Kjerstad possibly promoted?

[CaptainRedbeard]

Assuming Mountcastle is out for the year, once we get past the stretch of RHP starters I’d also like to see Coby Mayo promoted and McKenna sent down. Kjerstad has a 116 wRC+ in AAA. Mayo has a 115 wRC+ in AAA and has been much better in recent weeks. 

Against RHP, we’ll have 5 players for LF/RF/1B/DH: Hays, Santander, O’Hearn, Kjerstad, Hicks. Against LHP, we’ll want to sit O’Hearn and would need to rely on Kjerstad (or McCann or McKenna). I think Kjerstad doesn’t have a bad platoon split in the minors, but I’d rather see Mayo against a LHP and don’t want McCann or McKenna starting in the playoffs.

I’m not a McKenna hater but I don’t think he serves much purpose with Hicks healthy.

It may not happen since Mayo will require a 40-man spot and Kjerstad was going to get added this off-season anyway, but that shouldn’t stop us from fielding the best team for the postseason. 

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, interloper said:

Lol, what?

Hicks has a 1.000 OPS vs LHP. 
He's got an .822 OPS in the 2nd half.
He's got a 1.333 OPS in August.
He's hitting .291/.382/.467 since becoming an Oriole. 

I'm not saying he hasn't played well.     You could have gone with the 1.081 OPS in September - that one is even in more than 3 plate appearances!

If Mountcastle is off the map, it will be interesting to see the last two guys they put in the lineup with the seven big dogs at crunch time.    That's temporarily granting Westburg big dog status, and then you have one other infielder and a DH assuming 1B O'Hearn.

Are you putting Hicks in RF over Santander if Mountcastle's absence opens DH?

[Just Regular]

4 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Assuming Mountcastle is out for the year, once we get past the stretch of RHP starters I’d also like to see Coby Mayo promoted and McKenna sent down. Kjerstad has a 116 wRC+ in AAA. Mayo has a 115 wRC+ in AAA and has been much better in recent weeks. 

Against RHP, we’ll have 5 players for LF/RF/1B/DH: Hays, Santander, O’Hearn, Kjerstad, Hicks. Against LHP, we’ll want to sit O’Hearn and would need to rely on Kjerstad (or McCann or McKenna). I think Kjerstad doesn’t have a bad platoon split in the minors, but I’d rather see Mayo against a LHP and don’t want McCann or McKenna starting in the playoffs.

I’m not a McKenna hater but I don’t think he serves much purpose with Hicks healthy.

It may not happen since Mayo will require a 40-man spot and Kjerstad was going to get added this off-season anyway, but that shouldn’t stop us from fielding the best team for the postseason. 

The baseball gods can be funny.     If he doesn't keep 3B, Coby Mayo does kind of present as the new Ryan Mountcastle to the mix.     I assume the basic Lowenstein deployment pattern continues with O'Hearn.      Notwithstanding the zero MLB appearances, I could see Westburg there some, then with just more use of somebody out of Frazier/Urias/Mateo.

[Malike]

I will say, if we can get one of the young kids to give us a Davis Schneider type boost it would be huge. Obviously, Schneider who is on pace for a near 14 WAR over a full season isn't that guy going forward, but he's on a nice run with a near .500 BABIP. Could use a boost like that for a few weeks.

[baltfan]

17 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Assuming Mountcastle is out for the year, once we get past the stretch of RHP starters I’d also like to see Coby Mayo promoted and McKenna sent down. Kjerstad has a 116 wRC+ in AAA. Mayo has a 115 wRC+ in AAA and has been much better in recent weeks. 

Against RHP, we’ll have 5 players for LF/RF/1B/DH: Hays, Santander, O’Hearn, Kjerstad, Hicks. Against LHP, we’ll want to sit O’Hearn and would need to rely on Kjerstad (or McCann or McKenna). I think Kjerstad doesn’t have a bad platoon split in the minors, but I’d rather see Mayo against a LHP and don’t want McCann or McKenna starting in the playoffs.

I’m not a McKenna hater but I don’t think he serves much purpose with Hicks healthy.

It may not happen since Mayo will require a 40-man spot and Kjerstad was going to get added this off-season anyway, but that shouldn’t stop us from fielding the best team for the postseason. 

I am kind of surprised that the WRC+ are as low as they are.  I expected they would be higher given their raw stats.  Just goes to show the batting inflation in AAA.

[CaptainRedbeard]

4 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I am kind of surprised that the WRC+ are as low as they are.  I expected they would be higher given their raw stats.  Just goes to show the batting inflation in AAA.

Yeah, the offensive environment in AAA has been crazy high this year with the challenge system on balls and strikes. That’s why you need the context of the adjusted numbers. 

