Cease vs everyone else

[Sports Guy]

 

[Roll Tide]

20 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The idea of trading someone else for prospects to flip for Cease is just overly complicated and unrealistic.  Why do we need other prospects again?  We have a stockpile and 3 upcoming first rd picks.  I believe we have the 8th overall in terms of bonus pool money for the draft.  If we can't make a Cease deal work it's because Elias and Getz differ on what Cease's value is.  It's not for lack of prospects.  

We can talk about Mullins and Hays for 2025.  What should we do with them?  Both might be similar to Santander this year where their 2025 year with us would be worth more than they would bring back in a trade.  They'd just have a better chance of getting a QO and bringing back a comp pick.  

It also seems that the trade talks for Cease started last deadline with Holliday.  We may have offered Mayo or Basallo then, because we were getting 3 potential post seasons out of Cease.  Now the talks should progress to the tier of Westburg, Cowser, and Kjerstad, as the headliner.  

According to the White Sox board they were saying Getz was looking for a top positional prospect, a top pitching prospect , and two other good but not ranked in the top 100 guys. The idea was getting both Cease and Robert and filling the need for a top pitching prospect that we dont currently have. - Also the Padres plan to compete and want veteran hitters such as Santander.

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

According to the White Sox board they were saying Getz was looking for a top positional prospect, a top pitching prospect , and two other good but not ranked in the top 100 guys. The idea was getting both Cease and Robert and filling the need for a top pitching prospect that we dont currently have. - Also the Padres plan to compete and want veteran hitters such as Santander.

That's alot of conjecture.  Heck, for all we know Getz could've moved passed demanding Holliday, but is now demanding Basallo or Mayo.  That's an instant no.  It's an easier sell for Getz to play this to the bone, and be willing to go to the trade deadline, then it is for him to give his fans an "underwhelming" return.  Why not gamble?  They're rebuilding anyways.  

Edited January 11 by sportsfan8703

[GoldGlove21]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

That's alot of conjecture.  Heck, for all we know Getz could've moved passed demanding Holliday, but is now demanding Basallo or Mayo.  That's an instant no.  It's an easier sell for Getz to play this to the bone, and be willing to go to the trade deadline, then it is for him to give his fans an "underwhelming" return.  Why not gamble?  They're rebuilding anyways.  

Wouldn't you get as good of a deal now and not risk Cease getting injured or having a down season? If he gets hurt you would be back at the table again a year from now, but then he has less team control and is coming off an injury.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why not gamble? 

Because you may walk away from the table empty-handed.

If Cease gets injured or has another middling year, their return could go from something like Westburg/Povich/Beavers to something like Billy Cook/Juan Nunez.

[deward]

3 minutes ago, GoldGlove21 said:

Wouldn't you get as good of a deal now and not risk Cease getting injured or having a down season? If he gets hurt you would be back at the table again a year from now, but then he has less team control and is coming off an injury.

It would be a high-risk, high-reward kind of gamble. If Cease come blazing out of the gates and pitches like it's 2022 for the first half of the year, then his value would shoot up quite a bit, even with less months of control. OTOH, if he comes out and looks like he did in 2023 (or gets hurt, of course), then his value craters. It really depends on how confident the Sox are that Cease will pitch well for the first few months.

[interloper]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Boy that is cheap. 

So is Bieber honestly. 

[RZNJ]

Wonder what the Guardians want for Bieber or maybe they are holding onto him.   No rumors at all on Bieber.

[Sports Guy]

@Chicago White Sox was telling me that from what the WS org is saying in public, the thought is that they want to contend sooner than later and that the thought is this won’t drag out for 3-5 years.

If true, then we are definitely a good match for them and that includes Ortiz imo.

[ChicagoTerp]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I've thought the impending arbitration was a potential hurdle both teams may have wanted to get past before moving forward with something. We'll see if that proves true.

[Just Regular]

I've read Cleveland doesn't really have much depth at SP so if they really are just so cheap as to not want to pay Bieber his late Arb money when his stuff is past peak, they might want a Ryan Pepiot or Dean Kremer or Cole Irvin kind of performer back so Jose Ramirez doesn't get even more distressed about his long-term commitment, especially with Tito gone.

I'd be awfully tempted to move Basallo or Mayo if it was a Jose Ramirez try.

Shane Bieber is a lot more accomplished, but I don't think he has much more final Arb year trade value than Anthony Santander.

[sportsfan8703]

43 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Because you may walk away from the table empty-handed.

If Cease gets injured or has another middling year, their return could go from something like Westburg/Povich/Beavers to something like Billy Cook/Juan Nunez.

Yeah, an injury is an easier sell to his fanbase than an underwhelming return.  Plus, as long as Cease avoids a labrum tear/TJ, he'll be the prized available deadline arm.  Last offseason was a fluke with so many arms available.  What's sad is that we still chose to go cheap with Flaherty.  In terms of prospects and money owed post deadline.  

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Yeah, an injury is an easier sell to his fanbase than an underwhelming return.  Plus, as long as Cease avoids a labrum tear/TJ, he'll be the prized available deadline arm.  Last offseason was a fluke with so many arms available.  What's sad is that we still chose to go cheap with Flaherty.  In terms of prospects and money owed post deadline.  

An injury will not be easily sold to a fan base if he passes on a deal consisting of Westburg/Povich/Beavers. 

Any number of injuries could make teams wary of offering "prized available deadline arm" compensation.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

he'll be the prized available deadline arm

If he's healthy.

If he's performing better than 2023.

Both of those are big if's though.

[Billy F-Face3]

I heard the rumor that White Sox wants Coby Mayo and another top prospect for Cease. That's a huge over pay.

I've been saying for months that any talk of trading for Cease is futile. It's wasted energy because the price is so high and the risk vs reward leaves the risk sitting the highest of all.  If you trade a top prospect, there's data to suggest the probability will be that Cease puts up numbers inferior to what Gibson did. At least Gibson provided reliable innings and could go deep into games regularly when we needed it to save the bullpen.