Predict The 2024 OD Payroll Amount

[RZNJ]

This is to get an idea how much you think the Orioles will spend this off-season.  Fangraphs list the end of season payroll at 66M and estimates the 2024 payroll, with no further additions at 74M.   Sportrac had the 2023 number at 71M.  Close enough.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2023/

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/orioles

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

There are so many different versions of payroll. Cot’s says the 26-man payroll was $60.9 mm but the 40-man competitive balance tax payroll was $92.5 mm.   BB-ref says the payroll was $82.8 mm.  Go figure!

I’ll just fudge it and say we will spend $20-30 mm more than whatever our payroll would be if we just stood pat.  

BTW, BB-ref thinks that we’ll be spending $66 mm on Arb players in 2024 but $105 mm in 2025.  
 

[Roll Tide]

I said in the 80s as I don’t expect the leopard to change his spots. Elias will get a modest bump from 71 million last year. Pre Sportstrac the current estimated is just under $80 million.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/payroll/2023/

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There are so many different versions of payroll. Cot’s says the 26-man payroll was $60.9 mm but the 40-man competitive balance tax payroll was $92.5 mm.   BB-ref says the payroll was $82.8 mm.  Go figure!

I’ll just fudge it and say we will spend $20-30 mm more than whatever our payroll would be if we just stood pat.  

BTW, BB-ref thinks that we’ll be spending $66 mm on Arb players in 2024 but $105 mm in 2025.  
 

Click on the Fangraphs link.  They show 17M in “player benefits” that affects the luxury tax payroll but not what is listed as team payroll.

[btdart20]

I think base payroll with break $90m in 2024.  With $100m being the hard cap.

[emmett16]

I think they spend ~20MM on FAs on top of the arb increases.  

[AnythingO's]

I went back on Spotrac and checked the Salary numbers for 2020-2022 and if you DON'T include the deferred salaries (Davis, O'Day,..) then the numbers agree with the Forbes data in my spreadsheet. That method says 2023 was $71 M in Salaries. Interesting that Deferred salary has grown from $4 M to $10 M to $15 M in 2021 to 2023 so that helps to explain the delta between Salaries and Payroll (incl. Expenses) varying from year to year. From 2021 to 2022 Revenue rose $13 M while attendance rose by 7,374 per game. In 2023 Salaries rose $26 M and Operating Income dropped $16 M, so JA took a Profit reduction in 2922. In 2023 attendance rose another 6,368 per game so I estimate Revenue rising another $11-12 M in 2023 which should be applied to Salaries so about $82-83 M.

Edited November 11, 2023 by AnythingO's
typo

[Can_of_corn]

Should have made an under 70 option.  

[Too Tall]

I guessed 90 - 99 because I like to dream! 

[oriole]

I said 110 or above because that’s what it should be. 

[Going Underground]

14 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

I went back on Spotrac and checked the Salary numbers for 2020-2022 and if you DON'T include the deferred salaries (Davis, O'Day,..) then the numbers agree with the Forbes data in my spreadsheet. That method says 2023 was $71 M in Salaries. Interesting that Deferred salary has grown from $4 M to $10 M to $15 M in 2021 to 2023 so that helps to explain the delta between Salaries and Payroll (incl. Expenses) varying from year to year. From 2021 to 2022 Revenue rose $13 M while attendance rose by 7,374 per game. In 2023 Salaries rose $26 M and Operating Income dropped $16 M, so JA took a Profit reduction in 2922. In 2023 attendance rose another 6,368 per game so I estimate Revenue rising another $11-12 M in 2023 which should be applied to Salaries so about $82-83 M.

So JA Jr. X 400 will be the owner in 2922. Will payroll still be below $100 million? Will they still be working on another 2 year lease extension for the 451st time? Still have a lease agreement in principal? 

[O's84]

14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Should have made an under 70 option.  

That would have been par for the course.  

[wildcard]

If Giolito and Neris say yes they will go over 90m.