Wednesday, August 9: Orioles try to bounce back after tough loss to Astros

[Alasdaire]

4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I would have loved to have gotten Aroldis Chapman. He's only making $3.7M this year and wouldn't have costed too much in a trade. Did Elias even call and ask? Missed opportunity.

Chapman might have been blackballed by many teams because of the character concerns. As we're seeing now with the Angelos situations, stories can derail your season. And the O's have placed emphasis on drafting/signing high-character guys. Could explain why Chapman was available for so cheap.

[O's84]

Just now, Alasdaire said:

Hey I'm on record saying that I wouldn't trade Felix for anyone in the league if you're only looking at this season, so I definitely believe in the value of a good reliever

My general belief is that there's a gap between the 2023 Orioles and the elite teams, and I don't think any single player is going to close that gap across multiples seven-game series. 

I don't think the gap is too big.  You bring up LA, ATL, HOU.  2 of those are in the NL.  Honestly the only teams I'm worried about is a TEX.  I think HOU and TB are to be respected but they don't wow me like TEX does.  I think we can make a run if we got the pieces at the deadline.  The right bullpen arm would do wonders.  I would have liked a better starter like Lorenzen but even with Flaherty we have a chance if we fortify the pen.  Supplement what you can of the minors and I think we have chances.    

Also I would say we should have won last night against HOU.  Not like we got destroyed in game 1 and it was a one run game tonight into the 8th.

[Uli2001]

O's need to reconstruct their bullpen, which is in shambles. It's going to screw this season up.

[Alasdaire]

2 minutes ago, O's84 said:

I don't think the gap is too big.  You bring up LA, ATL, HOU.  2 of those are in the NL. 

I think it's an overwhelming likelihood that one of Atlanta or LA comes out of the NL. So we would almost certainly have to face one of them.

Quote

Honestly the only teams I'm worried about is a TEX.  I think HOU and TB are to be respected but they don't wow me like TEX does.

Also I would say we should have won last night against HOU.  Not like we got destroyed in game 1 and it was a one run game tonight into the 8th.

Houston has been in every single ALCS for the past six seasons. They're the litmus test.

And I don't really get saying we "should have" won. We could have won, but we didn't. Houston manufactured that win in the same way they have for years. At a certain point with teams like that, winning in that fashion is a habit and not an accident, and Houston passed that point a long time ago.

[O's84]

48 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

I think it's an overwhelming likelihood that one of Atlanta or LA comes out of the NL. So we would almost certainly have to face one of them.

Houston has been in every single ALCS for the past six seasons. They're the litmus test.

And I don't really get saying we "should have" won. We could have won, but we didn't. Houston manufactured that win in the same way they have for years. At a certain point with teams like that, winning in that fashion is a habit and not an accident, and Houston passed that point a long time ago.

I agree that we will likely face one of them but not both because that's impossible.

As for HOU their pitching doesn't wow me.  Last year when they won the title their pitching ERA was 3.20.  This year it is 4.20, a full run worse per game.  They are to be respected, but they are not a juggernaut. 

As for the should have won, you go in to the 9th with a 3 run lead you win that the overwhelming majority of the time.   But my point was that you were making it sound like we were getting destroyed.  Yet the odds were overwhelming in our favor in the game 1 but we lost.  And it was a 1 run game into the 8th today before the pen, (which I pointed to) gave away any chance of coming back. 

"At a certain point with teams like that, winning in that fashion is a habit and not an accident, and Houston passed that point a long time ago."

As for winning game 1 was not an accident, are you saying that a team can consistently come back from 3 runs down in 9th against one of the best closers of the game? Because the numbers are way, way against that.   

Anyway, my main point is they are a better team, but it's not a huge gap.  TB has a lot of the pitchers on IL and the offense is starting to come back down.  TEX is scary good though.

As for ATL and LA, they are better teams but's it not by a mountain and the gap is closed considerably with a better SP and a dominant reliever.  I think ATL is better, but we played them tough this year.  LA series was close.

