Trade target: Tyler Glasnow

[wildcard]

I said Tampa will trade Glasnow because that is what they do when a player gets expensive.  They trade him.

And I don't think it would be to the O's because what Tampa would want in return is a couple of players that will torture the O's for the next 5 or 6 years.  Elias wants no part of that.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I said Tampa will trade Glasnow because that is what they do when a player gets expensive.  They trade him.

And I don't think it would be to the O's because what Tampa would want in return is a couple of players that will torture the O's for the next 5 or 6 years.  Elias wants no part of that.

I don't think that's an issue, I hope not at any rate.

I think it will be either the finical cost or the prospect cost.

I don't think Elias is shortsighted enough to have issues with trading in the AL East.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think that's an issue, I hope not at any rate.

I think it will be either the finical cost or the prospect cost.

I don't think Elias is shortsighted enough to have issues with trading in the AL East.

Well that is the way I see it.

The O's would pay Glasnow 25m for one year then he going FA.   Tampa would want Westburg and/or Kjerstad or someone equal to that.  And for the next 6 years those players would make Elias regret that trade every chance they got.

[Dale]

Here is a cut-and-pasted article from The Cub Reporter, Arizona Phil,  on the possibility that the Cubs will try to acquire him.  He believes he will be traded and lays out why he thinks the Cubs have a chance of getting him.   Fascinating read from a knowledgeable super fan.  Triantos and Little are somewhere in the 8-16 range on most Cub prospect lists.  The Cubs 8-16 range is probably similar to that of the Orioles. 

https://www.thecubreporter.com

"The Rays are in a different position than the Cubs with respect to the CBT threshold.

Unlike the Cubs, the Rays are in absolutely no danger of exceeding the CBT threshold in 2024. However, the Rays would (in general, whenever possible) want to exchange high-salaries for pre-arb guys. 

Tyler Glasgow is signed to a weird contract that made him highly valuable to the Rays in 2023, but makes trading him post-2023 a virtual slam dunk. 

Glasnow is signed to a two-year $30.35M contract ($15.175M AAV) that paid him only $5.35M in 2023, but jumps to $25M in 2024, so his AAV in both 2023 and 2024 is half of the aggregate value of the two year contract ($15.175M in both seasons), even though the actual salaries are wildly different. 

Glasnow's 2024 $15.175M AAV is about the same as Kyle Hendricks' 2024 AAV, but it's Glasnow's 2024 $25M salary that would be a problem for the Rays (again, the Rays don't care about a player's AAV, but they do care about a player's actual salary). 

"So the Rays almost certainly will (must) trade Glasnow this off season, and the Cubs can readily afford the AAV hit, especially if Marcus Stroman opts out  (doesn't appear too likely at this point), or if the Cubs either decline Hendricks club option or exercise it and then trade him.

So the problem then is not whether the Cubs can afford Glasnow's salary (or more importantly his 2024 AAV hit), but rather if they can meet the Rays' asking price in terms of  players. 

Ordinarily a one year "rental" like Glasnow might have diminished trade value, but with the number of teams likely in the hunt for a TOR SP (which Glasnow is), the price will probably be quite high. 

The Rays might also insist that any team acquiring Glasnow take back OF Manuel Margot and his back loaded contract ($9.5M AAV but he gets $10M in actual salary in 2024 plus a likely $2M buy-out post-2024). 

And coincidentally the Cubs actually would have some use for a player like Margot in 2024 (a RH-hitting outfielder who could platoon with Mike Tauchman in CF until whenever PCA is ready to take over the job). 

And it's likely that some of the other clubs that might otherwise have an interest in Glasnow would have zero interest in acquiring Margot.

So the Cubs could get a leg up in the bidding right from the start if they are willing to take back Margot. 

Also, the Cubs would likely get a draft pick between the 2nd and 3rd round of the 2025 draft as compensation if they acquire Glasnow and then are unable to sign him to a contract extension beyond 2024. 

