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Some potential moves for this offseason


Sports Guy

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12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The age difference and more service time is part of it.

Gilbert is the better pitcher in terms of walks but Woo misses more bats, gets more Ks and his statcast data is really good.

Now of course it’s a smaller sample size for Woo but he was also a highly ranked prospect (as Gilbert was) and I just like the profile a little more.

Woo has a bit of a scary profile. He threw 72.6% fastballs and was really, really bad against LH batters - 1.52 K/BB, .394 wOBA, 6.55 FIP and 6.14 xFIP.  He has a great fastball but he’s going to need to make serious adjustments to his game to last as a starting pitcher. He’s young and can still do that of course, but there’s significant risk there. 

Between Woo and Miller I like Miller a lot more. Both are killer on righties and Miller is similarly fastball-heavy with platoon issues, but it’s less extreme - 66.1% fastballs and 2.94 K/BB, .387 wOBA, 5.46 FIP and 5.22 xFIP. 

Miller also has an elite spin rate on his fastball and Woo’s is mediocre. Models like Stuff+ and Pitching Bot like Miller a LOT and Woo still good, but much less. 

Gilbert is a much more reliable pitcher than either Miller or Woo, but for that reason the price for him is going to be extreme. The upside also isn’t quite as high, despite the floor being much higher. I think Miller and Woo are better targets but I would be very happy with any of the 3 for the right price. 

Seattle is also a bullpen factory - would be interesting to see a two birds / one stone trade where we pick up the righty reliever we need as well. Matt Brash in particular would be expensive but he is pretty incredible. 

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On 10/13/2023 at 7:58 AM, Sports Guy said:


There are so many directions this team can go in this offseason. These are just a few ideas of the types of moves I would like to see:

1) Westburg for Woo

2) Cowser, Mountcastle, Norby, Kremer and Max Wagner for Robert, Jr and Christian Mena (his profile sounds like one the Os would like and could be a reliever very soon)  

This is a lot to give and I could see this trade backfiring but Robert has a team friendly 4 years left on his deal and he has big power and big upside. 

3)  Sign a starter.  This offseason, the starters that are interesting are Gray, Snell, Montgomery, Stroman, Nola and ERod. You should be able to afford one of those guys. I think Snell is going to get too much. Nola would be my preference but I’m guessing he gets too much.  Any of the remaining guys have Enough warts that they could get 3 years or less and that’s the area the Os need to be in.

An under the radar name would be Maeda. He has some very nice stats. The issue with Maeda is that he has a real injury history and he’s tough to rely on. He’s a better version of Tyler Wells.

4) Sign Kimbrel. He will be coming off a 1/10 deal. If you can get him for 2 years or less, he gives you a vet back end of the pen presence. 
 

5) Trade Santander. One of the pieces I would be looking to add is a ML ready/close to ML ready (or already in the majors) BP piece that fits the traits of missing bats, good command and control, high strikeout type guy.  Should be able to get at least one other top 10 prospect as well.

6) Sign Henderson to a 7 year extension for 110-120M

7) Give Holliday an 8 year deal for around 100M.  Holliday makes the OD roster.

8. Mateo is traded or non tendered.

9) Mayo makes team out of ST

IF: Mayo/OHearn, Ortiz, Holliday, Gunnar, Urias

OF: Kjerstad, Mullins, Robert and Hays

C- Adley and McCann

DH- a rotation of guys with Kjerstad probably getting more at bats than anyone else.

SP: Bradish, GRod, Woo, Means, FA starter

BP: Kimbrel, Hall, Wells, Irvin, Coloumbe, Cano, Perez

That’s 24 players. One more in the pen…Competition between who you receive in trade and Tate.

Last player is likely to be an OFer. With Robert here, you don’t need someone who can play CF, so bringing back Hicks could work in this scenario.
 

Salary added from trades/signings


Robert- 12.5M

Kimbrel- 10-15M

FA starter- 12-20M

Salary subtracted from trades/non tenders:  Santander, Mateo, Mountcastle. That is about 18M of expected arb increases.

Payroll:

10 guys making league minimum…7.5

9 arb eligible guys- roughly 29M

3 “big” acquisitions: 35-48M

McCann- 4M

Last few spots are likely to be cheaper salaries. Just call those 3 spots a total of 4M (May be high but leave it at that).