All the more reason to not expect too much out of Kjerstad, or Mayo. But if they have normal AAA to MLB transitions it’s still reasonable to expect them to be about league average hitters now, which is still our best option without Mountcastle. 

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Malike said:

Yeah, Fangraphs has his fWAR at -4.8 and dWAR at 7.1. BBREF looks at him as 1.0 bWAR  and 0.2 dWAR for 0.8 total.  I'd compare him to Mateo who had -4.3 fWAR last year but his dWAR was 14.2 and 2.8 total in 2022.

Your terminology is pretty confusing, and I also think you’re comparing apples and oranges in terms of how WAR is broken down into components for rWAR (which some people call bWAR) and fWAR.   

De la Cruz has been worth 0.8 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR.   Per BB-ref, his offense is rated at 1.0 oWAR (not bWAR), while his defense is rated at -0.2 dWAR.   But rWAR is not the sum of oWAR and dWAR, though the math happens to work out in this case.  Look at other players and you’ll see that the two don’t add up to rWAR, due to adjustments that are made by position played.

Fangraphs rates De la Cruz at 1.5 fWAR.  Again that is not the sum of what they list as “offense” (-4.8) and “defense” (7.1).  Those numbers are expressed in runs, not wins, and there are other components that go into calculating fWAR.
 

 

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

-4.8 FWAR doesn't even seem possible.  That would be worse than Brett Phillips playing every day. 

It's not. He's eight runs below average with the bat, a +1 baserunner, a +1 on avoiding double plays, a -2 fielder by DRS, +4 positional adjustment. Overall about half a win below average, and 0.8 WAR overall. This is bb-ref, but should be similar. 

When people start quoting wins above replacement on offense or defensive or whatever that's not really a thing. There are only players whose overall contributions are X above or below replacement.

[MCO'sFan]

3 hours ago, baltfan said:

No chance he cares about Cowser’s status enough to call up someone who he believes is inferior for the most important games of the years

Unless they don't plan on playing them anyway. He could be on the roster for 24 hours and optioned. Still seems weird that Heston is th call up. 

[jamalshw]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

I was going to say maybe he could give us an Elly De La Cruz type boost, then realized despite being promoted as the best player in the league by MLB radio and TV showing some highlight or another each day he's OPS'ing .706 with a wRC+ of 82 and his fWAR is 1.5 which is completely driven by his defense, he's at -4.8 fWAR with his offense. I'm being honest, I just looked at his numbers, and I figured he was destroying the league as much as his name keeps coming up.

He got a bunch of hype when he came up. He had a 1.063 OPS through his first 16 games showed speed and power and was exciting to watch, but he's been bad in the second half. The league adjusted and he's not adjusted back. He's got a .181/.261/.340 slash line in the second half and is just 7-for-42 with seven walks and one extra base hit in September. That initial first impression propped up the perception of him for a while, but the sheen has worn off. 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

He got a bunch of hype when he came up. He had a 1.063 OPS through his first 16 games showed speed and power and was exciting to watch, but he's been bad in the second half. The league adjusted and he's not adjusted back. He's got a .181/.261/.340 slash line in the second half and is just 7-for-42 with seven walks and one extra base hit in September. That initial first impression propped up the perception of him for a while, but the sheen has worn off. 

Yeah, but I was told Reds players adjust to the majors so much better than the O's!

[spleen1015]

This is the same FO that gave DL Hall a start against the Rays as his ML debut.

Anything with Kjerstad is possible, homies.

[sportsfan8703]

I’m guessing..

Vavra to 60 day IL

Mountcastle to 10 day IL

Kjerstad to 40 man and 28 man roster

Possibly Irvin for Vespi somehow if we can use the Mountcastle IL trip for Irvin???

Hopefully Mountcastle is back for the playoffs. We’ve been a different team since he’s been killing since the ASB. .900 OPS in the 2nd half. 

[AnythingO's]

As for Kjerstad vs Cowser, Heston seems to have recovered somewhat in September posting .317 .391 .463 (854 OPS) in 41 ABs vs Cowser at .273 .325 .576 (901 OPS) in 33 ABs. Cowser's SLG is driven by 3 HRs in 33 ABs. I thought Heston would get the Gunner treatment when he put up .387 .453 .640 (1.093 OPS) in July but he ran outta gas in August .229 .293 .362. Good to see him rebound in September.

[RVAOsFan]

Wrong post for this but I have seen Vavra's name mentioned in here a couple times to clear 40 man space for Kjerstad. Why wasn't he moved before the deadline for a lottery ticket and bag or balls? He just doesn't seem to have much of a path back to the big league roster and is taking up 40 man space.