Trade chips replaced in-house = Salary Relief

[Just Regular]

Really most of the decade it will be interesting to watch load management unroll.

You are a flimsy contender if you have to work your A pitchers hard all 26 weeks.     The tournament is easy to get into.

Young Grayson Rodriguez already has some in common with old LeBron James, at least in terms of how BAL will handle him in the near term.     We'll see if his performances ongoing can keep earning that kind of regard.     Bradish is on another level as he is nearing completing the entire slate of starts his Club asked him to for the fourth consecutive pro season, ignoring 2020.    The beeline April absence by now is more of a feature than a bug.

Tyler Wells as a length pitcher bridge to July 2024 enables data acquisition if any of the '24 AAA guys are enough stronger than Drew Rom to get Jack Flaherty's gig.

The team's overall strength and perhaps sufficient group of 5 length options make bullpen spending the interesting case for me approaching this offseason.    It is possible to do better than Mychal Givens, and in Felix's sudden absence that's a roster role money can serve a function without splashing the pool much for the clubhouse's core group.     All the lifelong friends might like it better if Gibson/Frazier money just goes to Craig Kimbrel for a minute.

 

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Everybody knows today that Rookie of the Year is to some extent a counting exercise competition.

I believe Kjerstad or Cowser is the aimed shot at '24, and it'll be fun to watch Elias manage expectations with Holliday and Mayo next spring preserving one or both of them for '25.

DH it looks like will be near half Adley's as they keep him on plate appearances leaderboards.

They could potentially have Hall, Ortiz, Cowser, & Kjerstad all as ROY candidates next year and Holliday & Mayo the year after.  I'd like to see them push the chips to the middle and get all the guys up next year.  The way Holliday has performed this year after an incredible showing in ST, it's hard not to think they may just roll the dice and throw him to the wolves for opening day.  Mayo has come on strong here at the end of the season and is going to make his case made in ST next year for a roster spot.  I don't see any of the guys from the OP as trade chips.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

 

He also likely will take on contracts via trades.

I think this is the likely path to getting an impact performer.  I can't see them outbidding someone for a significant FA.  It also helps them control cost and length of contract.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

I think this is the likely path to getting an impact performer.  I can't see them outbidding someone for a significant FA.  It also helps them control cost and length of contract.  

Exactly instead of five years they can get a guy for one or two years and perhaps get the other team to pay down the contract.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why Hall and McDermott?   Its called development which is Elias M.O.

I think Elias would gladly take 15 starts at 3.20 ERA  from Wells again next year.

Hall isn’t developing. Now, he had the injury this year and maybe they don’t give up on him being a starter but you also can’t rely on him to be a starter. That has been proven.

And yes, McDermott is developing but he’s not not closing to helping us in the rotation. Doesn’t mean he won’t be by mid season next year or so and he’s a reason you don’t extend Means or give an extension to someone like Kremer or anything like that but you don’t enter 2024 relying on him to be one of your go to guys right off the bat.  That’s an awful idea.

15 starts just isn’t helpful. That’s half the year. You need something you can count on. That’s not something  you can count on. Wells has proven he either wears down or gets hurt. He very well may be a back up plan and that’s fine…but you can’t rely on him. He should have been able to give you so much more this year and he couldn’t do it.  You can’t make that mistake again.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Really most of the decade it will be interesting to watch load management unroll.

You are a flimsy contender if you have to work your A pitchers hard all 26 weeks.     The tournament is easy to get into.

Young Grayson Rodriguez already has some in common with old LeBron James, at least in terms of how BAL will handle him in the near term.     We'll see if his performances ongoing can keep earning that kind of regard.     Bradish is on another level as he is nearing completing the entire slate of starts his Club asked him to for the fourth consecutive pro season, ignoring 2020.    The beeline April absence by now is more of a feature than a bug.

Tyler Wells as a length pitcher bridge to July 2024 enables data acquisition if any of the '24 AAA guys are enough stronger than Drew Rom to get Jack Flaherty's gig.

The team's overall strength and perhaps sufficient group of 5 length options make bullpen spending the interesting case for me approaching this offseason.    It is possible to do better than Mychal Givens, and in Felix's sudden absence that's a roster role money can serve a function without splashing the pool much for the clubhouse's core group.     All the lifelong friends might like it better if Gibson/Frazier money just goes to Craig Kimbrel for a minute.

 

Really seems like bullpen is the only major need going into this offseason. Especially if Felix is going to miss the whole year, the bullpen just screams out "best reliever you can find on one year deal." 

I think we have 6-7 guys who are good options for the rotation to start the year even with Gibson/Flaherty walking. Bradish, Grayson, Means, and Kremer are a solid four. Then you have Irvin, Voth, and Wells all as possible #5, plus McDermott and Povich, even Armbruester, Pham etc. If the rotation is looking like an issue in June, the 2024-25 free agent class has an amazing group that could be available for rental: Bieber, Buehler, Burnes, Cole (opt out), Eovaldi, Fried, Kelly, Verlander, Wheeler, Woodruff. Lots of options if we don't sign anyone this offseason. 