Total payroll is in the area of 80-92M depending on the cost of the starter and Kimbrel.


 

Not sure how realistic it would be but I would offer Gunnar more years- 10 if we can. 

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7 minutes ago, terpoh said:

Not sure how realistic it would be but I would offer Gunnar more years- 10 if we can. 

That’s not realistic.

He either needs to get to FA sooner or you need to put some crazy Tatis like deal out there.

A 15+ year deal is pretty ugly, so the 7 year is probably the best we can hope for. Maybe we get lucky and you can squeeze an 8th year but I tend to doubt it.

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15 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Woo has a bit of a scary profile. He threw 72.6% fastballs and was really, really bad against LH batters - 1.52 K/BB, .394 wOBA, 6.55 FIP and 6.14 xFIP.  He has a great fastball but he’s going to need to make serious adjustments to his game to last as a starting pitcher. He’s young and can still do that of course, but there’s significant risk there. 

Between Woo and Miller I like Miller a lot more. Both are killer on righties and Miller is similarly fastball-heavy with platoon issues, but it’s less extreme - 66.1% fastballs and 2.94 K/BB, .387 wOBA, 5.46 FIP and 5.22 xFIP. 

Miller also has an elite spin rate on his fastball and Woo’s is mediocre. Models like Stuff+ and Pitching Bot like Miller a LOT and Woo still good, but much less. 

Gilbert is a much more reliable pitcher than either Miller or Woo, but for that reason the price for him is going to be extreme. The upside also isn’t quite as high, despite the floor being much higher. I think Miller and Woo are better targets but I would be very happy with any of the 3 for the right price. 

Seattle is also a bullpen factory - would be interesting to see a two birds / one stone trade where we pick up the righty reliever we need as well. Matt Brash in particular would be expensive but he is pretty incredible. 

I’d be happy with Miller but his statcast data is relatively ugly outside of walk rate.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bryce-miller-682243?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d be happy with Miller but his statcast data is relatively ugly outside of walk rate.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bryce-miller-682243?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Yes, Woo did much better in limiting contact than Miller this year. That was the biggest knock on Miller. These are still small samples though and not enough to conclude that is stable. The walk rate is also still a very big factor, a significant plus for Miller and much more predictive. But contact suppression in 2023 was nonetheless a point in Woo’s favor, I just think the other points are in Miller’s favor. 

Woo and Miller are very close, coincidentally pretty similar to Cowser with Kjerstad and Westburg with Ortiz. You can make arguments on preference for either player in each pairing but all 6 are close in trade value. A trade of a SEA pitcher for a BAL hitter in that group makes sense for everybody but I wouldn’t be surprised if the teams themselves had a hard time agreeing on their ranking of preferences amongst those 6 guys. 

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52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s not realistic.

He either needs to get to FA sooner or you need to put some crazy Tatis like deal out there.

A 15+ year deal is pretty ugly, so the 7 year is probably the best we can hope for. Maybe we get lucky and you can squeeze an 8th year but I tend to doubt it.

I’d love to see them try some more complicated structure sort of like Julio Rodriguez where the years and dollars fluctuate a bit depending on performance but the player still has a lot of financial security.  

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3 hours ago, SemperFi said:

The Orioles can certainly afford existing contracts but I doubt they take on anything more than two years (not just Yelich) given Elias's history and the uncertainty over ownership (eventual sale).  I think there is a much better chance he follows the Cubs/Astros model (he and Hyde are part of that tree) and trades for a veteran(s) on a short term contract.

Good point, lets revise as I still think we match up well

Os Get: Burnes, Williams, Cooper Pratt, Jacob Misiorowski, Ethan Small, and Pratt

Brewers Get: Santander, Mountcastle, Urias, Stowers, Norby, Wagner, and Haskin

 

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57 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Good point, lets revise as I still think we match up well

Os Get: Burnes, Williams, Cooper Pratt, Jacob Misiorowski, Ethan Small, and Pratt

Brewers Get: Santander, Mountcastle, Urias, Stowers, Norby, Wagner, and Haskin

 

Lol might as well swap entire 40 man rosters.

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