How Orioles Rookies Have Performed in 2023

[ArtVanDelay]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Nothing is over.

[wildcard]

I like the idea of Gunnar, Westburg, Ortiz and Urias as the infielders to begin next year.   Frazier and Mateo gone.   Then we wait to see Holliday at some point.

[terpoh]

I can think of at least two hit balls where Colton has been robbed defensively. I know that happens to everyone, but two hits in his sample size change a lot statistically. There was also the ball in Minnesota where he was ruled out running down the line "out of the base line" which should've been another hit. With 23 at bats, 2-3 outs turned hits or vice versa have a pretty significant impact. 

 

[johnrambo]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You do know that even "Veteran big leaguers" can and often do show wild variances in performance from one year to the other right?

Cal's a great example since he had so many seasons at 161-162 games.

His rWAR dropped by 7.4 between 1991-1992.  If you want to say it was because he was over 30 he dropped 10.0 to 5.6 from 1984-1985.

Lots of guys just have a random down year or career years that they never get close to again.

 

Interesting post. Ripken went like 10 straight years with an OPS+ over 100 as an all time great defensive shortstop. First ballot HOFer. Not saying everybody has to be Ripken. Also understand that the only way to develop rookies and get acclimated to MLB is to throw them in the fire and let them learn. At the same time though, we are a team with a cheap owner who doesnt like to spend. When the window opens (its open now) we can't afford to say well we will worry about maximizing wins in 5 plus years. We need to win games now. Strike while the iron is hot. We are in a situation where we dont spend money. So when you have established big leaguers playing well it's hard to bench them for rookies who will likely be worse. That's why I prefer to have one rookie in the lineup or rotation at a time. 

[Billy F-Face3]

10 hours ago, geschinger said:

What do you see with Westburg that makes you think All-Star potential but not Ortiz or Cowser?  I look at all three and their offensive production in AAA and it's very similar.  I'm not ready to say any of them have all-star potential but I do think all three would have better than even odds of being more productivethan Mateo or Urias if given a few hundred ABs. Why prolong the inevitable instead of getting them those ABs now?  

I never said that Ortiz or Cowser didn't have All Star potential. You're jumping to conclusions. Just because I compliment one player, does not mean I take away from another. (Cowser especially has All Star potential in him.) Rather, what you might be reading into is that I think Westburg has the biggest chance of all, or that chance to reach the All Star accolade quicker than his peer rookies. Here's why...

Westburg had alot more seasoning at the AAA level. He has 714 Plate Appearances which is well more than double of what either Ortiz or Cowser has been able to get. Realy, with how long Westburg was mashing in AAA, there was nothing else for him to do there. He was ready for a new challenge. Because of this, I see him being alot more comfortable at the plate and he's been getting more base hits compared to any of the other position players that had been called up in 2023.

Ortiz AAA number of Plate Appearance: 323 Cowser AAA number of Plate Appearances: 381 Westburg AAA number of Plate Appearances: 714 with .899 OPS, 36 HRs, 128 RBIs,   Jordan Westburg also has much better initial results in a similar sample size as his peers. So far at the MLB level, Westburg has started his MLB career with a .717 OPS with 6 RBIs. Just for perspective, an .800 OPS is considered the threshold for being very good. So based on all of that, as well as the eye test with his defense, I think Westburg has the probability (for success) of becoming an All Star sooner than his teammates. He simply has more development and is ahead of the curve at this point in time.

[Billy F-Face3]

11 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

Good defense? I do like the OBP but it is night and day when Cowser is in CF instead of Cedric. 

He hasn't made a single error. And I don't know of many player, if any, that are better Center-fielders than Cedric. I'm not sure why it's assumed that I was taking anything away from Cedric just because I complimented Colton Cowser.

[Billy F-Face3]

I'm also of the mindset that Cowser is better placed as a corner outfielder than he is a CFer.

[geschinger]

35 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Westburg had alot more seasoning at the AAA level. He has 714 Plate Appearances which is well more than double of what either Ortiz or Cowser has been able to get. Realy, with how long Westburg was mashing in AAA, there was nothing else for him to do there. He was ready for a new challenge. Because of this, I see him being alot more comfortable at the plate and he's been getting more base hits compared to any of the other position players that had been called up in 2023.

Ortiz AAA number of Plate Appearance: 323 Cowser AAA number of Plate Appearances: 381 Westburg AAA number of Plate Appearances: 714 with .899 OPS, 36 HRs, 128 RBIs,

Since their offensive production is so similar, If it all comes down to plate appearances?  How many plate appearances would we have to give players like Ortiz, Cowser now and down the line Kjerstad, Holliday when he gets there etc...  for you to be comfortable they've done enough at AAA if they are putting up big numbers?  

