What is a single World Series victory worth?

[Greg Pappas]

Bear with me...Here's a hypothetical situation: If a World Series title in 2023 was assured (by God, an angel, other deity, etc.) provided that you dealt our Top 5 prospects (still remaining in the minors) and only received rental players in return, would you do it? 

Therefore, essentially we would lose Holliday, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Mayo, Basallo and gain a banner forever.

A silly premise perhaps, but I wonder how far some would go to get that flag. Is that flag worth losing those players for six seasons each? 

For the record, I wouldn't do it.

Edited July 22, 2023 by Greg Pappas

[Bemorewins]

So it appears that the purpose of the question is to ask if some fans want to "nuke" our future to ensure success this season?

My question to you is why does that have to be the case? Why do we have to live in a world with such extremes of all or nothing? Can we find a balance between maintaining a healthy future for our org for the longer term and trying to meaningfully add to our Major League team as we pursue trying improve our chances to win a title by acquiring necessary talent?

No my answer to the question is an obvious NO. But I don't think we need to force ourselves into such an extreme proposition.

Also, I have not seen Ortiz evaluated anywhere as a higher rated prospect than Cowser. As always, I could be wrong. But can you show me (post a link) to where that information is coming from?

[FlipTheBird]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

So it appears that the purpose of the question is to ask if some fans want to "nuke" our future to ensure success this season?

My question to you is why does that have to be the case? Why do we have to live in a world with such extremes of all or nothing? Can we find a balance between maintaining a healthy future for our org for the longer term and trying to meaningfully add to our Major League team as we pursue trying improve our chances to win a title by acquiring necessary talent?

No my answer to the question is an obvious NO. But I don't think we need to force ourselves into such an extreme proposition.

Also, I have not seen Ortiz evaluated anywhere as a higher rated prospect than Cowser. As always, I could be wrong. But can you show me (post a link) to where that information is coming from?

I believe the OP’s question was pretty straight-forward: What would we as fans be willing to sacrifice if it truly meant a guaranteed 2023 WS win? Nothing else. No need to pontificate on other scenarios.

The organization of course isn’t going to clean house, because there’s no such thing as a real world guarantee. So all the question is meant to cover is “If there WAS, where would you draw the line?”

To provide an actual answer: If a higher power guaranteed it, send it. Take the title. Raise the banner.

[Billy F-Face3]

Ask what some Cubs fans and Red Sox fans would have given to see just 1 world series in their lifetimes during all the 100 years they waited. I think you might find the answer to this question is not as simple as yes or no.

This is the 40th diversionary of the previous World Series Championship that the Orioles have achieved. There are probably a majority of Orioles fans who have never seen them win a Championship in their lives. And to do it on the 40th anniversary adds another layer of 'special' to complicate the decision.

[Frobby]

Tough question.   We’d probably have a good team for at least 2-4 years after this one even if we traded that group, so I don’t see this an a situation where we’d hang a banner and then instantly suck. So, I’d say in your hypothetical world, it might be worth it.   But I wouldn’t do it in the “instantly suck” scenario, nor am I generally interested in doing anything like this in the real world where our odds of winning a WS might be significantly improved but not even remotely guaranteed.  

[Billy F-Face3]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

Ask what some Cubs fans and Red Sox fans would have given to see just 1 world series in their lifetimes during all the 100 years they waited. I think you might find the answer to this question is not as simple as yes or no.

This is the 40th diversionary of the previous World Series Championship that the Orioles have achieved. There are probably a majority of Orioles fans who have never seen them win a Championship in their lives. And to do it on the 40th anniversary adds another layer of 'special' to complicate the decision.

40th anniversary.

[Filmstudy]

14 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Bear with me...Here's a hypothetical situation: If a World Series title in 2023 was assured (by God, an angel, other deity, etc.) provided that you dealt our Top 5 prospects (still remaining in the minors) and only received rental players in return, would you do it? 

Therefore, essentially we would lose Holliday, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Mayo, Basallo and gain a banner forever.

A silly premise perhaps, but I wonder how far some would go to get that flag. Is that flag worth losing those players for six seasons each? 

For the record, I wouldn't do it.

I personally like the thought experiment.

As a Ravens season ticket holder, I would absolutely hate if they adopted the Rams' philosophy, trading every 1st-round pick and nuking their cap to play the roller-coaster parity win.  I even hate the fact the Rams made it work once since the cries for the Ravens to do so continue.