[Just Regular]

9 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

They could potentially have Hall, Ortiz, Cowser, & Kjerstad all as ROY candidates next year and Holliday & Mayo the year after.  I'd like to see them push the chips to the middle and get all the guys up next year.  The way Holliday has performed this year after an incredible showing in ST, it's hard not to think they may just roll the dice and throw him to the wolves for opening day.  Mayo has come on strong here at the end of the season and is going to make his case made in ST next year for a roster spot.  I don't see any of the guys from the OP as trade chips.

Next year at Norfolk it may be good sport to compare Mayo/Holliday with the famous Baylor/Grich combo from the 70's.    It isn't hard to imagine them near the very best AAA Bats in the league from opening day with the year over year growth that still occurs more reliably at those ages.    If Ortiz gets an honest shot at a gig, not many jobs.      Demographically they are different from this year's iteration of Westburg/Cowser "old" Tides all-stars.

I do think its in play iron sharpening iron that Joey Ortiz just gets bypassed and needs the Darell Hernaiz opportunity elsewhere.    

[Pickles]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mateo has limited value. He’s not good. He can play good D and he has speed. We have several IFers way more valuable. You need to learn how to let go and not be enamored by the shiney parts of his game.

Westburg has been the most valuable IFer outside of Henderson by fWAR iirc.

No need to keep going down the same road about Cowser.

Hays was also an awful player for about 6-7 weeks recently and despite being a deserving AS this year, is still only a 2ish WAR guy this year. I like Hays, it’s good to see him stay healthy. I like the OF next year with him, Mullins, Kjerstad and Cowser. But he’s nothing special. 
 

Yea, no reason to spend on the pen. They made a mistake with Givens. They won’t repeat that imo. Tate will be back. Could they keep Fuji if he’s cheap? I could see that. Give them more time to work with him. 

I have seen some fans wonder if they pursue Hader with Bautista out. I say zero chance of that.

Could they look to trade for a reliever? That I could see. 

Mateo's value is limited but definitely tangible.  I could see them parting ways with him this offseason, or I could see him back next year as a 26th man.  Neither will be particularly important decision, but I know full well if it's the latter many will scream negligence.

Hays isn't "special" but you consistently underappreciate solid ML starters, which is what he is, and are too quick to get rid of them for prospects.  I'd almost bet one of Cowser or Kjerstad doesn't achieve his career WAR.  Again, I'm willing to explore moving him or Santander this offseason, but if they're both back, and that means one of Cowser or Kjerstad have to spend more time in AAA, so be it.

I have a lot of confidence in their ability to bolster the pen without spending many resources.  They have consistently found contributors there for next to nothing, and I expect that is central to their plans going forward.  No, there's no way they'd ever spend the money on a Hader contract.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Mateo's value is limited but definitely tangible.  I could see them parting ways with him this offseason, or I could see him back next year as a 26th man.  Neither will be particularly important decision, but I know full well if it's the latter many will scream negligence.

Hays isn't "special" but you consistently underappreciate solid ML starters, which is what he is, and are too quick to get rid of them for prospects.  I'd almost bet one of Cowser or Kjerstad doesn't achieve his career WAR.  Again, I'm willing to explore moving him or Santander this offseason, but if they're both back, and that means one of Cowser or Kjerstad have to spend more time in AAA, so be it.

I have a lot of confidence in their ability to bolster the pen without spending many resources.  They have consistently found contributors there for next to nothing, and I expect that is central to their plans going forward.  No, there's no way they'd ever spend the money on a Hader contract.

I 100% agree with you there.

I do tend to want to move on from solid but not great guys for younger, higher upside talent. At one point, I wanted Hays over whoever was in front of him too. Hays if the type of guy you don’t pay any real amount of money too.

In his career, he has struggled to stay healthy, he has struggled to hit righties and he has struggled to show that over a full season that he can be a consistently solid contributor. That isn’t a player I want to keep bringing back even if that player does have value, at least as they start to make money.

And, on top of that, he’s not a player I want to rely on when I feel the teams goal should be winning as many games as possible.

Now, in a role where he’s getting 350-450 at bats next year, when we have 3 everyday OFers who bat left handed and we don’t rely on him as an everyday player, in a season where we are trying to win and we get to play our top level high end prospects? Hell yea, I want that player. More than happy to bring him back in that role.

I have never questioned whether he was good enough or not. Never questioned whether he had value or talent. But I did question his role as an everyday, 500+ at bat player because he lacked the consistency and reliability throughout his entire career to have be handed that role.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hall isn’t developing. Now, he had the injury this year and maybe they don’t give up on him being a starter but you also can’t rely on him to be a starter. That has been proven.

And yes, McDermott is developing but he’s not not closing to helping us in the rotation. Doesn’t mean he won’t be by mid season next year or so and he’s a reason you don’t extend Means or give an extension to someone like Kremer or anything like that but you don’t enter 2024 relying on him to be one of your go to guys right off the bat.  That’s an awful idea.