So I would think the Rays asking price would be somebody  equivalent to the 2nd round comp pick they would get if they keep Glasnow and he leaves as a free-agent post-2024, plus an MLB-ready or near MLB-ready SP to directly replace Glasnow in the rotation, and another young pre-arb MLB-ready arm.

So I doubt that James Triantos and Luke Little would be enough to get it done, and that's even if the Cubs take back Margot. The Cubs would probably also have to include a young MLB-ready or near MLB-ready SP. " 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

To play CF on a playoff team.  #12 is general idea of a prospect.  Like Seth Johnson mentioned above.

Noted

[Yossarian]

Go after Snell, then you don't have to give anybody up. 

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Go after Snell, then you don't have to give anybody up. 

Going to have to give up Benjamin.

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Its evergreen that Tampa thrives on $$$/WAR surplus value.     They are mostly agnostic, though they are a run prevention org.     Bats of proven quality just cost too much, and they've profited on defense being undervalued.

They've held their Glasnow a long time, so there isn't much surplus value left.

Seth Johnson for Tyler Glasnow....really make the player feel like a commodity.

Joey Ortiz for Tyler Glasnow....they may have a, ummm, SS opening.

Johnson and Ortiz?

Rays have Caminiero (sp?)/ who is also the #2 prospect in baseball and can play SS

[InsideCoroner]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Going to have to give up Benjamin.

And Benjamin has proven to be all but untouchable the last five years. I’m skeptical about that changing.

[vab]

The best the Orioles could do with regard to a Glasnow trade would be to try to get in on some type of 3-way deal where Glasnow ends up somewhere other than Baltimore. You don't trade that type of pitcher in the division. 

[tntoriole]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Going to have to give up Benjamin.

Os are not going to sign ANY player to even a 4 year deal, much less the 5 or 6 the top tier pitcher free agents will get 

[Dale]

Apparently, the article I posted above needs to be corrected.  According to the poster Bradsbeard on the AZ Phil site, the AAV is re-calculated after a trade so that the receiving team takes on the AAV of only the dollars remaining on the contract. So if the Cubs or Orioles ake on Glasnow’s full remaining contract, the CBT hit for them will be $25M (and $35M if they take on Margot). That should substantially lessen the cost to acquire Glasnow (unless the Rays pay down some of the salary, which they might I suppose).

 

WRT to trading within the division.  In-division trades make more sense than in past years, due to the more balanced schedules and three wildcards. 

[wildcard]

46 minutes ago, Dale said:

Apparently, the article I posted above needs to be corrected.  According to the poster Bradsbeard on the AZ Phil site, the AAV is re-calculated after a trade so that the receiving team takes on the AAV of only the dollars remaining on the contract. So if the Cubs or Orioles ake on Glasnow’s full remaining contract, the CBT hit for them will be $25M (and $35M if they take on Margot). That should substantially lessen the cost to acquire Glasnow (unless the Rays pay down some of the salary, which they might I suppose).

 

WRT to trading within the division.  In-division trades make more sense than in past years, due to the more balanced schedules and three wildcards. 

Though its true that the number of times the O's play the Rays has decreased from 17 to 13, that is still 13 games a year for 5 or 6 years have prospects that the O's trade to the Rays could bash the O's.  

I don't consider that a good idea if the prospects the O's send are of high quality.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Though its true that the number of times the O's play the Rays has decreased from 17 to 13, that is still 13 games a year for 5 or 6 years have prospects that the O's trade to the Rays could bash the O's.  

I don't consider that a good idea if the prospects the O's send are of high quality.

Yep they should predicate their team building efforts on the fear they have of competing against the division.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep they should predicate their team building efforts on the fear they have of competing against the division.

Of course.   That's common sense.  They should predicate their team building efforts on their intention of competing against the division.

I mean what else should they concern themselves with?  How they match up with the Monstars?

Edited October 23, 2023 by Pickles