Cease vs everyone else

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

I’d have said that’s more like the 99th percentile, but Hays is averaging more bWAR so far than Nick

That sounds impossible. Is that true?

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

I don’t get this type of take. In Cowser’s 95th percentile outcome he becomes as good as Hays. It’s not our money, so why get rid of proven talent following up a 101 win season?

Hays has actualized an impressive career for the 91st pick in the draft, but Sigbot expects more from Cowser, whose signing bonus remains about as much as Hays' career earnings to date, with the numbers for the Arb 2024 dance about to become known.

It probably helped Hays build his life mastery of the game of baseball some of the experiences the Orioles granted him in 2017.    At least, he wasn't ruined.

[Spy Fox]

4 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

I’d have said that’s more like the 99th percentile, but Hays is averaging more bWAR so far than Nick

1 minute ago, interloper said:

That sounds impossible. Is that true?

It's true per 162 games across their whole career. But that doesn't account for Markakis' lower performing later years, and the fact that he was more durable than Hays. 

Markakis' WAR through age 27 was 22 and Hays' is 9. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, brooooksy said:

I’d have said that’s more like the 99th percentile, but Hays is averaging more bWAR so far than Nick

Huh?

Ages 22-27:

Hays- 9.0 rWAR, 

Markakis- 22.0 rWAR

 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

It's true per 162 games across their whole career. But that doesn't account for Markakis' lower performing later years, and the fact that he was more durable than Hays. 

Markakis' WAR through age 27 was 22 and Hays' is 9. 

I don’t think it’s fair to ignore nick’s huge outlier season if you’re going to give him a pass for his decline. But yes, he was far, far more durable than Hays, even though I think Hays is better defensively than the metrics would have you believe.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

That sounds impossible. Is that true?

Nope, not even close.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

It's true per 162 games across their whole career. But that doesn't account for Markakis' lower performing later years, and the fact that he was more durable than Hays. 

Markakis' WAR through age 27 was 22 and Hays' is 9. 

Ok yeah, well that's a weird way to look at it then haha. 

That's like saying there's a good chance Hays outpaces Markakis in his career, and that's ... not gonna happen. 

[Spy Fox]

16 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

I don’t get this type of take. In Cowser’s 95th percentile outcome he becomes as good as Hays. It’s not our money, so why get rid of proven talent following up a 101 win season?

On this front, I think Hays is a bit underrated and it's probably a median or better outcome for Cowser to match Hays. But, Cowser's potential OBP advantage is substantial so I think his ceiling outcome is actually a lot better than Hays. 

To me the Cowser 99th percentile is more Christian Yelich.

As for getting rid of proven talent, there's also the 2 years of control vs 6-7 years of control thing.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Nope, not even close.

On a per game basis, yes. And that includes Nick’s insane 2007 he never returned even close to.

My point is if you expect Cowser to be a Markakis type, that means 2.5-3 war a season. Hays is giving you that right now. 

[Spy Fox]

3 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

I don’t think it’s fair to ignore nick’s huge outlier season if you’re going to give him a pass for his decline. But yes, he was far, far more durable than Hays, even though I think Hays is better defensively than the metrics would have you believe.

I'm just saying his later career, and the way it affects his career averages, is less relevant to the discussion. We're talking about Hays' age 28-29 seasons and Cowser's age 24-29 seasons so what Nick did in his 30s isn't as much part of the comparison. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

On this front, I think Hays is a bit underrated and it's probably a median or better outcome for Cowser to match Hays. But, Cowser's potential OBP advantage is substantial so I think his ceiling outcome is actually a lot better than Hays. 

To me the Cowser 99th percentile is more Christian Yelich.

As for getting rid of proven talent, there's also the 2 years of control vs 6-7 years of control thing.

I’ll agree with most of that, except for the median outcome of an unproven player. There’s such a wide range of where he could end up, and just because we’ve had instant successes with Adley, Gunnar, Westburg, it’d be a mistake to assume that all of our prospects will pan out as well.

As for service time, that’s a false choice - we have team control of both, but one is that player right now, and the other you hope turns out as good or better in the next 2-3 years.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, brooooksy said:

On a per game basis, yes. And that includes Nick’s insane 2007 he never returned even close to.

My point is if you expect Cowser to be a Markakis type, that means 2.5-3 war a season. Hays is giving you that right now. 

Comparing Nick's entire career, including his decline years, to just Hays' age 22-27 seasons is silly and worthless.

Markakis in his prime was better than Hays has ever been or will ever be, and prime Markakis is a pretty realistic outcome for Cowser.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Comparing Nick's entire career, including his decline years, to just Hays' age 22-27 seasons is silly and worthless.

Markakis in his prime was better than Hays has ever been or will ever be, and prime Markakis is a pretty realistic outcome for Cowser.

I think you should look more closely at Nick’s career, he was a 2.5-3 war player for about 5 years after an early outlier peak then became a 1.5-2 war guy for a while. You’re getting  2.5-3 war seasons from Hays right now.
 

So unless you’re expecting Cowser to put up multiple 7 war seasons, then the Markakis comp is actually pretty close to Hays’ production!

Edited January 10 by brooooksy

[Moose Milligan]

I hate this thread.  I check the board, I see that it's hot and I'm like "Oh wow, cool, maybe there's some new information about a Cease trade going down."

It's been this way practically every day for over a month and I still haven't learned.  

[Spy Fox]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I hate this thread.  I check the board, I see that it's hot and I'm like "Oh wow, cool, maybe there's some new information about a Cease trade going down."

It's been this way practically every day for over a month and I still haven't learned.  

I've just come to accept that this thread isn't about Cease, it's a meandering exploration of the OH trade zeitgeist. 

If there is any actual Cease news I bet a new thread will be made linking to the report.