rutschman, O'Hearn, Henderson, Mountcastle, McCann, Hicks, Mullins, Lester, Urias, Hays, Vavra, Frazier, McKenna

PH  - 10th (0.0):  McKenna, Frazier, O'Hearn, Vavra, Urias, Henderson, Rutschman, Mullins, Ortiz, McCann, Lester, Stowers, Mountcastle, Hicks, Westburg, Santander, Mateo, Hays

[Filmstudy]

1 hour ago, 25 Nuggets said:

From Baseball Reference:

WAA, which stands for Wins Above Average, is a statistical measure that defines a player's worth in terms of his contribution as compared to the average major league player. WAA is strongly correlated to team performance, that is the sum of WAA by all of a team's players will almost always represent its final record.

Three teams in the majors are running away from the field in the WAA race - they are unsurprisingly the Braves, Rays and Rangers.

We should know by now that the Orioles are outperforming their runs scored/runs given number in the W-L column.  They are seventh in the majors in team WAA, in a cluster with Minnesota, Toronto, Houston, Arizona, Boston, LA and San Diego.

Here is where they rate by position as of the All Star Break, which is what I want to show in the thread.

PITCHING - 13th (+0.7) / POSITIONAL - 8th (+4.0)

SP - 17th (-0.4):  Gibson, Kremer, Wells, Bradish, Rodriguez, Irvin, Akin

RP - 5th (+1.1):  Baumann, Bautista, Baker, Coulombe, Cano, Perez, Voth, Akin, Gillaspie, Zimmermann, Givens, Vespi, Irvin, Garrett, Bazardo, Wells, Vallimont, McKenna, Lester, Hall

C - 9th (+0.3):  Rutschman, McCann, Bemboom

1B - 17th (-0.5):  Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Urias, Santander, Lester

2B - 10th (+0.4):  Frazier, Urias, Westburg, Ortiz, Vavra

3B - 6th (+1.1):  Henderson, Urias, Westburg, Ortiz, Lester, Vavra

SS - 13th (+0.5):  Mateo, Henderson, Ortiz

LF - 6th (+0.8):  Hays, McKenna, Vavra, Stowers, Hicks, Cowser, Santander, Frazier, O'Hearn

CF - 9th (+1.1):  Mullins, Hicks, McKenna, Hays, Cowser

RF - 17th (-0.1):  Santander, McKenna, Vavra, O'Hearn, Stowers, Hays, Frazier, Hicks, Cowser

DH - 5th (+0.4):  Santander, Rutschman, O'Hearn, Henderson, Mountcastle, McCann, Hicks, Mullins, Lester, Urias, Hays, Vavra, Frazier, McKenna

PH  - 10th (0.0):  McKenna, Frazier, O'Hearn, Vavra, Urias, Henderson, Rutschman, Mullins, Ortiz, McCann, Lester, Stowers, Mountcastle, Hicks, Westburg, Santander, Mateo, Hays

The Orioles are outplaying their WAA and pythag despite the recent blowouts.

Looking at the list by position, C is the biggest disappointment with Adley down to .511 from .533 last season.  On the other hand, what's nice is the Orioles don't have a glaring hole either with -0.5 the worst.  Just a guess...I don't think there are many teams where every position group fits on [-0.5, +1.1] of WAA (or a pro-rata of that over a whole season).  That's exceptionally balanced.

[Frobby]

What I see there is a team without a significant weakness.   17th is our worst ranking in any category.  At the same time, we are not elite anywhere, but solidly above average in most places.   

In a way, it’s the hardest type of team to significantly upgrade, because there’s no place where we could improve from terrible to average or slightly above with a move.  But, it’s a nicely balanced team.  
 

[Just Regular]

And thus even if Elias has a package that is to the taste of Jordan Montgomery or Lucas Giolito's GM, I think due diligence probably entails making danged sure Max Scherzer or Blake Snell or Shohei Ohtani isn't moving in case that same package gets you 80% of the way to the bigger fish.

And then I don't care about adding Drew Rom to close.

The other thought I've had to those who lived it is how does this group compare with the '64-'65 group before Frank got here?

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

What I see there is a team without a significant weakness.   17th is our worst ranking in any category.  At the same time, we are not elite anywhere, but solidly above average in most places.   

In a way, it’s the hardest type of team to significantly upgrade, because there’s no place where we could improve from terrible to average or slightly above with a move.  But, it’s a nicely balanced team.  
 

But going from average or slightly above to well above average could mean a lot, especially in the playoffs. 