15 starts just isn’t helpful. That’s half the year. You need something you can count on. That’s not something  you can count on. Wells has proven he either wears down or gets hurt. He very well may be a back up plan and that’s fine…but you can’t rely on him. He should have been able to give you so much more this year and he couldn’t do it.  You can’t make that mistake again.

You don't believe in Hall.  Strike one. You don't believe in McDermott.  Strike two.  You don't believe in Wells as a starter.  Strike three.  You are out.

The O's have Bradish, GRod, Means and Kremer as one through 4 in the rotation.   Wells has proven over the last two years he is good for 15 starters at a 3.20 ERA.  That gets the rotation to July.

Irvin is available if anyone gets hurt.  His 2nd half ERA is 3.76.

Hall hurt his back before the season.   He is healthy now.  I have little doubt the O's prepare him as a starter in ST.   He has the talent, the pitches.  And he is developing as a starter.  He may start the season in the pen but if needed he can convert to a starter.  Especially by the 2nd half.  He also has options to go the minors and be stretched out if needed.

McDermott has already pitched 107 inning and 20 starts  this season between AA and AAA.  He has a 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 50k in 38.2 IP in 6 starts at AAA.  He probably has 5 starts left his season.  He will not be added to the off season roster because he does not need to be.  But he will come to ST as a starter and will probably be ready for his major league debut when needed next season.

That is 8 starters.

The O's are a development organization.  If you are not going to believe in their ability to develop talent you are completely missing one of the main thrust of who the organization has become.

 

[Just Regular]

The play where Mateo pinch ran for Westburg and that fraction of speed made a difference I think clinched his roster spot this tournament.

KC used Dyson/Gore a long time.     Bradfield's coming up behind Mateo for that role maybe by next tournament.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, wildcard said:

You don't believe in Hall.  Strike one. You don't believe in McDermott.  Strike two.  You don't believe in Wells as a starter.  Strike three.  You are out.

The O's have Bradish, GRod, Means and Kremer as one through 4 in the rotation.   Wells has proven over the last two years he is good for 15 starters at a 3.20 ERA.  That gets the rotation to July.

Irvin is available if anyone gets hurt.  His 2nd half ERA is 3.76.

Hall hurt his back before the season.   He is healthy now.  I have little doubt the O's prepare him as a starter in ST.   He has the talent, the pitches.  And he is developing as a starter.  He may start the season in the pen but if needed he can convert to a starter.  Especially by the 2nd half.  He also has options to go the minors and be stretched out if needed.

McDermott has already pitched 107 inning and 20 starts  this season between AA and AAA.  He has a 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 50k in 38.2 IP in 6 starts at AAA.  He probably has 5 starts left his season.  He will not be added to the off season roster because he does not need to be.  But he will come to ST as a starter and will probably be ready for his major league debut when needed next season.

That is 8 starters.

The O's are a development organization.  If you are not going to believe in their ability to develop talent you are completely missing one of the main thrust of who the organization has become.

 

Lol..I stopped reading after your first paragraph since you just choose to lie about what I said. You are just a complete waste of time.  

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

15 starts just isn’t helpful. That’s half the year. You need something you can count on. That’s not something  you can count on. Wells has proven he either wears down or gets hurt. He very well may be a back up plan and that’s fine…but you can’t rely on him. He should have been able to give you so much more this year and he couldn’t do it.  You can’t make that mistake again.

I wouldn't really call it a mistake. We got plenty of value out of him, and we had options in place to step in when we ran out of gas. If we have depth, Wells can be in the mix without relying on him to start 30+ games. (Really no pitcher can be relied upon for 30+ starts). It gets complicated if guys run out of options but that isn't the case with Wells (3 remaining). I had been in favor of starting the year with Wells in the bullpen but I'm fine with how things turned out. 

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol..I stopped reading after your first paragraph since you just choose to lie about what I said. You are just a complete waste of time.  

That's fine.  Others wll read what you decide not to.

Edited August 28, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

I wouldn't really call it a mistake. We got plenty of value out of him, and we had options in place to step in when we ran out of gas. If we have depth, Wells can be in the mix without relying on him to start 30+ games. (Really no pitcher can be relied upon for 30+ starts). It gets complicated if guys run out of options but that isn't the case with Wells (3 remaining). I had been in favor of starting the year with Wells in the bullpen but I'm fine with how things turned out. 

Yea, mistake is a bad choice of words. It wasn’t a mistake to go to him this year but it would be a mistake for next year. He just keeps proving that you can’t rely on him. No problem that he is a back up option. Put him in the pen, swingman, etc…perfectly fine with that. And if he ends up getting starts because of injury, poor performance, etc…that’s fine. I get it and he would be a nice guy to fall back on.

But you can’t enter the year relying on someone that gets to 100 innings and his arm starts to fall off.