Winter Meetings Thread

[B-more]

https://www.si.com/mlb/orioles/news/orioles-may-be-eyeing-even-bigger-blockbuster-trade-than-previously-thought

 

Any thoughts on these targets and the packages to get them?

[Snutchy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Might be tough to get him without using Mayo or Basallo plus the Cease package.     He’s got 4 years of control but pitchers break.

They all break. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Snutchy said:

They all break. 

He’s got 3 years.  The problem is that we don’t know if those guys are even available.  Going to take a Cease like package for either Luzardo or Skubal.  

Edited December 4, 2023 by RZNJ

[24fps]

3 minutes ago, B-more said:

https://www.si.com/mlb/orioles/news/orioles-may-be-eyeing-even-bigger-blockbuster-trade-than-previously-thought

 

Any thoughts on these targets and the packages to get them?

Quote

The Baltimore Orioles were always predicted to make a large splash this winter. Reports suggested they would and will play at the top of the pitching market. For many, that means pursuing high-profile free agents to round out the roster that won 101 wins last season. 

This quote alone raises a red flag for me. 

I am not convinced that Kade Kistner (by his own modest admission a driving force in sports journalism) is 1. not AI to begin with (see below), and 2. not some random 23 year-old recent journalism grad with $80,000 in student loan debt and visions of being the next Ken Rosenthal currently working 16 freelance sports gigs hoping to avoid eating dog food for the third night in a row.

Also note that SI has been busted a couple of times recently for using AI without notifying its readers.

https://www.latimes.com/business/technology/story/2023-12-01/column-the-depressing-fall-of-sports-illustrated-reveals-the-real-tragedy-of-ai

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/28/sports-illustrated-ai-articles/

 

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, B-more said:

https://www.si.com/mlb/orioles/news/orioles-may-be-eyeing-even-bigger-blockbuster-trade-than-previously-thought

 

Any thoughts on these targets and the packages to get them?

I don’t believe Skubal is available and I think the overpayment it would take to get him would be over the top.

Luzardo is interesting. He just had an actual full season. Before last year, he just hadn’t been that durable. 
 

I would like to get him but I’m not sure I trade much more for him than I would for Cease. 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, 24fps said:

This quote alone raises a red flag for me. 

I am not convinced that Kade Kistner (by his own modest admission a driving force in sports journalism) is 1. not AI to begin with (see below), and 2. not some random 23 year-old recent journalism grad with $80,000 in student loan debt and visions of being the next Ken Rosenthal currently working 16 freelance sports gigs hoping to avoid eating dog food for the third night in a row.

Also note that SI has been busted a couple of times recently for using AI without notifying its readers.

https://www.latimes.com/business/technology/story/2023-12-01/column-the-depressing-fall-of-sports-illustrated-reveals-the-real-tragedy-of-ai

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/28/sports-illustrated-ai-articles/

 

The actual story is by Rosenthal in the Athletic.

[RZNJ]

The Braves strike.  Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzalez, Evan White for Jackson Kowar, and Cole Phillips.

Kowar has been horrible in parts of 3 years and Phillips is a 20 yo RHP who was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and still hasn’t made his debut.  Almost seems like a dump by the Mariners.   Mainers with a big FA signing coming up.  They needed offense and have traded their 3B and LF and non tendered their RF.  Hmmmm.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Edited December 4, 2023 by RZNJ

[24fps]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The actual story is by Rosenthal in the Athletic.

...seem... could... say (as in for example)... followed by two paragraphs describing Luzardo's resumé looks more like a deadline-induced throwaway than a report to me.

Rosenthal is real, but quotes attributed to him are unlikely to be legally contested as long as they're correct, and that opens up a very large opportunity to play fast-and-loose with the appearance of journalistic credibility.

 

[Sports Guy]

Really interesting trade here:

Does getting Gonzalez put Atlanta out on Cease . You would think no but they have 4 other starters. Unless they are trading Fried, they may not need anyone else.