I'd apply the same to baseball, where I no longer have season tickets and go to perhaps 12-15 games a year and watch the rest.  I don't want years of walking through the desert in exchange for a single flag.  The team should be competitive for years, particularly if the front office can be maintained.  There is good chance their expected WS wins is less than 1 over the next 5-7 years, but I prefer to enjoy the ride.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

I believe the OP’s question was pretty straight-forward: What would we as fans be willing to sacrifice if it truly meant a guaranteed 2023 WS win? Nothing else. No need to pontificate on other scenarios.

The organization of course isn’t going to clean house, because there’s no such thing as a real world guarantee. So all the question is meant to cover is “If there WAS, where would you draw the line?”

To provide an actual answer: If a higher power guaranteed it, send it. Take the title. Raise the banner.

The reason that I asked those questions to the OP because IMO the subtext that I believe informs some fans opinions in terms of fearfulness to make trades is that they believe it is an "all or nothing" proposition. That if we trade any prospects of consequence, it will somehow destroy the promising future that we appear to be headed for.

But I don't view things in this manner. IMO we don't have to give up future cornerstone franchise pieces in order to acquire players who can improve our chances of being successful this Fall.

Also, because he mentioned Ortiz (and I forgot to mention Basallo) ahead of Cowser and Westburg, I was curious as to the source of the info derived because I hadn't see/read/heard that evaluation before.

[Sydnor]

23 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

So it appears that the purpose of the question is to ask if some fans want to "nuke" our future to ensure success this season?

My question to you is why does that have to be the case? Why do we have to live in a world with such extremes of all or nothing? Can we find a balance between maintaining a healthy future for our org for the longer term and trying to meaningfully add to our Major League team as we pursue trying improve our chances to win a title by acquiring necessary talent?

No my answer to the question is an obvious NO. But I don't think we need to force ourselves into such an extreme proposition.

Also, I have not seen Ortiz evaluated anywhere as a higher rated prospect than Cowser. As always, I could be wrong. But can you show me (post a link) to where that information is coming from?

Keith Law ranked Ortiz 6th in the system and Cowser 7th coming into the season. Also coming into the season, Longenhagen (Fangraphs) had Ortiz 6th in the system and Cowser 12th.

https://theathletic.com/4144809/2023/02/07/orioles-top-20-prospect-farm-system-ranked/?source=user_shared_article

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-38-prospects-2023/

Edited July 22, 2023 by Sydnor

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Tough question.   We’d probably have a good team for at least 2-4 years after this one even if we traded that group, so I don’t see this an a situation where we’d hang a banner and then instantly suck. So, I’d say in your hypothetical world, it might be worth it.   But I wouldn’t do it in the “instantly suck” scenario, nor am I generally interested in doing anything like this in the real world where our odds of winning a WS might be significantly improved but not even remotely guaranteed.  

Right.  I don’t think it nukes the teams future.   Not one of those guys is contributing to this years good team.   Of course it would hurt but for a guaranteed WS I would do it and still have Elias in charge looking for the next Basallo, Ortiz, and Kjerstad.   We’d still have Henderson, Rutschman, Westburg, and Cowser.   Still have Norby, Fabian, Beavers.   Still have this years draft class and our last J2 classes.    Sign me up!

[e16bball]

I was born in 1985. In nearly 40 years of fandom, the pinnacle for me has been two soul-crushing (for different reasons) ALCS defeats. 

And you’re telling me that I can guarantee myself the joy of a WS championship — and all the incredible moments and memories on the way to securing the title — if I trade away five MIL guys that I’ve basically never even seen play? I’ll be able to watch a team with Adley, Gunnar, Cedric, Austin, Tony Taters, Cowser, Westburg, Felix, Grayson, and the rest of the gang hoist the trophy…and I’ll have all of them back next year to do it again, with the cachet of a banner and one of the lowest payrolls in the sport to make us players in FA?

Bring me the contract. I’ll sign it in blood.

Edited July 22, 2023 by e16bball

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

I personally like the thought experiment.

As a Ravens season ticket holder, I would absolutely hate if they adopted the Rams' philosophy, trading every 1st-round pick and nuking their cap to play the roller-coaster parity win.  I even hate the fact the Rams made it work once since the cries for the Ravens to do so continue.

I'd apply the same to baseball, where I no longer have season tickets and go to perhaps 12-15 games a year and watch the rest.  I don't want years of walking through the desert in exchange for a single flag.  The team should be competitive for years, particularly if the front office can be maintained.  There is good chance their expected WS wins is less than 1 over the next 5-7 years, but I prefer to enjoy the ride.

