Santander Speculation

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

He had a 3 rWAR (2.6 fWAR) last year. I don't think back to back 3-ish WAR seasons is enough to merit 4/80 entering an age 30 season.

A similar comp would be Andrew Benintendi, who signed for 5/75M after 2022 coming off of 2.6 and 3.2 rWAR seasons in 2021-22, but he was 21 months younger than Santander will be entering free agency (Benintendi was 28 and 3 months in October 2022 vs. Santander turning 30 in October 2024).

A multi year contract is probably a lot more than 1/20m.   So Santander does not stay with the O's in 2025 opening playing time for Kjerstad, Cowser and Beavers at that point.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm in camp:

1. Get a player (s)
2. Open up a roster spot
3. Free up payroll for other needs

That's perfectly reasonable.

For me, I need more than (a) player(s.)  I still want value.

And I have no faith in this team that they will "reinvest" Santader's salary elsewhere.  His is not a salary that needs to managed around.

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, Pickles said:

That's perfectly reasonable.

For me, I need more than (a) player(s.)  I still want value.

And I have no faith in this team that they will "reinvest" Santader's salary elsewhere.  His is not a salary that needs to managed around.

The same team you think won’t reinvest the 12M saved also doesn’t have any effect on the rest of the roster?   I think those two ideas conflict with each other.

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

A multi year contract is probably a lot more than 1/20m.   So Santander does not stay with the O's in 2025 opening playing time for Kjerstad, Cowser and Beavers at that point.

That’s assuming he’s healthy and has a good year. 

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

That would be true if we were talking about trading Santander for prospects, rather than Major League pitching. The idea is to shift some our excess MLB talent in the outfield to improve the pitching staff.

Both Kjerstad and Cowser have earned the opportunity to sink or swim in the Majors at this point. There aren't going to be enough at-bats for both of them if all 5 of Hays, Mullins, Santander, Mountcastle and O'Hearn are back next year. One or two of those 7 players should be traded (perhaps with other prospects) for pitching.

Not enough at bats for Kjerstad and Cowser?    The players you mentioned are probably not all full time players. 

Mullins played 116 games in 2023 and had a 721 OPS for the 2nd year in a row.  That does not project as a full time player when his wheels are getting older.

Hays plays like an All-Star in the 1st half but in the 2nd in 2022 he has a 626 OPS and a 667 OPS in 2023.

Santander hits well when he plays the outfield or 1B but in 2022 he has a 642 OPS when he DHed and a 690 OPS as a DH in 2023.

Mountcastle had a 640 OPS vs right-handed pitching in 2023 and had vertigo.   He is done with that or will it reoccur?

O'Hearn does not play vs lefties.  And he has been a good hitter for one year.

I am in favor on keeping all these players but lets not act like they are a bunch of 162 game players.   Hyde can find spots for Cowser and Kjerstad to play.   And in 2025 several of these players will be gone and if Cowser and Kjerstad show well in 2024 they are in line of starting roles in 2025.

Depth is something that should help the O's in 2024.  Cowser and Kjerstad are depth until they show otherwise.

Edited October 27, 2023 by wildcard

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s assuming he’s healthy and has a good year. 

Yep

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not enough at bats for Kjerstad and Cowser?    The players you mentioned are probably not all full time players. 

Mullins played 116 games in 2023 and had a 721 OPS for the 2nd year in a row.  That does not project as a full time player when his wheels are getting older.

Hays plays like an All-Star in the 1st half but in the 2nd in 2022 he has a 626 OPS and a 667 OPS in 2023.

Santander hits well when he plays the outfield or 1B but in 2022 he has a 642 OPS when he DHed and a 690 OPS as a DH in 2023.

Mountcastle had a 640 OPS vs right-handed pitching in 2023 and had vertigo.   He is done with that or will it reoccur?

O'Hearn does not play vs lefties.  And he has been a good hitter for one year.

I am in favor on keeping all these players but lets not act like they are a bunch of 162 game players.   Hyde can find spot for Cowser and Kjerstad to play.   And in 2025 several of these players will be gone and if Cowser and Kjerstad show well in 2024 they are in line of starting roles in 2025.

Depth is something that should help the O's in 2024.  Cowser and Kjerstad are depth until they show otherwise.

Hays played 144 and Santander 152.  With O’Hearn, Mountcastle, and Rutshman splitting 1B/DH, there won’t be many AB’s for one rookie let alone two.   They might be able to give one of them Westburg type AB’s. 
 