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by O's84

[O's84]

I'm sorry if I came off rude, I wasn't trying to.  Just trying to get my points across but if I did come across rude, I apologize.

[Alasdaire]

2 hours ago, O's84 said:

I agree that we will likely face one of them but not both because that's impossible.

As for HOU their pitching doesn't wow me.  Last year when they won the title their pitching ERA was 3.20.  This year it is 4.20, a full run worse per game.  They are to be respected, but they are not a juggernaut.

As for the should have won, you go in to the 9th with a 3 run lead you win that the overwhelming majority of the time.   But my point was that you were making it sound like we were getting destroyed.  Yet the odds were overwhelming in our favor in the game 1 but we lost.  And it was a 1 run game into the 8th today before the pen, (which I pointed to) gave away any chance of coming back.

"At a certain point with teams like that, winning in that fashion is a habit and not an accident, and Houston passed that point a long time ago."

As for winning game 1 was not an accident, are you saying that a team can consistently come back from 3 runs down in 9th against one of the best closers of the game? Because the numbers are way, way against that.   

Anyway, my main point is they are a better team, but it's not a huge gap.  TB has a lot of the pitchers on IL and the offense is starting to come back down.  TEX is scary good though.

As for ATL and LA, they are better teams but's it not by a mountain and the gap is closed considerably with a better SP and a dominant reliever.  I think ATL is better, but we played them tough this year.  LA series was close.

I just personally put a lot of stock in pedigree because I think winning is an acquired skill. The Astros are also the reigning champs and are defending their crown. I think there's something to those things. And they apply to the Braves and Dodgers too. Those are the only teams though. I wouldn't put Tampa in that group. It's neat that Texas has splurged on their roster and have scored a ton of runs this year, but they have to prove that means something in October.

About the likelihood of Houston coming back from three runs down in the ninth. They did it last year in September against us; down two in the ninth and knocked Felix out of the game and won. The general idea for me is that teams like Houston find a way. Whether it's building a big lead or putting together a comeback, they do what it takes so many times that it's not just luck. And we haven't yet learned how to do that, which is natural given our youth. That's why we've seen the teams who do know how to do it (Atlanta, LA, Houston) find a way against us even if it seemed so improbable. That's why they are who they are.

2 hours ago, O's84 said:

I'm sorry if I came off rude, I wasn't trying to.  Just trying to get my points across but if I did come across rude, I apologize.

Not at all! Your opinion is totally reasonable, and you weren't rude about it at all. Thanks for the thought though.

[LA2]

6 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I'm curious what budget Elias really had at the deadline. Or did Elias eat too much of his own cooking thinking any pitcher who can throw 100 MPH can be made into an effective reliever in the Orioles pitching lab.

Good Q

[LA2]

7 hours ago, Yossarian said:

Is Melanie Newman at risk of getting suspended for saying the Orioles lost tonight?

Only if it was in addition to her joking that Dave Johnson had better keep his hands off her pretzels.

[Bemorewins]

7 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

 

It's not a coincidence that one of (and sometimes both of) the Braves, Dodgers, and Astros have been in every World Series for the past six seasons. They do what it takes to win. If it wasn't Baker, it would have been someone else.

We'll (hopefully) be at their level when we graduate all of our talent and when we've gone through these growing pains like this for a season (or maybe two or four). But I don't think there are quick fixes or shortcuts.

We will be at their level when we construct a roster with enough talent to beat theirs.

Even when we “graduate” all of our talent, the problem is going to persist in the imbalance of pitching talent. We intentionally have ignored acquiring much of it through draft and development to load up on hitting/position players. We have to correct that some how by acquiring the talent we do not possess within the org.

[Yossarian]

20 hours ago, LA2 said:

Only if it was in addition to her joking that Dave Johnson had better keep his hands off her pretzels.

Is "pretzels" a euphemism or slang term for something else?

[Number5]

12 hours ago, Yossarian said:

Is "pretzels" a euphemism or slang term for something else?