I have heard you brilliantly articulate this point about the Ravens many times before and for the most part I agree with it. But IMO the results of the last few years had shown that the Ravens were at a place of stagnation and the curve was going the wrong way, which had caused some fans to get frustrated. 

It's one thing to make it close to the championship and lose year after year in close games (like the Ravens had done from 08- 11). But what we had from 19-22 was a situation that was growing stale and stagnant. And as a result the Ravens pivoted from that approach IMO wisely because it was bound to begin to effect their bottom line and org morale. They had to make some coaching and personnel changes as a result.

With the Orioles, we are just heading in to what we all hope is a period of prosperity and yearly competitiveness for our franchise. But if after say, 3-4 seasons of not making meaningful additions by trade or offseason signings AND we are not getting close to the ultimate prize (like the Ravens hadn't for the last 3 years) then it will produce some friction within the fanbase.

My worse fear for the Orioles is that we follow a strict Rays model (even if we get similar on-field results) because what I fear is irrelevance and apathy as a reaction in the community. The Rays many times can't even sell out playoff games. I know part of it is due to the stadium and it's location. But I also believe that part of it is due to the fact that people in their community/potential fans do not view them as relevant because they will always be good, but will never do what it takes to be good enough. The Padres (not suggesting that we spend like them) have seen a tremendous escalation in fan attendance/interest and relevance in their community since their new ownership. They weren't drawing like they are now even when they had Tony Gwen and went to the World Series. I believe that it is because the people in that community feel like the ownership is committed to the success of that franchise trying to win championships.

That is the BIG DIFFERENCE for me in terms of the Ravens and Orioles. I as a community resident and paying customer am confident that the Ravens are committed to winning championship (even if we now most seasons that it won't work out). The Orioles on the other hand, I have serious doubts as to whether that is even a primary goal of their ownership. I'm holding on to hope that something will change (hopefully a forced sale of the team). But I have no confidence in the Angeloses like I do in Bisciotti.

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

Keith Law ranked Ortiz 6th in the system and Cowser 7th coming into the season. Also coming into the season, Longenhagen (Fangraphs) had Ortiz 6th in the system and Cowser 12th.

https://theathletic.com/4144809/2023/02/07/orioles-top-20-prospect-farm-system-ranked/?source=user_shared_article

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-38-prospects-2023/

Gotcha, thanks. I knew about law really liking Basallo. But didn't know that he like Ortiz more than Cowser. 

Agree with him or not, you have to give it to him because he is not afraid to go against the grain.

And to the going into the season stuff, that's not as relevant now, going into the season Mayo nor Kjerstad were ranked nearly as high as they are now. Things change from offseason to season and from one season to the next.

[FlipTheBird]

18 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The reason that I asked those questions to the OP because IMO the subtext that I believe informs some fans opinions in terms of fearfulness to make trades is that they believe it is an "all or nothing" proposition. That if we trade any prospects of consequence, it will somehow destroy the promising future that we appear to be headed for.

But I don't view things in this manner. IMO we don't have to give up future cornerstone franchise pieces in order to acquire players who can improve our chances of being successful this Fall.

Also, because he mentioned Ortiz (and I forgot to mention Basallo) ahead of Cowser and Westburg, I was curious as to the source of the info derived because I hadn't see/read/heard that evaluation before.

It’s a hypothetical based on a literally impossible scenario. Divine intervention. Lighten up.

And the OP makes clear that the prospects going would be guys not actively on the 26-man roster. Hence Ortiz and Basallo being among the 5.

[Greg Pappas]

37 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

So it appears that the purpose of the question is to ask if some fans want to "nuke" our future to ensure success this season?

My question to you is why does that have to be the case? Why do we have to live in a world with such extremes of all or nothing? Can we find a balance between maintaining a healthy future for our org for the longer term and trying to meaningfully add to our Major League team as we pursue trying improve our chances to win a title by acquiring necessary talent?

No my answer to the question is an obvious NO. But I don't think we need to force ourselves into such an extreme proposition.

Also, I have not seen Ortiz evaluated anywhere as a higher rated prospect than Cowser. As always, I could be wrong. But can you show me (post a link) to where that information is coming from?

I clearly stated that those were the prospects remaining in the minors. Cowser is not. The purpose was transparent.  I would not be surprised at all that some would agree to it because in their eyes future years are not as important as a banner.