The Brewers as Trade Partners

[Jim'sKid26]

If we are to believe Ken Rosenthal, in this article from the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/5047458/2023/11/09/mlb-free-agency-trade-brewers-royals/

the Brewers are willing to trade both Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams. Given that Mike Elias has stated that he would like to obtain a SP and a Closer (or has at least implied that desire), what would it take to get Burnes and Williams? This is in the spirit of one trade solves two problems. 

[Jammer7]

Well, does this discussion start with Jackson Holliday going back? If so, it’s over before it begins. 

[vab]

Jackson Holliday would not be out of the question for me in a trade for those two (with a Burnes extension). You're addressing closer and front line SP. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, vab said:

Jackson Holliday would not be out of the question for me in a trade for those two (with a Burnes extension). You're addressing closer and front line SP. 

Can we discuss trades without talking about extensions?   It’s a waste of time.  Just assume their isn’t one.

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Can we discuss trades without talking about extensions?   It’s a waste of time.  Just assume their isn’t one.

Isn't it also a waste of time to think of the O's extending Burnes? I hate to say it, but I simply cannot see the O's in his market. He'll cost too much for a 1-year rental, and we won't re-sign him.

[RZNJ]

Getting both is going to be too expensive in terms of player capital for a 1 year run.   You have both players for this year and Williams for 2025.

Corbin Burnes is good but talk about a pitcher trending in the wrong direction.  

[HakunaSakata]

I'm fine with targeting Burnes, but Burnes AND Williams would require way too much. And I certainly wouldn't even consider parting with Holliday unless a young MLB ready SP is on the table. Burnes doesn't check that box. 

RPs, especially closers, are very volatile from year to year. The Orioles would be better off trying to find the next Devin Williams than trying to trade for the actual Devin Williams. 

In looking at the Brewer's depth chart I'm also very curious how they think they can afford to trade Burnes. Their 4 and 5 SPs are already sketchy with Burnes in the rotation and I doubt they're banking on a full season from Woodruff. And they only have one pitching prospect in the top 100. 

Full Disclosure - I didn't (and would never) pay to read an article by Ken Rosenthal. 

[Sports Guy]

Wonder what it would take just for Williams?

[HakunaSakata]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wonder what it would take just for Williams?

Probably a Cowser/Westberg level prospect. Or maybe Mullins + a lower level prospect if they want a veteran. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Probably a Cowser/Westberg level prospect. Or maybe Mullins + a lower level prospect if they want a veteran. 

Yes and probably looking at multiple players back.   

[24fps]

If I'm Milwaukee and both are packaged together, then I would start with Holliday as headliner and work from there.  I would also let it be known that I expected at least one "sure-fire" prospect for each player, so don't bother with a bunch of filler even if your organizational filler is better than most.

Losing Holliday makes it a non-starter for me, but I'm also curious about what the price would be for Williams alone.

[deward]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

Well, does this discussion start with Jackson Holliday going back? If so, it’s over before it begins. 

No one is giving up the #1 prospect in baseball for one year of any SP and any reliever.  Edit: Sorry, two years I guess. Still wouldn't make sense.

Edited November 9, 2023 by deward

[LookinUp]

25 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

And I certainly wouldn't even consider parting with Holliday unless a young MLB ready SP is on the table. Burnes doesn't check that box. 

An historical trade that I think is always worth remembering for those seeing what might work, is:

Marlins Trade: Josh Beckett (young stud P), Mike Lowell (expensive, aging good player) and Guillermo Mota (reliever, expensive?), offloaded ~$30 million in future salary

Red Sox Trade: Hanley Ramirez (top SS prospect), Anibal Sanchez (mid-rotation starter) + Jesus Delgado (young minor league starter, not sure how highly he was rated)

I don't think the O's do this trade. They took on an expensive player and gave up a top prospect and decent starter. But I do think this is how trades like this happen. A similar approach for the O's might include taking on a big salary but sending back a guy like Hays or Santander to offset the cash outlay.

For who could I see this happening? Juan Soto. He'd be perfect here, but alas it's almost certainly a pipe dream.

[jamalshw]

It sounds great, but cannot imagine we give up what it takes to get that deal done given Burnes only has the one year left. With that in mind, if I'm going to trade for one of the two of them, it's Williams. I'm personally in the camp of trading for an elite closer and signing Gray or E-Rod. (Of course, I doubt either happens realistically, but that's what I think SHOULD happen). 

If you can put Williams in the 9th inning (or Bednar from the Pirates), you basically recreate what was so HUGE for the Orioles in 2023 with a lockdown 9th, Cano in the 8th and then a selection of lefties and righties to get you there. 

THEN, in 2025, you have one more year of Williams who can give you a nice transition back to Bautista who probably shouldn't be pushed right back into the closer role after missing more than a year. BUT once he's back to form, a tandem of Williams and Bautista, shortens the game to a 7-inning affair. 

[tntoriole]

30 minutes ago, 24fps said:

If I'm Milwaukee and both are packaged together, then I would start with Holliday as headliner and work from there.  I would also let it be known that I expected at least one "sure-fire" prospect for each player, so don't bother with a bunch of filler even if your organizational filler is better than most.

Losing Holliday makes it a non-starter for me, but I'm also curious about what the price would be for Williams alone.

Well if you were Milwaukee, you’d be keeping Burnes and either moving him for less at the deadline or for nothing when he walks