Realistic Free Agent #3 Pitchers

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think a lot will happen between now and the end of next week. 

Now that the dominoes are falling.... Michael Lorenzen here we come!!! 

[Roll Tide]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/jesus-luzardo-drawing-trade-interest.html?utm_source=twitter

[ScGO's]

On 12/14/2023 at 8:51 PM, ScGO's said:

I think it might be likely that this is the route Elias goes, especially if he can't find a trade for a pitcher.  The Kimbrel signing for $13 Million is pretty telling on what Elias will probably spend on a Free Agent #3 Pitcher. It will be an arm that he feels he can sign for 1-2 years for 10 to 18 Million a year

These are my best guesses as to who he's been on the phone with and what it might take to bring them to Baltimore. This also doesn't mean I want to sign any of these guy in particular (heck Jack Flaherty's on the list). For these prices, who is worth it in Elias' eyes and budget?

Marcus Stroman - 2 Year 36 Million

Hyun Jin Ryu - 1 Year 10 Million

Michael Wacha - 2 Year 32 Million

Mike Clevinger - 2 Year 28 Million

Lucas Giolito - 1 Year 18 Million

Jack Flaherty - 1 Year 12 Million

Martin Perez - 1 Year 11 Million

Cory Kluber - 1 Year 8 Million

James Paxton - 1 year 9 Million

Michael Lorenzen - 2 year 20 Million

Frankie Montas - 1 Year 12 Million

Giolito is off the list. Who is left? Who makes sense?

I'd go Stroman for $38 mil, 2 years

Still intrigued by Paxton and Montas

[ofan239]

We could have  had sonny gray at 3 years at 75mm but like always we wait for the market to set before striking . Just once I’d like to see us make a bold move early.  This year would have been the year . We know what we need . Make the move early . Instead we wait and will probably have to overpay for Michael Lorenzen.

[bpilktree]

23 minutes ago, ofan239 said:

We could have  had sonny gray at 3 years at 75mm but like always we wait for the market to set before striking . Just once I’d like to see us make a bold move early.  This year would have been the year . We know what we need . Make the move early . Instead we wait and will probably have to overpay for Michael Lorenzen.

We are not paying anyone especially a pitcher 25 million year for 3 years it doesn’t matter if he signed early or waited til spring training.  

[Jim'sKid26]

I like this guy:

Fangraphs has him projected at 26 starts, 142 IP, 4.02 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 24.4 percent K%, 8.2 percent BB%, 2.3 fWAR. 

Can you get him for a 1/$9M with an option? Seems like a pretty good value.

TJS robbed him of the entire 2022 campaign. He was 19 starts, 96 IP, 4.50 ERA (101 ERA+), 4.68 FIP, 3.98 xFIP, 24.6 percent K%, 8.0 percent BB%, 1.0 fWAR in 2023. He did maintain his effectiveness into the second half, with a 3.34 ERA across 16 starts totaling 86.1 innings. But he started to fatigue after the Trade Deadline and looked very bad in his final three appearances, giving up 17 runs (16 earned) in just 9.2 innings (14.90 ERA), walking more than he struck out to drag down his overall numbers for the year. Also, the velocity and movement on his pitches got progressively worse from the end of July through the conclusion of the regular season. Metrics like exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and xwOBA skyrocketed by the end of August.

If he can bounce back next year with a full off season of training he would be a bargain. Injuries are the issue, along with age, but he was once one of the best LHSP in the game. 

[Roll Tide]

13 hours ago, bpilktree said:

We are not paying anyone especially a pitcher 25 million year for 3 years it doesn’t matter if he signed early or waited til spring training.  

Yep …instead we will overpay a guy like Stroman $20 million per and live with the considerably worse performance. Penny smart and pound foolish.

[ThisIsBirdland]

Montas off the board. 1/$16m to the Reds. 

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Montas off the board. 1/$16m to the Reds. 

Guess they figured they'd rather keep their entire farm system than give it to CWS for Cease. Getz lost some more leverage by losing the Reds. I hope the O's do something similar.

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

Guess they figured they'd rather keep their entire farm system than give it to CWS for Cease. Getz lost some more leverage by losing the Reds. I hope the O's do something similar.

Every time one of these risky rebound SPs signs for more money than Cease will earn this year the WS board seems to think it only adds to their leverage

 

[Malike]

8 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Every time one of these risky rebound SPs signs for more money than Cease will earn this year the WS board seems to think it only adds to their leverage

 

Less competition usually means less leverage.

[Aristotelian]

17 hours ago, ofan239 said:

We could have  had sonny gray at 3 years at 75mm but like always we wait for the market to set before striking . Just once I’d like to see us make a bold move early.  This year would have been the year . We know what we need . Make the move early . Instead we wait and will probably have to overpay for Michael Lorenzen.

We struck early on Lyles and Adam Frazier! Gray would have been my guy. I understand $75M is too much but I think we will regret passing on him. Holding out hope for Stroman or a trade.

[ScGO's]

What's left with adjusted salary estimates

Marcus Stroman - 2 Year 40 Million

Hyun Jin Ryu - 1 Year 14 Million

Mike Clevinger - 2 Year 35 Million

Cory Kluber - 1 Year 8 Million

James Paxton - 1 year 14 Million

Michael Lorenzen - 2 year 28 Million

Alex Wood - 2 year 30 Million

 

[emmett16]

Shane Bieber is starting to look like a good target for a Gibson upgrade.  I’m not intrigued by any of the FA pitchers.  

[ThisIsBirdland]

11 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

What's left with adjusted salary estimates

Marcus Stroman - 2 Year 40 Million

Hyun Jin Ryu - 1 Year 14 Million

Mike Clevinger - 2 Year 35 Million

Cory Kluber - 1 Year 8 Million

James Paxton - 1 year 14 Million

Michael Lorenzen - 2 year 28 Million

Alex Wood - 2 year 30 Million

 

Starting to talk myself into 1 year of Ryu or Paxton with the idea of either of them giving way to Wells, Hall, Irvin, McDermott, or Povich when they inevitably get injured. I’ve wanted one of Cease, Burnes, Luzardo, Valdez or Bieber but if the prospect cost is at all too painful, which for all besides Bieber I imagine it may be, give me a low end potential upside FA until the trade deadline. I’m all for moving non top-3 prospects for these guys but not in multi-high level prospect packages it sounds like teams may be holding out for.