[dystopia]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

What I see there is a team without a significant weakness.   17th is our worst ranking in any category.  At the same time, we are not elite anywhere, but solidly above average in most places.   

In a way, it’s the hardest type of team to significantly upgrade, because there’s no place where we could improve from terrible to average or slightly above with a move.  But, it’s a nicely balanced team.  
 

The clear need with this team is relief pitching.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But going from average or slightly above to well above average could mean a lot, especially in the playoffs. 

Sure.  I’m just saying it’s easier (and cheaper) to acquire a decent player to replace a lousy one, than it is to acquire a very good player to replace a decent one.   The amount of improvement from each move might be the same, but the latter is more expensive and harder to pull off.  But the O’s don’t really have “easy” improvements to make by filling gaping holes.   Their improvement is going to need to come from getting some really good players to replace decent ones, for the most part. 

[Osornot]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

What I see there is a team without a significant weakness.   17th is our worst ranking in any category.  At the same time, we are not elite anywhere, but solidly above average in most places.   

In a way, it’s the hardest type of team to significantly upgrade, because there’s no place where we could improve from terrible to average or slightly above with a move.  But, it’s a nicely balanced team.  
 

Thank you to the OP for the time, efforts and comments.  I agree with Frobby now but what SG says (playoffs) is my main concern, especially pitching.  Either way, I look at 55-35 and will enjoy. I love analysis and predictions in baseball can be thrown out the window based on so many factors

 

[Filmstudy]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure.  I’m just saying it’s easier (and cheaper) to acquire a decent player to replace a lousy one, than it is to acquire a very good player to replace a decent one.   The amount of improvement from each move might be the same, but the latter is more expensive and harder to pull off.  But the O’s don’t really have “easy” improvements to make by filling gaping holes.   Their improvement is going to need to come from getting some really good players to replace decent ones, for the most part. 

This is for sure true.  Having a big hole is the best way to have a really impactful trade.  The Orioles don't have a Todd Cruz circa 1983 to replace, but the last middle reliever or starter is weak.

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by Filmstudy

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Filmstudy said:

This is for sure true.  Having a big hole is the best way to have a really impactful trade.  The Orioles don't have a Todd Cruz circa 1983 to replace, but the last middle reliever or starter is weak.

 

I think this is something that people need to consider.

Barring some incredible collapse, the Orioles (as constructed) are making the playoffs.

We don’t need to make drastic moves or something like that to get into the playoffs.  People on here are focused on middle relief. Why? How many middle relievers are going to be used in the playoffs, outside of a blow out?

Basically, we will rely on 3-4 starters and 5-6 relievers.

The point of this trading deadline, for the Os, is to improve on those 10 or so pitchers. 

[foxfield]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think this is something that people need to consider.

Barring some incredible collapse, the Orioles (as constructed) are making the playoffs.

We don’t need to make drastic moves or something like that to get into the playoffs.  People on here are focused on middle relief. Why? How many middle relievers are going to be used in the playoffs, outside of a blow out?

Basically, we will rely on 3-4 starters and 5-6 relievers.

The point of this trading deadline, for the Os, is to improve on those 10 or so pitchers. 

I think this is spot on.  This is a great thread and highlights something we all know. The Orioles are very good but function as a sum of parts.  They are not really dominant at anything.

What it is going to take to increase our chances of a deep run in 23 is one or two top end relievers AND probably is going to take one of the very good players or more to have strong improvement in the second half.

I just don't think the TOR or Frank Robinson type unicorn we all want is available.

But it might already be here.

Edited July 15, 2023 by foxfield

[zweem]

They are dominant in ,what should be a separate category, -and subtracted from the RP category--- 8th and 9th inning stoppers.

Sorry it's not worded better, but high leverage RP is different and separate from plain , old "RP".

[Just Regular]

Even though the rotation has been sturdy and Felix Bautista is Barry Bonds influencing the team RP stats, I think there is still plenty of low hanging fruit on the back of the pitching staff.

It is about right that in a 3-game playoff series, you are probably using 7-8 pitchers, and 9-10 in a 5-game series.

Today, Bautista and Wells are two that I feel confident are of that caliber, and Bradish and Kremer are trending well.     Nobody get too precious about Kyle Gibson or Danny Coulombe, even though they are capable pros having useful regular seasons.     What's Yennier Cano's strikeout rate going to be this month?

I believe if you must you can gear Grayson Rodriguez down to 30 pitch chunks and, screw it, just tell them what's coming.