I think all three (JW/CC/JO)  have already shown enough that they have better than even odds at outproducing the players we are putting out there and I think we're a much better team in September if those guys all had ~120 MLB ABs under their belt by then.  But I understand there are differences of opinion on what the threshold for being ready might be and I while I don't like it, I can at least understand why the org would be so incredibly risk-averse considering where the team is in the standings.

[Billy F-Face3]

2 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Since their offensive production is so similar, If it all comes down to plate appearances?  How many plate appearances would we have to give players like Ortiz, Cowser now and down the line Kjerstad, Holliday when he gets there etc...  for you to be comfortable they've done enough at AAA if they are putting up big numbers? 

13 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

If I was running the organization, for the moment, I would be focusing on Westburg getting acclimated and up & running in the Big Leagues.

With Cowser, he flew through the minor leagues so fast that I think it might be beneficial to him and the organization if he had seasoned a little bit more in AAA until Westburg is up and running, then once Westburg got really going it could be the right time to call up Cowser. And so on and so forth through the organization.

I just don't like keeping these guys on the bench too much. They learn through muscle memory and that takes getting consistent game reps and plate appearances. And in order to minimize risk at the big league level, I think it's better to focus on getting one rookie at a time comfortable.

It's been core Vets (and sophmores) that have been the catalysts to the winning streaks while the rookies figure things out to the best of their ability.

 

 

[johnrambo]

7 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Since their offensive production is so similar, If it all comes down to plate appearances?  How many plate appearances would we have to give players like Ortiz, Cowser now and down the line Kjerstad, Holliday when he gets there etc...  for you to be comfortable they've done enough at AAA if they are putting up big numbers?  

I think all three (JW/CC/JO)  have already shown enough that they have better than even odds at outproducing the players we are putting out there and I think we're a much better team in September if those guys all had ~120 MLB ABs under their belt by then.  But I understand there are differences of opinion on what the threshold for being ready might be and I while I don't like it, I can at least understand why the org would be so incredibly risk-averse considering where the team is in the standings.

It's difficult to sacrifice wins in the middle of the playoff push. I just cant sit Hays and Santandar right now and have a rookie come in and be a big downgrade. I get it. Cowser has fans. I like him too. But I just cant bench Hays and Santandar to get the young rook some ABs. Same with Ortiz, Grayson, etc. If they produce like Gunnar and Westburg keep them in. But the leash is real short being in a playoff push. I just cant be like bench better than league average hitters because prospect status. 

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

Good defense? I do like the OBP but it is night and day when Cowser is in CF instead of Cedric. 

I’m not making any judgments based on a few games, but I agree that Cowser has not played well in CF so far.  

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, johnrambo said:

It's difficult to sacrifice wins in the middle of the playoff push. I just cant sit Hays and Santandar right now and have a rookie come in and be a big downgrade. I get it. Cowser has fans. I like him too. But I just cant bench Hays and Santandar to get the young rook some ABs. Same with Ortiz, Grayson, etc. If they produce like Gunnar and Westburg keep them in. But the leash is real short being in a playoff push. I just cant be like bench better than league average hitters because prospect status. 

I think Ortiz should have gotten more of a chance before, taking sone of Mateo’s playing time.  But now that Westburg is up, I agree there’s only so many players they can juggle.  

[johnrambo]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Ortiz should have gotten more of a chance before, taking sone of Mateo’s playing time.  But now that Westburg is up, I agree there’s only so many players they can juggle.  

Ortiz had a sub .500 OPS. Granted very small sample size and you cant render proper judgement after limited PAs. But his offensive production (or rather lack of it) just cannot go on. We are a game back of the Rays. I know that Ortiz has a lot of fans. But the bat just wasnt getting it done. It sucks for these guys who werent given every day ABs and allowed the continually fail and improve. But right now being a game back we simply cannot endure the bat Ortiz was providing. And I'm beginning to think the same thing about Mateo. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, johnrambo said:

Ortiz had a sub .500 OPS. Granted very small sample size and you cant render proper judgement after limited PAs. But his offensive production (or rather lack of it) just cannot go on. We are a game back of the Rays. I know that Ortiz has a lot of fans. But the bat just wasnt getting it done. 

And Mateo was getting it done?   He has a .405 OPS since May 1.   So I’d like to have given more of his PA to Ortiz and see if he could do better than he did in his very limited playing time.   Taking at bats from guys like Santander and Hays is a different story.  

[johnrambo]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

And Mateo was getting it done?   He has a .405 OPS since May 1.   So I’d like to have given more of his PA to Ortiz and see if he could do better than he did in his very limited playing time.   Taking at bats from guys like Santander and Hays is a different story.  

Disagree. Slide Henderson over to SS and take Ortiz and Mateos bat completely out of the lineup. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by johnrambo