Trading Santander gives you depth in another area and you’re replacing Santander from the depth we have and we’ll have even more depth behind his replacement.   There is an adjustment period for most of these guys.  Kicking the can down the road just means the adjustment is delayed.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Hays played 144 and Santander 152.  With O’Hearn, Mountcastle, and Rutshman splitting 1B/DH, there won’t be many AB’s for one rookie let alone two.   They might be able to give one of them Westburg type AB’s. 
 

Trading Santander gives you depth in another area and you’re replacing Santander from the depth we have and we’ll have even more depth behind his replacement.   There is an adjustment period for most of these guys.  Kicking the can down the road just means the adjustment is delayed.

If Hays does not hit in the 2nd half and Santander can't even hit for a 700 OPS as a DH, what makes you think either player gets that many at bats in 2024?   Especially with Cowser and Kjerstad there to hit better in those spots.

Edited October 27, 2023 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

Just now, wildcard said:

If Hays does not hit in the 2nd half and Santander can't even hit for a 700 OPS as a DH, what makes you they either player gets that many at bats in 2024?   Especially with Cowser and Kjerstad there to hit better in those spots.

They didn’t bench Hays in the 2nd half this year with Cowser and Kjerstad tearing up AAA.  What makes you think it will be any different in 2024?

Santander, if healthy, will be in the lineup 145 games minimum just like the last two years.   They aren’t going to DH him more than he plays RF.  

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it means he's salty about his choice of degree.

In many circles seasoned just means old

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

They didn’t bench Hays in the 2nd half this year with Cowser and Kjerstad tearing up AAA.  What makes you think it will be any different in 2024?

Santander, if healthy, will be in the lineup 145 games minimum just like the last two years.   They aren’t going to DH him more than he plays RF.  

Cowser was hurt  and then didn't play well when called up.   If Hays slumps in the 2nd half the way he has the last two years Cowser gets another chance to out hit Hays and play left.   Its up to him whether he can perform.

I would hope if Santander hits for under a 700 OPS at DH then he does play there.  He plays the OF and 1B where he hits well.   Kjerstad gets a chance to DH and shows what he can do.

There are not just two spots on the field for these guys to get at bats.    Santander can get At Bats at 1B if O'Hearn and Mounty are not hitting opening playing time for Kjerstad.   If Mullins is not hitting Cowser can back him up.   He is not has good defensively but neither was Hicks and Hyde played him.

The important thing here is to have the depth to turn to in Cowser and Kjerstad when and where needed. If that happen maybe the team is not so beat up in Sept an October as they were this past season.

[Pickles]

58 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The same team you think won’t reinvest the 12M saved also doesn’t have any effect on the rest of the roster?   I think those two ideas conflict with each other.

I don't think they're going to take on the kind of contracts/commitments where Santander's salary is going to be significant.  They're not going to "save" 12 million by trading AS and then turn around and give 30 mil to Snell.  At best, they would save 12 and turn around and sign a Gibson.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I don't think they're going to take on the kind of contracts/commitments where Santander's salary is going to be significant.  They're not going to "save" 12 million by trading AS and then turn around and give 30 mil to Snell.  At best, they would save 12 and turn around and sign a Gibson.

Sign a Gibson, trade for Cease, etc.  For a team with a 70M payroll, a 12M salary is a significant piece of the pie.  They might be happy paying it to Santander or they might think Kjerstad can replace most of the production and allocate it someplace other than RF.

[drjohnnyfever1]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Funny how you say no one in the media knows who Elias will target while claiming with evident confidence that Flaherty was at best plan C.

We don't know either, he might have been option one.

 

 

Dude, you pick the silliest things to argue about or take issue with. lol  Maybe Flaherty was our top priority.  The point is, is that it didn't really seem that the media had any clue what we were doing - anymore than me or you.

 

[btdart20]

The QO is a branch of the decision tree risk assessment.  That probability (regardless of how low or worthwhile) is part of the net present value of Santander.

Santander isn't going to make an AAV of $20m/yr in FA.  But the total contract value will likely be over $20m (say 4/$50m -- $12.5m AAV).  I think Santander will make more lifetime money accepting the $20m and then signing a 3/$36m being another year older when he hits FA in 2026.

I'm now leaning toward the likelihood that he would accept the QO if offered after 2024.  I think that helps the odds of him being traded, but it's not a sure thing either...