It was driving me nuts

[maybenxtyr]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

People are underthinking this.

Most people don't care.

 

They don't structure the playoffs with Pythagorean records. This was the same conversation during the Buck teams. 

[Osornot]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

People are underthinking this.

I tend to believe that some may take "luck" to mean that the team is not good and can only win by luck(?)

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Most people don't care.

 

They don't structure the playoffs with Pythagorean records. This was the same conversation during the Buck teams. 

To dismiss the issue as it's the manager stupid is underthinking the issue.

[yark14]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

People are underthinking this.

As you said, luck plays a factor.  Good managing and defense plays a bigger factor - we don't get blown out very often and we win the close games.  

But by far the biggest reason we outperform is the dong bong.

[CaptainRedbeard]

The Orioles are #13 in team fWAR from position players and #8 from pitchers. However, the starting pitchers are #18 and the RP are #1 (by a huge margin - the Orioles RP have 6.0 fWAR, compared to 5.0 by the #2 Giants). 

Basically, the bullpen has been really really good, especially in high leverage. That huge edge can be attributed a lot to Bautista, who has over half of the team’s RP fWAR. He’s at a ridiculous 2.7 fWAR, ahead of #2 Bednar at 1.9. 2.0 fWAR in a full RP season is already a fantastic year that will put you in the top 5 or so RP in any given year. For more context, Edwin Diaz had 3.0 on the season last year in his insane year; Clase was #2 at 2.4. 

TLDR: Bautista really good. 

[maybenxtyr]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

To dismiss the issue as it's the manager stupid is underthinking the issue.

It goes beyond the manager...I agree. Once again, this is the same conversation that we had during the Buck teams. At some point people have to admit that Pythagorean is a flawed stat, or Baltimore has figured out how to overcome it every year that they've been competitive.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

It goes beyond the manager...I agree. Once again, this is the same conversation that we had during the Buck teams. At some point people have to admit that Pythagorean is a flawed stat, or Baltimore has figured out how to overcome it every year that they've been competitive.

Who doesn't think that?

It's a quick, really simple tool.  No one should be super concerned about it.  Every year you have teams that over and under achieve their Pythag by significant degrees.

 

Edited August 6, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[TopGunnar]

A lot of these advanced analytics are stupid. 

[yark14]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

To dismiss the issue as it's the manager stupid is underthinking the issue.

How so?

I'm all for analytics, but there is so much data out there that anyone can can cherry pick some obscure stat to support whatever narrative they want to create.  That is overthinking.

[Baltimorecuse]

34 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

A lot of these advanced analytics are stupid. 

Pythag isn't advanced.  It's a very simple idea.  The "advanced" stuff is MEGO.

But I loved the movie.

Edited August 6, 2023 by Baltimorecuse

[Can_of_corn]

26 minutes ago, yark14 said:

How so?

I'm all for analytics, but there is so much data out there that anyone can can cherry pick some obscure stat to support whatever narrative they want to create.  That is overthinking.

No, that's framing an argument.

Like saying "Good managing.  Simple as that. ".

[luismatos4prez]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-much-luck-is-involved-in-one-run-games/

Calling it purely luck is a mistake.

Calling it purely grit and clutch is a mistake.

[yark14]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No, that's framing an argument.

Like saying "Good managing.  Simple as that. ".

Gotcha.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who doesn't think that?

It's a quick, really simple tool.  No one should be super concerned about it.  Every year you have teams that over and under achieve their Pythag by significant degrees.

 

So you agree, just want to go out of your way to make OP feel like an idiot.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

So you agree, just want to go out of your way to make OP feel like an idiot.

I just double checked.  I never responded to the OP in this thread.

 

So I have no idea what you are talking about.