Does trading Kellenic increase the need of the Mariners to get positional talent?  Of course, trading Gonzalez may make their pitching harder to get now.

Both of those things could impact the Os.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

Trade Santander and ERod becomes a net gain of $8 million-ish.  We need a spot for Kjerstad/Cowser after all, right?

I think at this moment in time, Santander is too valuable to the offensive production to be able to trade for a pitcher. He's the most productive RBI guy we have and the only true Middle Of the Order Bat we have. (Although I think Gunnar could soon be considered as one.) Yes, Kjerstad and Cowswer can be considered to get playing time but we've already seen how that went for Cowser in 2023 and we witnessed Gunnar struggle to hit at the beginning of his Rookie season he got off to a slow start. So having a reliable established bat like Santander to cushion that learning curve will be essential. It's essential to have established reliable production in the lineup while those guys make progress in their development before they can be relied on to replace any starter. Maybe in 2025 it will be possible to count on the young guns as reliable starting outfielders, but I'm not doing it to start 2024.

[jcaponio]

Gonzalez is just a salary dump. He probably wasn’t going to make the Mariners rotation anyway, and he’s nothing more than a #5 option for Atlanta who they would easily bump if they can trade for someone else. 

[24fps]

3 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I think at this moment in time, Santander is too valuable to the offensive production to be able to trade for a pitcher. He's the most productive RBI guy we have and the only true Middle Of the Order Bat we have. (Although I think Gunnar could soon be considered as one.) Yes, Kjerstad and Cowswer can be considered to get playing time but we've already seen how that went for Cowser in 2023 and we witnessed Gunnar struggle to hit at the beginning of his Rookie season he got off to a slow start. So having a reliable established bat like Santander to cushion that learning curve will be essential. It's essential to have established reliable production in the lineup while those guys make progress in their development before they can be relied on to replace any starter. Maybe in 2025 it will be possible to count on the young guns as reliable starting outfielders, but I'm not doing it to start 2024.

A completely reasonable position IMO.  My point was that without a substantial increase in payroll (which I don't expect) tradeoffs will be the order of the day and acquiring a FA starter might require gambling on a rookie elsewhere beyond everyone's comfort zone.  Perhaps Elias' as well.

[Spy Fox]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Really interesting trade here:

Does getting Gonzalez put Atlanta out on Cease . You would think no but they have 4 other starters. Unless they are trading Fried, they may not need anyone else.

Does trading Kellenic increase the need of the Mariners to get positional talent?  Of course, trading Gonzalez may make their pitching harder to get now.

Both of those things could impact the Os.

I doubt Gonzales would put the Braves out on Cease any more than Cole Irvin puts the Orioles out on Cease. 

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I think at this moment in time, Santander is too valuable to the offensive production to be able to trade for a pitcher. He's the most productive RBI guy we have and the only true Middle Of the Order Bat we have. (Although I think Gunnar could soon be considered as one.) Yes, Kjerstad and Cowswer can be considered to get playing time but we've already seen how that went for Cowser in 2023 and we witnessed Gunnar struggle to hit at the beginning of his Rookie season he got off to a slow start. So having a reliable established bat like Santander to cushion that learning curve will be essential. It's essential to have established reliable production in the lineup while those guys make progress in their development before they can be relied on to replace any starter. Maybe in 2025 it will be possible to count on the young guns as reliable starting outfielders, but I'm not doing it to start 2024.

If Elias is following his plan trading Santander happens now or at the deadline. I know we are competing but he’s too valuable to let walk after the season for nothing. I’m not convinced they will tender him based on the projected salary so you can’t point to a comp pick we may not receive. I think decisions like this are the Orioles operating standard under Elias as long as John Angelos is the decision maker.

[wildcard]

IMO

Most likely FA signings:  Uwasawa or Lorenzen, Robertson

Most likely trades: Urias, Stowers and Norby for pitching prospects.